Search found 56 matches

by magneto
Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP or Buy a new House
Replies: 49
Views: 23526

Re: PP or Buy a new House

Should we ask money (loan) to the bank and pay X % interest rate to the bank and keep a PP or pay the house 100% advanced ? What would be the maximum interest rate that would make you keep the PP and a loan? Seem to be in a minority here.  We regard Residential Real Estate as a fine asset class, in...
by magneto
Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What happens if stocks tank?
Replies: 16
Views: 9460

Re: What happens if stocks tank?

With QE etc, continue with the belief that too much money is chasing the limited supply of assets. We know bonds are expensive with low yields after the 30 year plus bull market. Stocks as OP observes have had a good run, and now look toppy by historic valuations, see:- http://www.smithers.co.uk/pag...
by magneto
Thu Aug 28, 2014 4:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Whats up with bonds?
Replies: 4
Views: 3599

Re: Whats up with bonds?

Here in the UK Gov't Bonds (Gilts) are also on a tear.
All asset classes are rising together (Stocks/Bonds/Real Estate).
IMHO we are seeing too much money slopping around the system chasing a limited supply of assets.
by magneto
Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Real Estate in the PP
Replies: 15
Views: 7812

Re: Real Estate in the PP

I think I understand the PP well enough to answer this question but I though I'd toss it to all of you who are far more experienced than I am.  If I wanted to buy real estate for an investment (as a rental property) where does that fit into the PP?  Is that solely a VP investment?  Would it be fool...
by magneto
Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Real Estate in the PP
Replies: 15
Views: 7812

Re: Real Estate in the PP

I consider real estate to be a VERY poor substitute for gold. It does not have the portability, divisibility, relative immunity to government confiscation, high liquidity, or many valuable attributes that that gold has. In fact, I don't consider real estate a desirable investment at all. I "ow...
by magneto
Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Financial benefit of reading Ben Graham's book knowing Warren Buffett's alpha?
Replies: 5
Views: 4896

Re: Financial benefit of reading Ben Graham's book knowing Warren Buffett's alpha?

One of the key points noted from Graham's book was :- ‘Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings.  There are two possible wa...
by magneto
Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I broke the golden rule
Replies: 20
Views: 11151

Re: I broke the golden rule

Bit of a coincidence.  We reduced our stocks and bonds significantly last week also.  The trigger was my wife expressing interest in a house which we suspect could come on the market.  Thought it prudent to sell stocks/bonds while they were fully valued, rather than maybe be a forced seller when bot...
by magneto
Thu Apr 03, 2014 9:57 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Allocation to non-US stocks
Replies: 20
Views: 14027

Re: Allocation to non-US stocks

UK investor here with stocks at :- 1/3rd domestic 2/3rds global but thinking maybe 100% global is optimal. We should not forget the oft quoted example of the hapless Japanese investor should he have invested 100% domestic. The currency effect for non-domestic stocks tends to cancel out over time as ...
by magneto
Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What are some good personal finance books esp. considering the UK system?
Replies: 8
Views: 4312

Re: What are some good personal finance books esp. considering the UK system?

Smarter Investing by Tim Hale is often highly recommended, and I agree as first choice. Beginners' Guide to Investment by Bernard Gray Investing for the Long Term by Robert Linggard The last two are fairly old and may be out of print, and are not as good as the first. With most investment books bein...
by magneto
Sat Dec 21, 2013 8:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What Happened to PP in 2013?
Replies: 21
Views: 13490

Re: What Happened to PP in 2013?

A year ago I was teetering on the edge of setting up a full PP with part of our assets, but concerns about the pricing of gold and LT Bonds held me back.  What is surprising is how well the PP has held up with those two asset classes in such decline.  Very impressive.  Stocks did the heavy lifting. ...
by magneto
Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 126784

Re: PP investors--stay the course

So tell me, is the S&P 500, Gold or LTT cheap? Also, posting my emotions on this forum is both therapeutic and conforting to others who may experience similar anxiety with our investments. To chip in on the conversation, an appreciation on valuations can be useful.  As commented on Bogleheads, ...
by magneto
Tue Sep 17, 2013 2:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 25332

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

It appears as if 2 of the 3 PP assets (GLD and TLT) are the pariahs of the investment world and I am the fool that is left holding the bag. I'm starting to loathe this portfolio...perhaps it was a mistake... After the 32 year bull run for bonds and the later surge in gold, we shouldn't be surprised...
by magneto
Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:13 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Setting up the stock part of the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 7262

Re: Setting up the stock part of the PP

UK investor here.  The UK represents about 8% world cap.

Have settled on :-

1/3rd domestic UK
2/3rds global

Have no special insight but it feels comfortable.  Hope that helps.
by magneto
Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Invest it all now or invest in PP over time?
Replies: 4
Views: 3560

Re: Invest it all now or invest in PP over time?

'- Should I invest it all at once or dollar cost average things in over a few months?' If DCA is chosen then to be worthwhile IMHO the period to invest should at least encompass a full business cycle (4 years or so) to ensure some buying in market troughs. Not being an 'all in' sort of guy, I prefer...
by magneto
Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book
Replies: 43
Views: 34207

Re: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book

I find this thread refreshing.  While a great admirer of the HBPP and MT and Craig, I find myself unable to totally commit.  My problem is that the HBPP requires me to stop thinking and just follow a system.  It is as worrying as the constant refrain from Bogleheds to just 'stay the course'. When ma...
by magneto
Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Adding the Miners
Replies: 6
Views: 4051

Re: Adding the Miners

Yes I have recently become aware of the low correlation between miners, and oil companies, versus other stocks.  As a result have been adding to a UK commodities investment trust (closed end fund) BRCI which is currently undergoing a period of weakness.

Regards
by magneto
Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Which Is The Most Over-Valued Component?
Replies: 26
Views: 10862

Re: Which Is The Most Over-Valued Component?

If we look at the REAL yields presently available (for a UK investor) based on long term inflation rate of 3.1% :-

Stocks            3.4%
LT Bonds          0.3%
Gold                -3.1%
Cash              -0.6%

What do you think?
by magneto
Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:47 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: TIPS vs I-Bonds
Replies: 2
Views: 2904

Re: TIPS vs I-Bonds

Thanks for the information.  Remember I Bonds are cash, whereas TIPS are bonds and therefore if located anywhere in the PP would be in the Bond allocation.  However the last time I mentioned TIPS I was told in no uncertain terms they have no place in the PP!
by magneto
Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Global Stocks in UK PP
Replies: 2
Views: 2312

Re: Global Stocks in UK PP

While still uncertain about the best option to suit the PP, have checked own holdings built up fairly randomly over many years and find the UK stock holding to be presently 31% of stocks.

50/50 may be the safest option but we feel more comfortable at about a third.
by magneto
Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: UK PP & ISAs
Replies: 3
Views: 2491

Re: UK PP & ISAs

Drifting off topic perhaps, am never too clear with the PP whether for a UK investor keeping purely to UK stocks is sensible.  The UK seems something of a backwater and represents about 8% of world stocks as far as I can recall. Clive or someone may have data on performance comparisons between UK on...
by magneto
Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Farmland as Part of the PP?
Replies: 19
Views: 7526

Re: Farmland as Part of the PP?

We went heavily into rental real estate here in the UK in the late 1990s when gross yields exceeded 10%, while stocks were yielding about 2%.  With hindsight it was the best move in 40 years of investing.  Rents have been increasing in line with inflation since and the capital has comfortably more t...
by magneto
Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How about 1/3 TLT, 1/3 GLD, 1/3 SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 3678

Re: How about 1/3 TLT, 1/3 GLD, 1/3 SPY?

Thanks a lot, Storm for your comments. That is what I am planning to do, even put the cash in a fixed deposit with 4% annual return for say, 5 years. Of course, at the same time, as I am working I would have relatively good liquidity position in terms of emergency fund or living expensese, etc. Wou...
by magneto
Wed May 02, 2012 12:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2012 performance
Replies: 257
Views: 74396

Re: 2012 performance

Clive wrote:

The treasury aren't issuing Inflation bonds (index linked savings certificates).



JMHO.


Is it definite that there will be no IL Savings Certs this year?  I was waiting and hoping for some news soon of a new issue.
by magneto
Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:25 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: FTSE UK local index
Replies: 4
Views: 3740

Re: FTSE UK local index

for PP purposes, have you deviated from the FTSE UK local index? what are you using? On the face of it finding / using a FTSE Local UK index fund would be difficult as the FTSE Local UK index doesn't seem to be widely used. Pragmatically it would be a difficult case to make as all the cheap index f...
by magneto
Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Improving on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 142
Views: 69182

Re: Improving on the Permanent Portfolio

Clive wrote :- Ideally you want to be holding assets that have high volatility, inverse correlation and individually provide positive real (after inflation) gains through price appreciation and/or income. unquote The mention of inverse correlation triggered a thought that has been confusing me for s...