Search found 11 matches

by 425
Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 239
Views: 124652

Re: BTC in the PP

If we ever get to a bitcoin standard, it is going to be a gradual process of increasing adoption and some things that don't look likely today could look more likely in the future. If you really believe that governments were only able to move away from the gold standard due to it being more convenien...
by 425
Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 239
Views: 124652

Re: BTC in the PP

Of course the total bitcoin is not going to increase, ever. However, I don’t think you can really comapre it to physical items. You can’t increase the calories in either of those two slices of pizza. Bitcoin is abstract, however, and the value is perceived. The value of those new pieces of freshly ...
by 425
Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 239
Views: 124652

Re: BTC in the PP

The price is all about the demand. This would only be true if the liquid supply was only provided by the miners. One could argue that below a certain price the newly mined bitcoin could become insignificant relative to net inflows. Price is set on the margins so I think as price goes higher there w...
by 425
Fri Mar 22, 2024 1:12 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 5958

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

My belief is that you want to be fully exposed to beta/market risk/equity premium/systematic credit risk and that any attempt to tilt could be detrimental to the PP on a risk adjusted basis. If you were equities only, my understanding is that theory suggests you can improve your capital efficiency (...
by 425
Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP as Emergency Fund / Income Source
Replies: 8
Views: 734

Re: PP as Emergency Fund / Income Source

When you first wrote this my thoughts were, if you're going to commit to buying a 1 year T-bill every month and spend the maturing one, then it's not really doing much since we're dealing with such short duration they are basically the same thing. It was where you get the new cash to purchase the ne...
by 425
Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 239
Views: 124652

Re: BTC in the PP

Thanks for sharing this article. I agree with a lot of it, especially on the point about storing energy or past "work done" in units of a monetary system. For bitcoin to work as a store of value, bitcoin has to increase in adoption meaning that there has to be a number of miners who will s...
by 425
Tue Mar 19, 2024 5:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP as Emergency Fund / Income Source
Replies: 8
Views: 734

Re: PP as Emergency Fund / Income Source

The PP isn't reliable enough to provide a 1 year positive return over cash in a FDIC savings account. This is why I do the same thing but 5 years out instead and make sure that the cash you are spending isn't part of the cash portion because like many have mentioned before, the cash serves a purpose...
by 425
Sun Mar 17, 2024 4:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 36
Views: 2901

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

4) Cryptocurrency is pure speculation. I'd only do it for the VP and would never rely on it to remain intact based on my 30+ years in information security. Virtually EVERY cryptographic system has experienced being broken or serious degradation to long-term security in significant ways. This includ...
by 425
Sun Mar 17, 2024 2:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 904

Re: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?

Who on the forum has actually had the fortitude to stick with the canonical PP's allocation to long-term bonds? Just curious. I have stuck to the 25% long term bonds. At first it appears that having exposure to 10 to 15 year duration US treasuries is a sure way to lose purchasing power in a system ...
by 425
Sat Feb 03, 2024 6:37 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 36370

Re: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF

That's a good point, thanks Smith. I suppose even with 1/3 of the assets held under money market collateral that the risk of both the borrower defaulting and the value of the collateral crashing (which historically breaking the buck at 3% was already bad enough) at the same time is low enough not to...
by 425
Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:56 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 36370

Re: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF

Interested in CBIL, but I'm concerned that they don't have any financial statements released yet and their prospectus shows they have specifically appointed a securities lending agent (CIBC). Compared to CMR, which shows no income from securities lending as of its most recent financial statements, i...