Search found 65 matches

by ArthurPooh
Fri May 03, 2024 11:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 50
Views: 15934

Re: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio

long term bonds and if short term bonds funds were used , them too, plus a negative year for equities in 2022. like i said years ago , rising rates would be kryptonite to the pp Aren't they a killer of any portfolio that heavily relies on nominal bonds? Many people over at the Bogleheads forum were...
by ArthurPooh
Fri May 03, 2024 9:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 50
Views: 15934

Re: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio

mathjak107 wrote: Wed May 01, 2024 7:52 am from 2021 it’s just about been flat

100k has gained about 1200 bucks from jan 2021 to april 30th 1 2024 . a .38% cagr


https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... SUlrdyQOt3
It's mostly the long bonds' fault, isn't it?
by ArthurPooh
Fri May 03, 2024 9:11 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Disconnecting productivity from consumption
Replies: 8
Views: 223

Re: Disconnecting productivity from consumption

As I've stated in the other thread, this is the human norm - working poor finance the idle owners. On the flip side, owners create firms that employ the working poor. The janitors at MSFT never had to incur the opportunity cost of studying information technology, but they benefit from Bill Gate's p...
by ArthurPooh
Thu May 02, 2024 12:54 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Disconnecting productivity from consumption
Replies: 8
Views: 223

Re: Disconnecting productivity from consumption

As I've stated in the other thread, this is the human norm - working poor finance the idle owners. On the flip side, owners create firms that employ the working poor. The janitors at MSFT never had to incur the opportunity cost of studying information technology, but they benefit from Bill Gate's p...
by ArthurPooh
Thu May 02, 2024 3:16 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Disconnecting productivity from consumption
Replies: 8
Views: 223

Re: Disconnecting productivity from consumption

Maybe this is a weird tangent that no one sane would associate with your initial post, but there's no forum rule against mental illness, so... There once was a civilization where: the ruler was considered a living god, whose daily activities controlled all social and natural phenomena, and whose goo...
by ArthurPooh
Wed May 01, 2024 4:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Disconnecting productivity from consumption
Replies: 8
Views: 223

Re: Disconnecting productivity from consumption

As I've stated in the other thread, this is the human norm - working poor finance the idle owners. Moreover, modern economy could not function without it - when the issue of new debt stops for even a minute, the economy contracts and the poor suffer even more. Ancient societies used to either hold a...
by ArthurPooh
Tue Apr 30, 2024 3:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 55
Views: 4223

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

dualstow wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2024 11:54 am
ArthurPooh wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2024 10:42 am Yes, exactly. Medieval peasants couldn't just frugal themselves into becoming knights,

But squires could “feudal” themselves into becoming knights O0
But I assume a passive squire would not get very far.
by ArthurPooh
Tue Apr 30, 2024 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 55
Views: 4223

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

By ‘switch sides’ you mean graduate from a serf to a nobleman? Yes, exactly. Medieval peasants couldn't just frugal themselves into becoming knights, and actual slaves/serfs in many human societies had no chance of changing their situation at all. In contrast, in last several decades there were pro...
by ArthurPooh
Mon Apr 29, 2024 3:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 55
Views: 4223

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

I still can’t get over the idea that one can generate wealth- ok, can generate income , from interest and dividends. Of course I understand the concept. You’re renting out your money, like a landlord rents out living space. But…I didn’t sweat for it. And I didn’t invent anything. I’m not complainin...
by ArthurPooh
Fri Apr 26, 2024 8:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 30
Views: 24949

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

Thanks for the well-wishes, Hal. You always post the best links.
by ArthurPooh
Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 30
Views: 24949

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

For anyone who might have been interested in my thoughts here and on the other thread : the final allocation we have decided on and are investing in right now is: 50% developed country stocks (in which 25% large and mid-cap and 25% small cap), 25% cash, 25% gold. Minor details still to be ironed out...
by ArthurPooh
Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:30 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Taxes
Replies: 28
Views: 1319

Re: Taxes

Pointedstick wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 11:08 am So maybe this whole "we pay half of our money to the government!" meme is a bunch of baloney pushed by people trying to make you mad and turn off your brain so you'll make bad decisions that just so happen to serve their purposes.
What are some examples of these bad decisions?
by ArthurPooh
Tue Apr 09, 2024 11:27 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Taxes
Replies: 28
Views: 1319

Re: Taxes

Jack Jones wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 4:36 am When born under such conditions, it seems like non-participation and retreating to the frontier is the best you can do.
And yet people still roll their eyes when I talk about colonizing Antarctica...
by ArthurPooh
Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:16 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Occupied Land acknowledgements
Replies: 16
Views: 1298

Re: Occupied Land acknowledgements

I can't believe I was vaguely aware of this song (as in I recognize the tune) yet I've never associated it with Australia or any political themes. "Give it back" is a quite creepy line. And it seems somewhat grotesque to me that such a song is sung by a guy who looks like elderly Reinhard...
by ArthurPooh
Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:08 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Zimbabwe announces return to the gold standard
Replies: 5
Views: 507

Re: Zimbabwe announces return to the gold standard

Is it redeemable for USD and gold, or what? Apparently it's not redeemable for gold. It's supposedly "backed" by USD and gold. I think after the Zim dollar failed there have been two supposedly USD-pegged currency systems already and they did not stay pegged for too long. This seems like ...
by ArthurPooh
Sat Apr 06, 2024 2:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 86
Views: 78909

Re: Why the big move in gold?

But back to my main point. Looking for a reliable site for the "real" rate of inflation, not the official CPI-U rate (which I would be heartened to hear is actually accurate). An alternative explanation of the CPI not reflecting the true inflation rate is the suppression of purchasing pow...
by ArthurPooh
Fri Apr 05, 2024 3:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investments Versus Liquidity
Replies: 3
Views: 411

Re: Investments Versus Liquidity

Lets consider investments to be money we give to other people in the hope that it grows, and liquidity to be the money we set aside to ensure we can meet our day to day obligations “whatever the future brings”. From this lens, stocks are investments and bonds, cash, and gold are about liquidity, ri...
by ArthurPooh
Fri Apr 05, 2024 3:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Occupied Land acknowledgements
Replies: 16
Views: 1298

Re: Occupied Land acknowledgements

I can't believe I was vaguely aware of this song (as in I recognize the tune) yet I've never associated it with Australia or any political themes. "Give it back" is a quite creepy line. And it seems somewhat grotesque to me that such a song is sung by a guy who looks like elderly Reinhard...
by ArthurPooh
Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:54 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Occupied Land acknowledgements
Replies: 16
Views: 1298

Re: Occupied Land acknowledgements

When did acknowledging that your institution is on “Located on Occupied and Unceeded XYZ Ancestral Homelands” become a thing? Is it anything other than empty virtue signaling? I have yet to encounter this. What are examples of this? From Perth Mint's website: Acknowledgement of Country: We acknowle...
by ArthurPooh
Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 239
Views: 129550

Re: BTC in the PP

You have a "deep storage" multi-sig wallet that you almost never touch that you treat like a vault, the keys held by multiple professional trusted third parties that will only provide access to you. You have a self-custodied wallet that you treat as an account for the purpose of making an...
by ArthurPooh
Sat Mar 30, 2024 4:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 239
Views: 129550

Re: BTC in the PP

I have an counterargument to the whole Bitcoin Standard narrative that I have never seen stated online and yet it seems like it should be fairly obvious. Warning: this will be somewhat long (if still shorter than the Moldbug article posted above) and I will talk about gold. A lot. First, let's state...
by ArthurPooh
Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A history lesson for our crypto trolls
Replies: 24
Views: 5079

Re: A history lesson for our crypto trolls

What are the best ways for those fleeing Ukraine or China to move wealth In case of Ukraine, it's buying $100 bills (along with other hard currencies) for any price, hiding them well and hoping you still have some left after Slovakian/Polish/Hungarian/Romanian border guards are done with you. You w...
by ArthurPooh
Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:37 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Private equity
Replies: 2
Views: 933

Re: Private equity

How can a regular person even invest in private equity? I don't know about the UK, but if I'm correct in the US you need to be an accredited investor (high net worth and/or high income) to be allowed to invest in these funds.
by ArthurPooh
Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:35 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Moonshots
Replies: 20
Views: 8891

Re: Moonshots

dualstow wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 8:40 pm Anyone for Toast/TOST?
Not a moonshot, just a variable portfolio stock, but it doesn’t warrant its own thread.
I've expected a company with this name to be a chain of bakeries or pastry shops.
by ArthurPooh
Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 7015

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

Buffett can tour a factory and get insider info. He defines value as great companies that are underpriced. Guru quants eg Asness & Arnott define value as bad/underperforming based on a few metrics like price to book. We are competing with millions of investors poring over public data online, da...