Search found 2334 matches

by AdamA
Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:48 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Brief Book Review: What To Do When The Bubble Pops
Replies: 9
Views: 565

Re: Brief Book Review: What To Do When The Bubble Pops

At the very least it sounds entertaining. I think I will read it.
by AdamA
Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 73
Views: 5897

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

How's this for an interesting factoid: the most recent rate for 30 year Treasuries and the current rate for iBonds is exactly the same: 1.68% - except, of course, for the fact that the iBond's rate will be adjusted for inflation for up to 30 years and no income tax is due until redemption. Too bad ...
by AdamA
Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Message From Our Alt-Right Members to the “Moderates”
Replies: 161
Views: 7358

Re: Message From Our Alt-Right Members to the “Moderates”

...there is NOTHING about politics in it aside from a healthy dose of not trusting governments to do the right thing.... Therefore I'm 100% here with pmward that believing in the Permanent Portfolio and its philosophy and logic for how it works does not then tie you to having to take or subscribe t...
by AdamA
Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Favorite Movies - Your Short List
Replies: 134
Views: 8110

Re: Favorite Movies - Your Short List

Hal wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:31 am

Das Boot 1981 - Realistic as.
I watch this movie at least once a year. Truly great.
by AdamA
Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Another PP fund
Replies: 4
Views: 3379

Re: Another PP fund

Is the podcast any good?

I liked the link Hal posted.
by AdamA
Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Whoa: Nearly a Third of Democrats Believe the Election Was Stolen From Trump
Replies: 137
Views: 6917

Re: Whoa: Nearly a Third of Democrats Believe the Election Was Stolen From Trump

Wow, what's happened to this forum? It used to be a place filled with intelligent, well thought out discussions on a wide range of topics. Now it's an echo chamber where the crazies reign supreme. I've gotten the same impression, and honestly stopped reading here for the past few weeks. The folks e...
by AdamA
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines
Replies: 24
Views: 3275

Re: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines

Doug Casey was a friend of Harry's and he has a great YouTube Channel with Michael Smith that would be of interest to many subscribers here. Doug opines on the LTT component of the PP here on Youtube: Doug Casey's Take (ep. #41) Friday AMA: Ayahuasca, Most Exotic Country, Buying Property... The bit...
by AdamA
Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Switching from TLT to TIPS
Replies: 6
Views: 1852

Re: Switching from TLT to TIPS

pmward wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:25 pm
I'm not saying I believe bonds are the most attractive investment in the world right now, but they could continue to surprise all of us.
+1
by AdamA
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 44
Views: 5482

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:48 pm

And even if the Treasury Bond portion of the PP lost 50% of its value, it would only be a 12.5% loss for the portfolio.

What am I missing?
In your example, 12.5%.
Lol. Touche.
by AdamA
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 44
Views: 5482

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:00 pm
we are seeing TLT basically stall out even though stocks are selling off and the economic conditions look terrible
TLT is up 15% TYD.
S&P is up around 3% I think.

Where is the stall?
by AdamA
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 44
Views: 5482

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Unfortunately, as time goes on, the back-tested data we used to form our conclusions start belonging to an outdated world that could have had very different economic forces at play. What are the different forces at play? I don't really see what has changed for the world economic system since the in...
by AdamA
Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 44
Views: 5482

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

I am no more confident of the pp than I am in any other diversified portfolio of similar equity weighting What's the saying..."It's not the investment, it's the investor." At some point you have to pick a reasonable strategy and just stick to it. So much is bound to change over a 30-40 year investm...
by AdamA
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...
by AdamA
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

I know Im a little late to the party here. But from a systematic perspective, wouldn't it make more sense to look at indicators that actually signal a bond reversal instead of just selling because rates are low and buying because they are high? What defines the subjective terms "low" and "high"? I ...
by AdamA
Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

this is why i said above we need to stop with the mental masturbation by reading what was or used to be , or how things may have back tested and concentrate on how things are reacting going forward . driving and looking in the rear view mirror may not be a great idea . What do you guys think the wo...
by AdamA
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:19 pm
.

The emotional decision that keeps them in the PP is probably better than the emotional decisions they would make without it.
Exactly.
by AdamA
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

Well at least historically both bonds and stocks become correlated and go down as interest rates are rising...so 50% of your PP is not going to be doing well. Gold, who knows. It may help, it may not help. So that leaves cash. All of this is also somewhat influenced by how interest rates go up...so...
by AdamA
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:47 am
A trend up in bond rates would inflict a lot of damage users never expected to see with the pp
Why?
by AdamA
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago. Has anything really changed? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1096&p=11740&hilit=crystal+ball#p11740 Well, kinda. We'd kill for the rates folks here were bitching about in 2011: https://www.macrotrends.net/2521...
by AdamA
Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 14391

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago.

Has anything really changed?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1096&p=11740&hilit= ... all#p11740
by AdamA
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? Implications for the PP?
Replies: 16
Views: 2311

Re: The death of nominal bonds? Implications for the PP?

What I know is that messing with the PP with proposed improvements rather than just trucking along with the strategy more often than not ends up with the person getting egg on their face. There just seems to be some intrinsic law in the universe that makes staying the course more profitable than th...
by AdamA
Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? Implications for the PP?
Replies: 16
Views: 2311

Re: The death of nominal bonds? Implications for the PP?

Does anyone think that it might be okay to just keep by long term treasuries, even with negative rates?

Maybe if rates continued to drop, you'd make up what you'd lose in interest with what you'd make in capital gains.
by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 18947

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

So you're saying you would do it then? You could keep them and buy more in the 15-20 year range with the goal of having 50% of your portfolio in 10-15 year treasury bonds in the next 5-10 years. 50% 10 year treasuries, 25% stock and 25% gold is another way to basically hold the PP. I think people h...
by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 12253

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

It was almost exactly two months ago that tomfoolery was “sounding the alarm” in a thread called ‘The (PP) May Be About to Break’. The main culprit: long-term treasuries. But someone, somewhere has been sounding the alarm since the beginning. If it does eventually “break”, the person with the right...
by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 12253

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

To add to what everyone else is saying... oil is by far the biggest weight You're not going to see any "inflation" in the official data until oil starts to go up. Very good point. These types of predications have a way of tricking everyone. Even though it seems like a no-brainer that we'd have infl...