Search found 2312 matches

by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 12960

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

So you're saying you would do it then? You could keep them and buy more in the 15-20 year range with the goal of having 50% of your portfolio in 10-15 year treasury bonds in the next 5-10 years. 50% 10 year treasuries, 25% stock and 25% gold is another way to basically hold the PP. I think people h...
by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

It was almost exactly two months ago that tomfoolery was “sounding the alarm” in a thread called ‘The (PP) May Be About to Break’. The main culprit: long-term treasuries. But someone, somewhere has been sounding the alarm since the beginning. If it does eventually “break”, the person with the right...
by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

To add to what everyone else is saying... oil is by far the biggest weight You're not going to see any "inflation" in the official data until oil starts to go up. Very good point. These types of predications have a way of tricking everyone. Even though it seems like a no-brainer that we'd have infl...
by AdamA
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

But they [the Fed] really only have any control over the short end of the curve. Didn’t the Fed start purchasing longer-term Treasuries (among other types of securities) in March? If they can purchase Treasuries of any duration, that means they can influence all parts of the yield curve, doesn’t it...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

If the Fed's incentive to fight inflation no longer exists, why would they ever let Treasury rates rise significantly? There would be no benefit to the government. But they really only have any control over the short end of the curve. I agree that at some point there may be less demand, but I'm not...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

Hard to have inflation with such a high unemployment rate, I think. Well that is what many people believe. But I am pretty sure they are wrong. We already have had a big inflation in food prices. But prices going up due to issues of supply and demand is different than prices going up due to inflati...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

The price of food consumed at home, however, was up 0.5% from February. That was on top of a 0.5% increase the prior month. The report states: "The index for dairy and related products increased 3.7 percent over the last year. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 2.3 percent, with the ...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4868

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

pmward wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:11 am
Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them???
No.
by AdamA
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 2659

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

For those of who have never prior seen this: Efficient Frontier William J. Bernstein Wild about Harry http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm I read that post 10 years ago prior to investing in the PP. It's a great post because it looks at the PP through the lens of modern portfolio th...
by AdamA
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Vanguard and Fidelity Treasury MM funds closed to new investors
Replies: 16
Views: 1067

Re: Vanguard and Fidelity Treasury MM funds closed to new investors

What's the old saw about cash being king? Read through this article to see the scale of the inflows they've been dealing with at Vanguard alone. Pretty breathtaking. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-latest-close-money-fund-204744970.html I note that that last time Vanguard closed their Treas...
by AdamA
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 12960

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

It was only when I embarked on my forum archeology, I then discovered that Tex was Craig's equal. And, actually, upon joining this forum, it was Tex to whom I sent my first private message, thanking him for the book. At that time, I was unaware that he'd basically stopped participating. Vinny When ...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EE Bonds = 3.5% 20-Year Treasury
Replies: 13
Views: 908

Re: EE Bonds = 3.5% 20-Year Treasury

If you hold EE bonds for 20 years they are guaranteed to double.

So they have a guaranteed rate of 3.5% (if held that long).

Too bad you can only buy $10K/year.