Ha! It’s because I was arguing from a libertarian point of view in the second half of my post. That said, I’d be wary about Florida. One might enjoy DeSantis trolling of teh libs, but he’s doing it with heavy handed laws. I’d recommend a purple state that doesn’t have a long term single party rule a...

If I had to bet what would be the global power in 40 years—"USA VS everybody else" I would get the pessimism around such a binary outcome. But the reality is you get to be the citizen of ONE nation...maybe two if you're lucky. So I return to the TINA question. Maybe Nigeria or India will be the next...

Great! I'm all for a Tiktok ban...but I'm sick of Congress delegating powers to the executive branch.

My ideal is to ban certain types of surveillance that would cripple Tiktok's addictiveness (and FB, Twitter, Youtube, etc). Of course that's why it won't happen....

Thanks for the link. It might be just be confirmation but I agree with the Bogleheads article’s sentiment that a global-with-home-tilt equities portion coupled with an all domestic bond portion is an ideal setup. That said, if you look on Portfolio Visualizer you’ll see that into stocks are highly c...

Geopolitics always matter….to the point where it doesn’t really matter. If the system collapses (especially with the US as the worlds reserve currency) we’re all fucked no matter the portfolio. If you got a safety deposit box in another country, there is a chance you’ll be less fucked than the rest ...

sometimes...but they are often related too.

I just realized that there is a rarely mentioned behavioral benefit to the Risk Parity approach – even during accumulation. "being diversified means you’re always losing" = something is ALWAYS on sale! I grok the William Bernstein sentiment “get on your hands and knees and pray for a market crash”, ...

Thanks! I'm not ready to explore an active portfolio management strategy, but it's intriguing! I've bookmarked this thread for future study!

40% HBPP and 60% Antonacci GEM... CAGR 12%, MaxDD -18% (worse than HBPP but much more return... you get compensated for it). Sharpe ratio 1.46. Ulcer Index 2.12. This is a very simple model to run. You find a number of sites giving away the Antonacci signals for free. HBPP CAGR ulcer index 1.29. Yo...

From your other thread, I don't see how "Short-term treasuries, real estate with timber value, maybe a few old fashioned dividend-paying stocks with certificates" will save you in a national collapse. If you're really worried about the state of our nation then do as HB advises. Store your gold in an...

Hal wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:40 am

Exact, no, good-enough, I think so....

Bravo! This encapsulates the Risk Parity style mentality. Get approximately close enough, then KISS.

Beyond that you're optimizing for a future that may not happen.

joypog, do you have a good source for your claim of European debt levels? Every source that I find online seems to indicate that on average the Eurozone has lower debt to GDP ratios than the US. Not at all saying that the Euro is going to take over. My limited travels to Europe in recent years (Ita...

The US has declined in some ways, but to me it still looks like the best horse in the glue factory. It will survive and, perhaps after stumbling for a bit, it will find its footing and rise again. I might not be as optimistic about rising again, but frankly I see no other option. Where else would o...

It amazes me that Tucker is still being watched in spite of these revelations.

Vil wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:44 am

but still kind of flat-ish overall...

Isn't that kind of the point of the HBPP?

dualstow wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:36 am

joypog wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:07 pm

Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon,

the whole thing?

Hahaha! It's a short book...but not that short! It was a lot of skimming while slowing down at the juicy parts!

One big take away for me is that commodity trend following (CTA) is very interesting. One CTA I follow is up 30 percent in the past 12 months. Which I think is a general direction of a lot of the CTA’s. Basically it seems like they are zigging when a lot of stuff is zagging. Yeah CTA's are showing ...

I bought 30 years at 4 and then again at 3.87. I am using a new rule for myself. It’s called go halfsies. If I’m scared to buy or sell I do around half. That gets me moving. Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon, I think this is a great addendum to his Rule #17 "When in Doubt, Err on th...

That's my question, though, is whether it fits in with the HBPP mentality. He seems to be saying to pick stocks with high risk/reward for better rebalancing opportunities. Would HB say to put all your stock allocation into SCV rather than splitting half and half between SCV and LCG? Or is there som...

I hang out on the rational reminder forum so...not surprisingly I use a mix of AVUV (also recommended by Paul Merriman's group) and DFSV in our different accounts. I use more AVUV than DFSV because the ER is lower, but I doubt you could go wrong. If I was being adventurous I might check out VIOV for...

That's my question, though, is whether it fits in with the HBPP mentality. He seems to be saying to pick stocks with high risk/reward for better rebalancing opportunities. Would HB say to put all your stock allocation into SCV rather than splitting half and half between SCV and LCG? Or is there som...

I'm a big fan of the LCG + SCV split. Paul Merriman's quilt charts show it as being the most consistent performer among various strategies - never the best, but never the worst. Which fits perfectly in line the HBPP mentality. https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portf...

I believe timing the interest rates market is as much a fool's game as picking individual stocks. So I've been just following my rules and buying stuff up. I will admit that with another 15+ years on my career horizon, buying bonds is a lot easier right now just cause its "cheaper" relative to the 5...

Maudlin has been bearish for the past decade. I should know, it was his newsletter that froze me in place during one of the biggest bull runs in the stock market ever. I mean, they'll be right...eventually. It wasn't until I found the HBPP that I felt comfortable putting money back into the market t...

every american president, but they're all cool and they all sport a mullet

https://twitter.com/hamcarless/status/1 ... 24483?s=20