Search found 48 matches

by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 7:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 156

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

Let her decide or you'll never hear the end of it =) Trust me, I've learned the hard way. The first house was heavily influenced by my preferences. This next one I told her is 100% on her. I'll advise if asked, but if she needs to own the next decision. I don't want keep living like we'll be moving...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 6:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Cool story. Did you buy that portfolio yet =) Hahah good question! Last weekend we started moving money into position, but we're going in over 10 months. We got to our crazy cash position due to our hyper-conservativeness and see no compelling reason to suddenly change.... And yeah, it was fun tryi...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 5:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Cool story. Did you buy that portfolio yet =) Hahah good question! Last weekend we started moving money into position, but we're going in over 10 months. We got to our crazy cash position due to our hyper-conservativeness and see no compelling reason to suddenly change.... And yeah, it was fun tryi...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 5:29 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 156

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

boglerdude wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 4:41 pm
Cant time the housing market either. Buy when you decide you'll be there long term
That's the problem. With two architects, it's hard to decide on a "good" house...timing or not!
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Stupid question - as the only bonds you (plan to) keep is LTT and is just 10% - is that worth at all ? I mean (conceptually) for the time being - its just a burden (even though with minor effect on your overall portfolio), but when the sun start to shine over LTTs (god knows when) - will it be wort...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 8:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Start to smell pinwheel-ish here... ;D you just miss some REIT .. For me its too much of slice & dice. Only piece of international stocks I found that is not that much corelated to US stock market is EU small caps (and in EU we are good in having the small caps really small ;-)). For REITs I have r...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 8:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 156

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I like rules of thumb. This makes sense. Maybe I'll split my Tbill ladder to be half 52-week and half 2-year notes and just let them autoroll from there. Are you putting off the house purchase for at least two years? I ask because even 2-year notes (not held to maturity) will go negative if rates c...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 12:48 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

btw I followed up with the same question on Bogleheads and was given good advice to not try and account for the pension as part of the AA. Just redeuce my assumed needed monthly income...and then invest according to my preexisting risk preference. Which pushed me back to my AA. Well after much more ...
by joypog
Sun May 15, 2022 11:03 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 156

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I like rules of thumb. This makes sense. Maybe I'll split my Tbill ladder to be half 52-week and half 2-year notes and just let them autoroll from there.
by joypog
Sun May 15, 2022 6:31 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 156

Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I'm holding a lot of cash to potentially buy a house in the near future. Admittedly we've been planning on buying a new house for the past five years and counting. I'm wondering if it would make sense to put a third of that cash into Intermediate Treasuries....but then I looked at the returns and th...
by joypog
Sat May 14, 2022 7:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

hmm interesting. Playing with round numbers...let's say I have 10,000/yr from a pension ...assuming that income is part of a 4% SWR would that count for $250k as a bond portion? So if someone was shooting for a 60/40 split in a $1M portfolio one could go 850k stocks / 150k bonds? edit: Alternately I...
by joypog
Sat May 14, 2022 6:59 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Another idea - Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs:
30% US Stock and then 10% each Intl, SV, Reit, Gold, LTT, Cash and Emgerging Markets
by joypog
Sat May 14, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

unfortunately the link just takes me to Morningstar's front page? Could you repost it? As for the pension...I won't vest for a couple more years, so I wonder how my psychology will shift once I know that I've got it in the bag. Even though the percentage is small at first just knowing its coming wil...
by joypog
Fri May 13, 2022 11:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3495
Views: 1048688

Re: The GOLD scream room

It's of course not possible to attribute gold's rise in the 2000's with 100 percent certainty to the availability of ETFs for the first time. But there are reasons to believe that the ease of investing in gold electronically with no thought to transport, storage, etc. had something to do with the d...
by joypog
Fri May 13, 2022 10:58 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 224

The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

I've been on a slow trend towards becoming more and more agressive with my potential portfolio as I think about our final AA (going from our current 70% cash position to PP to GB to 50% stock). This afternoon I got curious about intermediate term bonds (which seem to have half the safety of STT's an...
by joypog
Fri May 13, 2022 11:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 6
Views: 231

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

working in the construction industry we certainly have both. Supply chains are all gummed up and China's zero-covid policy isn't helping....but there is still plenty of liquidity in the market that wants to get shit built (though I fear how the recent shocks in the stock market might affect how thin...
by joypog
Thu May 12, 2022 8:53 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2575

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Hey thanks for that link! An interesting read. I think it depends on market size as well as to what happens. The hedge funds are likely involved in mid to larger cityscapes. For small town America the papers have just been closing down. It's a super tough business to be in now and a lot of people w...
by joypog
Tue May 10, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 41
Views: 6901

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%" Ride isnt over yet tho Exactly … I would think users of the pp would want to know if they are getting the benefit the pp is supposedly known for . After all...
by joypog
Mon May 09, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 6 slices - US Total Stock, US Small Cap, Intl Total Stock, LTT, Cash, Gold
Replies: 1
Views: 147

6 slices - US Total Stock, US Small Cap, Intl Total Stock, LTT, Cash, Gold

As I've been researching the heck out of all these portfolios I've been settling into the Golden Butterfly (to be slowly averaged into over the course of this year). The one thing scratching at the back of my head is the lack of International exposure...which lead to this overlapping mess of equally...
by joypog
Mon May 09, 2022 4:17 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2575

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

I don't think I've seen a place like this that gets so unhinged over news. Internet tips: You do not have to click on click bait and you can chose not to consume news of any kind. Try going without any news for a month...you will come to realize 99% of it has no impact your personal daily life. I c...
by joypog
Mon May 09, 2022 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 49
Views: 1526

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Completely not surprised about BTC...gold hasn't blown it out of the water but it has held. BTC, not so much. Down worse than the market by a fair amount. Don't know jack about crypto, but I've heard BTC is more corrolated to high flying tech stocks than gold. Does that make any sense? In any case,...
by joypog
Sun May 08, 2022 9:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2575

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Russia is going to invade Ukraine on Tuesday at 3pm!!! ...clip... "I’d like to request US and British disinformation: Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my vacation," the Russian diplomat said on ...
by joypog
Thu May 05, 2022 10:19 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Replies: 7
Views: 483

Re: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)

Yes, it was today, 5/5/2022. :D
by joypog
Thu May 05, 2022 2:34 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Replies: 7
Views: 483

William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)

Just listening as I work so I haven't listened to the whole program. 14 minutes in, Bernstein mentions that safe assets should be held as T-bills (as opposed to bond funds) and that Buffet holds 20% in bills.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmGPgNWXRMKN?s=20
by joypog
Mon May 02, 2022 11:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?
Replies: 7
Views: 327

Re: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?

Makes sense. Thanks for your responses today. Cheers!