Search found 159 matches

by joypog
Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1173
Views: 346919

Re: YouTube Junkie

most likely not the right fit for this group, but Arcane on Netflix turned out to be a damn good show (9 episodes, 40 minutes each). IMHO this fight scene (late in the series) is the highlight of the show. For context, they knew each other as kids, but have gone seperate ways. https://www.youtube.co...
by joypog
Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:47 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II
Replies: 846
Views: 236983

Re: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:47 pm
We’re all just people with different operating systems, Xan. Some run Eunuchs.
Some cultures remove the stones, other cultures slice it all off.
by joypog
Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:25 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II
Replies: 846
Views: 236983

Re: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II

ohh...I want to be objectified into my genatalia. Much more wholesome than using traditional words.
by joypog
Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 199

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

Pfau is principal and director of McLean asset mgmt …,he has a big vested interest in selling annuity products Fair enough. But its an ad hominum that is so universal to be unactionable. Almost all of the writers in this space are tied to private firms who sell some sort of financial product. I sus...
by joypog
Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 199

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

Always keep in mind pfau is an annuity salesman first and a researcher second . I may be interpreting your claim in bold too literally, but I'm pretty sure Pfau does not sell annuities. He does include annuities in his research and frequently in his recommendations, to mitigate sequence-of-return a...
by joypog
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bad Explanations for Inflation
Replies: 1
Views: 44

Re: Bad Explanations for Inflation

https://www.aier.org/article/putting-money-back-in-monetary-policy-a-response-to-dan-mclaughlin/ Another interseting article discussing the relationship between monetary policy and government taxation and spending. TLDR: not much. I respect a think tank that's willing to tackle both sides, will have...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 199

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

These were in the publisher sample on overdrive so I think this explanation from chapter one is ok to share. (to confirm, the screen shot is the entire section on risk wrap, the next page starts with the section on Time Segmentation stratiges). Screenshot 2022-06-22 215325.png Screenshot 2022-06-22 ...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 170
Views: 7317

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Along those lines what grades would you give to Vanguard's two index offerings in this area? Value Fund and Small Cap Value Fund. I've been in both since January 2003. I haven't studied the matter too seriously, but I will say that the folks at Rational Reminder forum (heavy on factor investing) pr...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 170
Views: 7317

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

IMHO, the HBPP isn't really as "permanent" as the name suggest... but at the same time people here would benefit from having a "system" that gives them the illusion of control in their life. I think the illusion of control is a big appeal to these risk parity portfolios. On my end I've never been c...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 170
Views: 7317

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

The basic premise is flawed and the real value (blockchain technology) is difficult to invest in directly. It is like trying to invest in the discovery of a new periodic table element... you know it will be beneficial somewhere, but where and how is unclear. That's my difficulty with block chain. I...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 170
Views: 7317

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Maybe. I always thought it was interesting that since a lot of crypto is involved in illegal transactions, the government seizes billions and billions worth of it. More levers at their disposal. One benefit of watching foreign films as a teenager was realizing that power usually wins out. Americans...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 199

Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

I haven't read the full book since my library doesn't own a copy, but the sample is pretty extensive, including the complete first chapter, available on overddrive . His basic thesis is that everyone has their own retirement style that can be broken down among four quadrants with two major axis - Sa...
by joypog
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:03 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Joypog's regularly changing AA (originally "The Desert Looking Glass Portfolio")
Replies: 31
Views: 1194

Re: Joypog's regularly changing AA (originally "The Desert Looking Glass Portfolio")

This weekend I did some charts looking at the performance of a 70% stock portfolio versus my current 50% stock goal using the info on portfolio charts. after 15 years, the 70% portfolio is expected to outperform the 50% portfolio even with the worse case scenarmos...but my wife looked at the 1 and 2...
by joypog
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 170
Views: 7317

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Just an awful week Pp down 12.88% ytd , cagr the last 10 years 4.30% Fidelity monitor income model down 11.31 , 4.71% the last 10 years Wellesly 11.67% 40% equities . 5.93% the last 10 years Ray dalio all weather is doing the worst , down 16.12.. 5.31% the last 10 years . Vti for comparison 12.38% ...
by joypog
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:15 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 213
Views: 4950

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession. Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO. Was this toungue in cheek? I'm ...
by joypog
Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 170
Views: 7317

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

The 10 year CAGR is a good addition, gives more context. I appreciate the weekly updates.
by joypog
Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 65
Views: 10271

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Kbg wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 4:33 pm
Knocking on the door of 20K
On the way down or back up?

It's all 'bout narrative baby!
by joypog
Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 225

Re: Inflation

Jack Jones wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 4:58 am
The level of debt seems like a significant difference:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/

Does this limit how high it can raise interest rates to combat inflation?
Or would it incentivize the fed to inflate the debt away?

BTW that longtermtrends site seems freaking amazing.
by joypog
Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:26 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?
Replies: 27
Views: 5262

Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

The Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell has said inflation is 1.4% and maybe will reach 1.7% at the worst in coming years. So if we have low inflation and our government economic experts are telling us this, then why hold gold? Why not TIPS? In Jerome Powell We Trust Once he gets inflation under control ...
by joypog
Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Rickards on Victoria, we're famous!
Replies: 2
Views: 111

Re: Rickards on Victoria, we're famous!

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:35 pm
Most likely your phone and credit cards. That’s all they need.
Very likely why the some nations have funnelled so much commerce via their social media sites.
by joypog
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:47 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 213
Views: 4950

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Admittedly, modem man, forced by technique to become in reality and without residue the imaginary producer-consumer of the classical economists, shows disconcertingly little regard for his lost freedom; but, according to Ellul, there are ominous signs that human spontaneity, which in the rational...
by joypog
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:38 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 484913

Re: Stock scream room

OK thanks! I'm still got another 10-20 years of accumulation phase so I always throw in some contributions into the calcs cause it's closer to my circumstances. But yeah I could see that getting really messy. Sorry for the confusion. Ultimately I think the main point is that the US 60/40 was just de...
by joypog
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:12 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 484913

Re: Stock scream room

glennds wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:49 pm
Joypog, something doesn't look right. There's no way the PP would be returning a CAGR of 12.59% for that time period. It should be closer to 6% or a little less.
Hmm I reran the test and here are the settings and results.

I'm a n00b with PV, so I may well be wrong. Is there a setting that's off?
by joypog
Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:09 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 484913

Re: Stock scream room

I took a look on Portfolio Visualizer comparing the PP, GB, and a 60/40 (with World-TSM and ITT as bond). Starting 2010 (after the last crash) with $100k, and monthly 1k contributions. All of them were creamed by the Classic Jack Bogle Vanguard 60/40 portfolio (the green benchmark line). America kic...
by joypog
Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:18 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Bank run currently happening in China?
Replies: 12
Views: 305

Re: Bank run currently happening in China?

Anyway, I think having written this all out, I am not really disagreeing with you on much of anything except the idea that Omicron can actually be contained. Oh I agree completely with you on this as well. It's just a matter of time. I was merely noting that they have been successful-ish so far in ...