Search found 58 matches

by joypog
Thu May 19, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 17
Views: 453

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

Kbg wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 4:38 pm
Simple summary...the days of everything cheap due to Chinese labor/manufacturing/and just in time supply chains are over
So that sounds like an inflation prediction?
by joypog
Thu May 19, 2022 2:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 17
Views: 453

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

the moontower piece was long...and barely comprhenisble to a noob like me. If anything, it basically says things can go in a lot of ways, just as HB claimed by designing the PP. But his "thoughts for new grads" is a great post. Thanks for the reference. https://moontowermeta.com/thoughts-for-new-gra...
by joypog
Thu May 19, 2022 11:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 17
Views: 453

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

glennds wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 10:38 am
It's a high wire act for the Fed.
When I was younger I'd say "love to have their problems".

Now I'm like "don't need those headaches".
by joypog
Thu May 19, 2022 10:22 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 12
Views: 1312

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

Slightly related to this question. How do you compare yields for bonds of different durations? The bloomberg site seems pretty clear, but it doesn't include all the available durations (such as 3 or 7 year). So just t reasury direct for most recent auction results? Or the treasury.gov daily par yiel...
by joypog
Thu May 19, 2022 6:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Random observation
Replies: 11
Views: 365

Re: Random observation

And as completely opposite to a random observation - I am completely certain that new PP investors will get better prices. One could ask - better compared to what? Well, compared to me who did rebalancing/contribution at the beginning of this year ;D So, joypog , you may have good opportunities ahe...
by joypog
Wed May 18, 2022 10:40 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Appetite for Destruction
Replies: 3
Views: 95

Re: Appetite for Destruction

I did hear some Guns N' Roses being played. I believe that they came out in 1987, which means you'd have to be at least 35 years old just to have been born when it came out, let alone how old you'd have to be just to be aware of it -- probably have to now be in your upper 40s. Yeah, pretty close. A...
by joypog
Wed May 18, 2022 2:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Appetite for Destruction
Replies: 3
Views: 95

Appetite for Destruction

For whatever odd reason I suddenly felt the need to listen to Guns and Roses.

What the hell does that say about my current state of mind...and the world?

(Up til today, I've been on a John Coltrane kick for 2022, except for a short spurt of War Pigs in late Feb).
by joypog
Wed May 18, 2022 2:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Random observation
Replies: 11
Views: 365

Re: Random observation

dualstow wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 1:58 pm
Vil wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 10:59 am
Well, it might be that piling cash will be the new smart way of investing ...
Say it isn’t so, Vil 😭
If cash is the best investment with 8% inflation...that's a gloomy forecast.
by joypog
Wed May 18, 2022 10:18 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 36
Views: 2763

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Nothing excuses what he did , but I think one can feel pity for him in watching/reading about his decent. There were a couple of lines that were flat out painful to read. One of the worst things about modern American discourse is the inability of both sides to feel pity while acknowledging an indiv...
by joypog
Wed May 18, 2022 8:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?
Replies: 2
Views: 105

Re: Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?

Interesting! Quite convincing to see numbers instead of the theorizing of HBPP. It also falls in line with Bernstein's inclination to avoid ITT's and LTT's and keep the risk in equities. Makes me wonder if I should change my future LTT purchases to be 5-year notes. The 5 year notes seem follow the 8...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 7:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 182

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

Let her decide or you'll never hear the end of it =) Trust me, I've learned the hard way. The first house was heavily influenced by my preferences. This next one I told her is 100% on her. I'll advise if asked, but if she needs to own the next decision. I don't want keep living like we'll be moving...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 6:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Cool story. Did you buy that portfolio yet =) Hahah good question! Last weekend we started moving money into position, but we're going in over 10 months. We got to our crazy cash position due to our hyper-conservativeness and see no compelling reason to suddenly change.... And yeah, it was fun tryi...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 5:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Cool story. Did you buy that portfolio yet =) Hahah good question! Last weekend we started moving money into position, but we're going in over 10 months. We got to our crazy cash position due to our hyper-conservativeness and see no compelling reason to suddenly change.... And yeah, it was fun tryi...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 5:29 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 182

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

boglerdude wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 4:41 pm
Cant time the housing market either. Buy when you decide you'll be there long term
That's the problem. With two architects, it's hard to decide on a "good" house...timing or not!
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Stupid question - as the only bonds you (plan to) keep is LTT and is just 10% - is that worth at all ? I mean (conceptually) for the time being - its just a burden (even though with minor effect on your overall portfolio), but when the sun start to shine over LTTs (god knows when) - will it be wort...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 8:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Start to smell pinwheel-ish here... ;D you just miss some REIT .. For me its too much of slice & dice. Only piece of international stocks I found that is not that much corelated to US stock market is EU small caps (and in EU we are good in having the small caps really small ;-)). For REITs I have r...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 8:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 182

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I like rules of thumb. This makes sense. Maybe I'll split my Tbill ladder to be half 52-week and half 2-year notes and just let them autoroll from there. Are you putting off the house purchase for at least two years? I ask because even 2-year notes (not held to maturity) will go negative if rates c...
by joypog
Mon May 16, 2022 12:48 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

btw I followed up with the same question on Bogleheads and was given good advice to not try and account for the pension as part of the AA. Just redeuce my assumed needed monthly income...and then invest according to my preexisting risk preference. Which pushed me back to my AA. Well after much more ...
by joypog
Sun May 15, 2022 11:03 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 182

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I like rules of thumb. This makes sense. Maybe I'll split my Tbill ladder to be half 52-week and half 2-year notes and just let them autoroll from there.
by joypog
Sun May 15, 2022 6:31 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 182

Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I'm holding a lot of cash to potentially buy a house in the near future. Admittedly we've been planning on buying a new house for the past five years and counting. I'm wondering if it would make sense to put a third of that cash into Intermediate Treasuries....but then I looked at the returns and th...
by joypog
Sat May 14, 2022 7:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

hmm interesting. Playing with round numbers...let's say I have 10,000/yr from a pension ...assuming that income is part of a 4% SWR would that count for $250k as a bond portion? So if someone was shooting for a 60/40 split in a $1M portfolio one could go 850k stocks / 150k bonds? edit: Alternately I...
by joypog
Sat May 14, 2022 6:59 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Another idea - Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs:
30% US Stock and then 10% each Intl, SV, Reit, Gold, LTT, Cash and Emgerging Markets
by joypog
Sat May 14, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

unfortunately the link just takes me to Morningstar's front page? Could you repost it? As for the pension...I won't vest for a couple more years, so I wonder how my psychology will shift once I know that I've got it in the bag. Even though the percentage is small at first just knowing its coming wil...
by joypog
Fri May 13, 2022 11:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3503
Views: 1051358

Re: The GOLD scream room

It's of course not possible to attribute gold's rise in the 2000's with 100 percent certainty to the availability of ETFs for the first time. But there are reasons to believe that the ease of investing in gold electronically with no thought to transport, storage, etc. had something to do with the d...
by joypog
Fri May 13, 2022 10:58 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 256

The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

I've been on a slow trend towards becoming more and more agressive with my potential portfolio as I think about our final AA (going from our current 70% cash position to PP to GB to 50% stock). This afternoon I got curious about intermediate term bonds (which seem to have half the safety of STT's an...