I do hate the idea of the US govt taking a 10% stake in Intel Corp. Does anyone like it? Don't like it. But there is an argument that "the US govt taking a 10% stake in Intel Corp" is better than just giving the company free money like the CHIPS Act does. Two wrongs don't make a right, bu...

Always a good time to buy. That’s part of the beauty of it. Is it always a good time to buy? What about in 2020? The last day of July 2020 would have been a particularly rotten time to buy into TLT, what with the 30 year yield hovering around 1%: 2020-AugustYieldCurveByDate.PNG So if one bought equ...

👉 Have these economic environments really happened 25% of the time each? 📊 Not exactly. Historical data for the U.S. (since 1900) and Europe (mainly post-1950) tells a different story: ⸻ 🔍 Historical Occurrence of Each Scenario 🇺🇸 United States (NBER, CPI, FRED data): • 🔹 Expansion (GDP growth, low...

Gold futures normalized late afternoon: GoldFutures20250808.PNG after this report https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/gold-futures-trade-off-highs-as-white-house-to-issue-clarification-on-bullion-tariffs.html Gold futures trade off highs as White House to issue clarification on bullion tariffs Gold pric...

A simple but serious question... do you think that Harry Browne would have approved of Bitcoin? Would he see it as a complement to a portfolio alongside gold? Or perhaps a more extreme view that it was gold's replacement? Or maybe he'd reject it outright like Peter Schiff... Serious answer... I thi...

Here’s something similar that I see posted from time to time. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131430755/a-chemist-explains-why-gold-beat-out-lithium-osmium-einsteinium That's one of my favorite articles. He provides a good rationale for why historically man settled on gold as money. G...

It's all the same companies in HDV or SPY... Not really. Per etfrc.com fund overlap tool, HDV has just 75 holdings of which 59 are also found in SPY. With HDV, we can see the heavy sector drift towards Energy and Consumer Staples and away from Tech as compared to SPY: HDV-SPY-Overlap.PNG And yes, I...

Whatever happened to Republicans and free trade? Isn't free trade a Libertarian thing? I think tariffs are more of a Trump thing than a traditional Republican thing. And I think a lot of traditional Republicans (and their wealthy donors) are pretty pissed off about it. As I've said before, the whol...

Dear PPeers 🤠 Following up on my previous message about Return Stacking in the context of HB-PP (Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio), I wanted to share an approach that I’ve seen gaining traction. Some investors are adding a 5th sleeve to the traditional 4-asset PP by incorporating Trend Following ...

"Tax on Corporate Profit Margins" finally someone says it. Funny cuz reddit loves corporate tax but they're in shambles over tariffs. Trump's not going to betray his megacorp donors....if markets drop more than 20% we'll get the printer. Well we better cuz Ive been bagholding EDV since Ob...

Both are US long bond ETFs. TLT is priced about 3x per share more than SCHQ. So, for a given Dollar amount, you obviously have to buy about 3x more shares of SCHQ. They both have 30-day median bid-ask spreads in the same range... 3 basis points for SCHQ, 4 basis points for TLT. Both trade for free ...

This is a great message from a financial advisor. I think you will enjoy the perspective: “CALMNESS: Much as many companies ascribe to "core values", Stonecrop Wealth Advisors claims five virtues that we try to live by. One of them is "calmness." Over the years, we have heard on...

Hi 👋🏻 Can you please compare cash vs short term bonds in Europe ? Regards I don't know much about Europe, but you might explore the excellent PortfolioCharts.com website. You can change the home country to any of 8 different European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Sw...

Historically when we've had similar times as this ... there have been people coming here for an alternative? Is it really that bad (yet)? I mean stocks are down sure, but I think S&P 500 is only down ~13% YTD. Excepting some federal employees (and not to make light of their situation), employme...

After 10 years, these short-term bonds have produced either very low returns or even negative real returns when adjusted for inflation. Not exactly the capital protection I was hoping for. Yes, I did find it challenging to hold cash during the many years of interest rate repression. But while real ...

OMAHA, Neb., April 04, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--(BRK.A; BRK.B) – There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false. About Berkshire Berkshire Hathaway and its subsidiarie...

perfect_simulation wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:11 am
I have a permanent portfolio

My thoughts exactly!

Got to admit this is interesting Interesting is not the word for it. As far as I know this is unprecedented in our history! As part of the Trump's constants spews about everyone he was critical of people not being fired. Do you think he fires anyone over this? Interesting . P.S. I see it made BBC n...

His ideas are not all bad but his has such terrible characteristics as a person as witnessed by his behavior. His entire first term I had to hold my nose and think "I hate the way this guy conducts himself, but at least some of the policies are okay". I've tried to do the same in his seco...

Department heads and managers, supervisors should do a forced ranking of their people and yank the bottom 10% or whatever... much like all of us in corporation have done since forever-ago. Indeed most of us have endured this in our careers. This is the infamous Jack Welch 20/70/10 practice as descr...

Following up on your theme: https://larrykotlikoff.substack.com/p/boycott-america?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=3ifd&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Boycott America The Likely Reaction to Trump's Selling Out Ukraine and Starting a Trade War Larry Kotlikoff Mar 02, 2025 ... I’m als...

We should have ditched pennies long ago. On the other hand, as inflation continues, we should bring back the $500 note... but they won't. They just want to abolish cash, right? And dollar (de-dolarization), and now de-NATOization, CIA, FBI, overseas aid ... maybe next the Presidency? Trumpland with...

Currently, the US is pursuing an austerity budget. Oh, how I wish that were true. The fact is the US has been spending lots of money in the public sector in recent years even though the private sector has been doing great. Ideally the government should reduce spending when the private sector is chu...

I've bought some shares. That was fast, inception date was just March 5th! You are good with the 0.85% expense ratio? One of the things that has always stood out to me regarding the gold ETFs is they all seem to be organized as trusts and not registered under the "1940 Act". Nevertheless,...

Hoisington is an investment house consisting of long-bond bulls. They think (usually) that inflation is moderating, and 30-year yields will fall in 2025, due to a weakening economy. https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2024Q4NP.pdf Yeah, I've looked into the Wasatch Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund (WHOSX) b...