Maybe 2026 will be a year where all risk assets crash simultaneously? I'm going to go out on a limb and say cash. O0 You might say this is the "we're in an everything bubble" mode of thinking. It does kind of feel that way. In the US for the 48 year period 1978 through 2025, cash has been...

frugal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:15 pm All winners

Actually that is fairly common! In the US for the 48 year period 1978 through 2025, all 4 assets have had positive nominal returns in 19 years (40% of the time) including last year: 1982,85-86,93,95; 2003-07,10-12,16-17,19-20,23,25

Why? ... What am I missing? This is what comes to my mind regarding Greenland takeover talk, Venezuela military action, ICE operations, Fed Chair criminal investigation, etc. It all distracts from the Epstein files. Best comment I read all week: "If the Justice Dept. is as incompetent at inves...

Do you guys remember that one particular interview that Craig did about the PP where he mentioned his thoughts on Bitcoin? If I recall, that particular interview was on the shorter side. Perhaps 20 to 30 minutes long. He mentioned that he didn't like the idea of Bitcoin as a long-term store of valu...

Is this something that you'd recommend, or do you think we get enough global exposure through U.S. companies that have a global economic presence? I think that US companies provide enough global exposure. I prefer to stick with only US equities primarily due to the currency risk. Stocks are in the ...

Just for fun.
I predict stocks will be the 2026 loser. And to narrow down the timing, I'll say the downturn begins last week of July. Keeping the 25% allocation though.

Just for fun.
I predict gold will be the 2026 winner. Despite the 63% gain last year, and the double digit gains for 2 years prior to that, it just feels like we are in store for more chaos, so have to bet on the chaos asset. Sticking to the 25% allocation though.

According to the WSJ: "Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup share a price target of $3,000" an ounce in 2025. The reasons: lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, little industrial demand, and momentum. More details at https://www.wsj.com/finance/...

What do you mean by portfolio? In particular, are you including the primary residence? (I'm assuming, if so, that the amount of equity in the house is what would be counted.) I understand the common practice is to consider primary residence as part of total net worth but not as part of investment p...

P.S. Check out the “more than 500 pounds of precious metal” thread at b’heads. Yes, I saw that thread the other day. Apparently industrial demand for silver is high and junk silver is selling at a discount due to refiner backlog? I guess the lesson is if you're going to buy silver, don't buy the &q...

In a year that has been so good for the Permanent Portfolio, I would have expected a bunch of renewed interest and traffic on this forum. Why so quiet? Then again, it's been a good time for equities in general, so maybe the resurrected traffic comes after a correction/crash. I think you nailed it -...

I do hate the idea of the US govt taking a 10% stake in Intel Corp. Does anyone like it? Don't like it. But there is an argument that "the US govt taking a 10% stake in Intel Corp" is better than just giving the company free money like the CHIPS Act does. Two wrongs don't make a right, bu...

Always a good time to buy. That’s part of the beauty of it. Is it always a good time to buy? What about in 2020? The last day of July 2020 would have been a particularly rotten time to buy into TLT, what with the 30 year yield hovering around 1%: 2020-AugustYieldCurveByDate.PNG So if one bought equ...

👉 Have these economic environments really happened 25% of the time each? 📊 Not exactly. Historical data for the U.S. (since 1900) and Europe (mainly post-1950) tells a different story: ⸻ 🔍 Historical Occurrence of Each Scenario 🇺🇸 United States (NBER, CPI, FRED data): • 🔹 Expansion (GDP growth, low...

Gold futures normalized late afternoon: GoldFutures20250808.PNG after this report https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/gold-futures-trade-off-highs-as-white-house-to-issue-clarification-on-bullion-tariffs.html Gold futures trade off highs as White House to issue clarification on bullion tariffs Gold pric...

A simple but serious question... do you think that Harry Browne would have approved of Bitcoin? Would he see it as a complement to a portfolio alongside gold? Or perhaps a more extreme view that it was gold's replacement? Or maybe he'd reject it outright like Peter Schiff... Serious answer... I thi...

Here’s something similar that I see posted from time to time. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131430755/a-chemist-explains-why-gold-beat-out-lithium-osmium-einsteinium That's one of my favorite articles. He provides a good rationale for why historically man settled on gold as money. G...

It's all the same companies in HDV or SPY... Not really. Per etfrc.com fund overlap tool, HDV has just 75 holdings of which 59 are also found in SPY. With HDV, we can see the heavy sector drift towards Energy and Consumer Staples and away from Tech as compared to SPY: HDV-SPY-Overlap.PNG And yes, I...

Whatever happened to Republicans and free trade? Isn't free trade a Libertarian thing? I think tariffs are more of a Trump thing than a traditional Republican thing. And I think a lot of traditional Republicans (and their wealthy donors) are pretty pissed off about it. As I've said before, the whol...

Dear PPeers 🤠 Following up on my previous message about Return Stacking in the context of HB-PP (Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio), I wanted to share an approach that I’ve seen gaining traction. Some investors are adding a 5th sleeve to the traditional 4-asset PP by incorporating Trend Following ...

"Tax on Corporate Profit Margins" finally someone says it. Funny cuz reddit loves corporate tax but they're in shambles over tariffs. Trump's not going to betray his megacorp donors....if markets drop more than 20% we'll get the printer. Well we better cuz Ive been bagholding EDV since Ob...

Both are US long bond ETFs. TLT is priced about 3x per share more than SCHQ. So, for a given Dollar amount, you obviously have to buy about 3x more shares of SCHQ. They both have 30-day median bid-ask spreads in the same range... 3 basis points for SCHQ, 4 basis points for TLT. Both trade for free ...

This is a great message from a financial advisor. I think you will enjoy the perspective: “CALMNESS: Much as many companies ascribe to "core values", Stonecrop Wealth Advisors claims five virtues that we try to live by. One of them is "calmness." Over the years, we have heard on...

Hi 👋🏻 Can you please compare cash vs short term bonds in Europe ? Regards I don't know much about Europe, but you might explore the excellent PortfolioCharts.com website. You can change the home country to any of 8 different European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Sw...

Historically when we've had similar times as this ... there have been people coming here for an alternative? Is it really that bad (yet)? I mean stocks are down sure, but I think S&P 500 is only down ~13% YTD. Excepting some federal employees (and not to make light of their situation), employme...