Search found 190 matches

by seajay
Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3150

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

It's down -19.3% YTD. Its turning out to be the worst year since 1937. There's really no portfolio to hide in this year. https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1573683627375951878/photo/1 Well, damn, no wonder it feels so lousy. I hadn't realized it was historically that bad. And already within ...
by seajay
Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:39 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41401

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

'Interesting' Russian weapon, create a half mile high radioactive tsunami wave that sweeps across the land to leave a radioactive desert

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irela ... russian-tv
by seajay
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:14 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 52
Views: 1169

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Coincidentally, I set up a four-rung, one-year T-Bone ladder at the beginning of July ... Mmm, T-Bone ladder. 🥩 For stability/consistency a four-rung 7 day ladder of T-Bone's, rolling 28 day maturity. Mmm! In contrast steaks in general are far more volatile, sometimes good, sometimes bad. Feed off ...
by seajay
Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2112

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

When on a gold standard partial/total defaults are blatantly obvious. Broadly there's 0% inflation, with periodic clusters of high volatility. With Fiat the state can target progressive/less perceptible defaults, such as 2%/year inflation. Gold will do well when fears of more significant Fiat weakne...
by seajay
Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41401

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826ed4105b5f32827f577 The claim of a withdrawal to concentrate on Donetsk is similar to the justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv re...
by seajay
Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3150

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...
by seajay
Sat Sep 10, 2022 5:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3150

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Looks like marginally worse than YTD October 2008 PV 3 Month Year To Date 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year Full 3 year 5 year -11.30% -11.11% -10.04% 5.19% 5.91% 5.48% 8.55% 7.50% 6.53% Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending October 2008 PV 3 Month Year To Date 1 year 3...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:08 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41401

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Due to our Cold War perspective, I think it’s difficult for us to think of Russia as an imperial power. Obviously it was in the Czarist days but it was in the Communist days as well…it will be interesting to see if we are watching a “re” continuation of the break up that started in the 90s? Must ad...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171687

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Thank you for the post! It was great. If one breaks down the PPs performance profile it’s definitely cyclical/exhibits return to mean behavior. I do think we will see some outperformance whenever this down cycle ends. Thanks. Europe will have a hard winter (energy prices are a lot higher than in th...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41401

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Russia is increasingly being seen as a pariah state, not to be trusted and whilst Europe will endure a cold winter this year, by next year much of resources will have been redirected to be sourced from 'anywhere other than Russia'. The EU will struggle through this winter, but then be much more prep...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3150

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Digging out some data involved limited TLT history availability so I opted to use a monthly continual rolling 10 year ladder (not marked to market) instead of a STT/LTT barbell for pre 2003 data On that measure the recent dip isn't as deep as the deepest dip since 1972, but is getting close. https:/...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3150

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Nominal drawdowns are misleading. Adjusting for inflation and relative to the end of 2020 the PP as of end of August 2022 was down deeper than -20% real (after inflation). And of course deeper if you're also drawing a income. British PP, yearly granularity of drawdowns https://i.postimg.cc/63xSHh35/...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:03 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171687

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Leveraging is inclined to scale the volatility, not the rewards. Compounded rewards are a factor of yearly average and standard deviation. Scale up both the average AND the standard deviation and that tends to just still yield the same/similar annualized (CAGR) https://www.financialwebring.org/gummy...
by seajay
Wed Aug 31, 2022 3:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Banned
Replies: 31
Views: 1217

Re: Banned

Noise about noise. The March 2008 drawdown (end October 2008) was deeper in nominal terms -12% Start End Length Recovery By Recovery Time Underwater Period Drawdown Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 months Aug 2009 10 months 1 year 6 months -12.01% PV Feels like the present drawdown might excel that in both depth...
by seajay
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 236
Views: 14470

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Exactly. I stick with 100% stocks because the kinds of historical calamities that wiped out stocks typically wiped out bonds and cash as well. It's hard to tell what gold would have done at the time, had it been a freely tradeable commodity without a fixed price, but I suspect it would have gone up...
by seajay
Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Some support for investing in Gold
Replies: 8
Views: 2398

Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Some support for investing in Gold! Is It Time to Invest in Gold? Stock market volatility has given investors gold fever. If you chase the rally, don’t overdo it. July/August 1999 was the more attractive time to buy gold. Dow/Gold ratio was high (stocks expensive/gold cheap), in the UK you could bu...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2160

Re: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds

Cross link that may be of interest viewtopic.php?p=242237#p242237
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 56
Views: 4321

Re: US / International weight

likely differences in actual outcomes might be considered as just noise. That is my big takeaway with this months long exercise of looking at investing and picking an AA. After a point, fine tuning is just blowing kisses into the wind. Investor swapping around their asset allocation tends to on ave...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 236
Views: 14470

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. Stock heavy investors are more inclined to looking to have that and also hope to see substantial wealth expansion. They'll cite that in the worst...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 56
Views: 4321

Re: US / International weight

50/50 is a general good choice/balance. A factor with stocks is that they include bond exposure, stocks on average borrow (issue corporate bonds/whatever) half their book-value, whilst share prices are broadly priced to 2x book value. So each $1 of stock purchase also buys into 25c of short bond exp...
by seajay
Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 236
Views: 14470

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. PP investors are more inclined to look at investing as putting aside surplus capital today and anticipate that having maintained its purchase pow...
by seajay
Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 236
Views: 14470

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Do you have a mechanism for telling which asset is the "rat poison" ahead of time? For British investors, a third each UK home, US$ bills (hard currency), gold, for a century+ history sustained a 2.6% SWR, excluding imputed rent benefit. Historic imputed rent averaged 4.2% so 1.4% proportioned to a...
by seajay
Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 236
Views: 14470

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

What if the PP held 50% in a 20 year Treasury Ladder instead of a Short/Long dated treasury barbell? Each year around 2.5% of the portfolio value matures into cash, and 2.5% of the ongoing portfolio value is used to buy another 20 year Treasury. Average maturity 10 years. In cash terms after the por...
by seajay
Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 236
Views: 14470

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun. Take a PP, chuck out the cash element as that's just a portfolio de-leverage, rebalance once per decade, (maybe) eliminating what is the ...
by seajay
Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 35
Views: 3074

Re: Gold is not an investment

Gold is a competitor to the dollar and also bonds , not equites A new retiree initially loading 50/50 stock/gold, non-rebalanced, spending gold first - as though cash/T-Bills, historically tended to see that gold last relatively few years, 7 or so (4% SWR), as per 1980 start date, or many years, 22...