Search found 310 matches

by seajay
Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214938

Re: The GOLD scream room

Yeah looks like it. My gold is up 1.23%. Bitcoin is up 19.76% and bonds up 1.48%. Stocks have tanked though lol. Especially my value fund, probably cause value seems to concentrate on the banking sector. So on that measure, and from 2018 when BitCoin became more mainstream (ignoring the huge gain i...
by seajay
Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:03 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Socialism - Should we be worried
Replies: 62
Views: 5991

Re: Socialism - Should we be worried

One of the more concerning aspects of central bank digital currencies--which many predict are all but inevitable--is their capacity to be programmed to expire after a certain period of time. That would be the end of generational wealth for all but the Elite, who undoubtedly have figured out some wa...
by seajay
Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Socialism - Should we be worried
Replies: 62
Views: 5991

Re: Socialism - Should we be worried

... but aren't many youth (<30 years) more inclined to socialism, that transition to being capitalist (>30 years old) ... once they've accumulated some of their own wealth.
by seajay
Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:54 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 188
Views: 43520

Re: BTC in the PP

I could understand however if it became a simple common bank policy of 'flag all transactions' - so that they remained within the law, had reported all transactions that might subsequently have been identified as having been fraud/laundering. Which a state with the capacity to handle such 'big data'...
by seajay
Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:07 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 188
Views: 43520

Re: BTC in the PP

Here in the UK we're starting to see 'investigations' down to even relatively small amounts. Banks are obligated to flag 'suspicious' activities where that isn't clearly defined, but where if banks are identified as having partaken of moving 'illegal' money they could land in hot water, so as ever w...
by seajay
Sat Mar 04, 2023 3:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2559

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

Whilst all-stock is more rewarding, on average, outcomes are also more variable/volatile. For example 4% 30 year SWR outcomes for a British investor holding US stock compared to 50/50 US stock/gold had deeper left tails for all-stock. For individual cases within the broad average it was safer to hol...
by seajay
Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 32839

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Just pointing out that an 18% drop in a year is not unprecedented for the PP. I don't believe the yearly data show it as it's only happened intra-year so far. Fingers crossed that happens this time too. Yes & besides,WTH else CAN one do that is SAFER with their money. We all pretty much know what c...
by seajay
Sat Mar 04, 2023 1:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2559

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

Image
Red = stocks
Green = stock/bond 50/50
by seajay
Sat Mar 04, 2023 1:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 235
Views: 183233

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Considering counter-party risk, bank deposits = banks money, your name recorded in its creditors book; Stock purchases = shares registered in the brokers name, your name recorded in its creditors book. Worsened by governments looking to push the transition away from taxpayers based bailouts towards ...
by seajay
Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:29 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2559

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

For gold, inflation ...etc. data https://www.measuringworth.com/ has extended historical data
by seajay
Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2559

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

Seajay, very interesting. I didn't know that Britain ended gold convertibility so long before the US. I'm curious as to how you came up with 1793 as a start date. And I'm not entirely convinced that the 1932 date isn't a bit of cherry-picking as well. In any case, it's very impressive. 1793 was the...
by seajay
Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:27 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 986
Views: 76411

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

A concern is the starting of a new weapons race, where nukes are old-hat. Simple vertical launch missiles that inject a deadly virus into the jet stream that traverses the world to end all life as we know it. Assured mutual destruction, but where the proliferation is more inclined to see accidents. ...
by seajay
Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2559

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

British perspective since 1793 for 50/50 US$ invested in US stocks/gold. Where when gold was money (Sovereign gold One Pound coins pre 1930's) its assumed that they lent that gold (money) to the state, as a form of safe keeping of their gold coins - which in return they were paid interest. From 1932...
by seajay
Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:20 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 986
Views: 76411

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

What with the starvation, and now more recent invasion by a vile terrorist neighbour, I'm certain that Ukraine deeply regrets having ever believed Russian promises when it surrendered its nukes. Caught twice, one would expect Ukraine to never be caught out again. Can't see how a negotiated settlemen...
by seajay
Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2559

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

It's not a consistent inflation hedge. If you dropped 33% into stock, 67% into gold, non rebalanced, spent gold first then historically a 3% SWR ranged from gold lasting 13 years to ... many many years. So in the lower case you only got back 13 x 3 = 39 of the initial 67 gold value amount (in inflat...
by seajay
Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 16
Views: 1855

Re: 75% stocks and 25% gold

I know Hal has posted before: By Request Mixes of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold belangp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA2Yr6NoZyA Spoiler: The sweet spot was 65% stocks, 35% gold That is how I have decided to fund retirement accounts going forward and save in cash outside of retirement. It also makes i...
by seajay
Mon Feb 27, 2023 12:32 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 986
Views: 76411

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

vnatale wrote:
Tue Feb 14, 2023 6:54 pm
Image
More recently, a pocket of RU/Wagner have been surrounded/lost

Image
by seajay
Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:16 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 986
Views: 76411

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I think it may be more accurate to say that the weapons systems given to Ukraine by the West are not supposed be used for attacking Russia in Russia. Thanks, I didn't realize these strings were attached to the weapons. I have wondered whether some type of offensive might be the only way for Ukraine...
by seajay
Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:58 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Fox News
Replies: 38
Views: 2213

Re: Fox News

Show me that verse in the Bible wherein God designated someone to receive the sacred list of all the attributes that represent the political "right-wing". :) The bible was mis-translated, as evidenced by the ancients who worshipped the sun, for they knew the true source of gold In gold we trust Gol...
by seajay
Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?
Replies: 20
Views: 2025

Re: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?

Land, gold, art is the traditional choice. Capitalism is now the minority, for instance whilst the majority of UN countries condone the Ukraine war, the small number that abstain account for near two-thirds of the total global population. US sanctions are pretty much just further self-harm, inducing...
by seajay
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:21 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 986
Views: 76411

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Ukraine is restricted from launching attacks across the attackers border. With China looking likely to start supplying Russia with weapons surely that ridiculous constraint upon Ukraine should be lifted and be supplied with weapons capable of striking Moscow. When Putin's scorch earth/genocide/repla...
by seajay
Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:27 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214938

Re: The GOLD scream room

I've heard of some complaining about scuff marks, scratches, even pits etc. With softer metals (near 24ct gold) processing where coins drop on top of each other and that rattle around in tubes when being transported can leave scuffing. I didn’t mention it here or to Apmex, but one of my tubes of si...
by seajay
Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?
Replies: 20
Views: 2025

Re: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?

My portfolio now consists of my house, a lot of cash and boring, stodgy dividend stocks from tobacco and alcohol companies, railroads, utilities, gas pipeline companies etc. etc. I have no idea if it will make it thru the debt apocalypse but I’m rolling with it. Pre 1930's and bonds total returns r...
by seajay
Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214938

Re: The GOLD scream room

Oddly enough the new 1oz Brittania's with his majesty Charles III has the smallest spread (1.25%) at my local dealer now. Bargain, not ? Seems he is not very popular amongst investors O0 Poor Charles. That’s going to be my next coin, if I have anything left over after taxes. Property tax always wip...
by seajay
Sat Feb 11, 2023 7:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Replies: 100
Views: 17702

Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Gold continues to be a non-fiat global currency that the US dollar aspires to peg to, but that periodically has and likely will continue fail to do so reliably. Chances are that as/when divergence occurs that they will move in opposite directions. Yellen has been attempting to at least in part align...