Search found 430 matches

by seajay
Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:05 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1159
Views: 827554

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter. Ukrainians feel betrayed by the US, As they should. Where did you read about the nuclear threat, Seajay? I have only read Putin’s veiled threats about using nukes, but only if t...
by seajay
Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:27 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1159
Views: 827554

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I don’t accept that we’re using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, as if they are puppets and have no choice in the matter. Ukrainians feel betrayed by the US, Republicans vetoing aid and past limitations that restricted Ukraine to having to fight with one arm tied behind its back signifying more a c...
by seajay
Fri Mar 22, 2024 1:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP as Emergency Fund / Income Source
Replies: 8
Views: 335

Re: PP as Emergency Fund / Income Source

Even with just stocks and gold I don't see any issues with cash flows. Sell some of whichever is the most-up (above target % weighting) at the time. Use/have a credit card and that can cover a modest sized emergency, above that and its just a case of selling some shares or gold (T+2 "withdrawal noti...
by seajay
Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)
Replies: 17
Views: 1208

Re: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)

A concern IMO is that of the 120+ paper to gold ratio https://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html In any situation when there are 120 claims on paper to each single item (ounce of gold) there is a risk of a gold-rush, panicked rush to have paper gold delivered as physical gold and where there ...
by seajay
Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 578

Re: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?

Spot the difference between 10 year Treasury and a 50/50 STT/LTT barbell https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=24hdbWlW5b93xL88ujgb6z Near-as ... the same. As might a ladder of 1, 2, 3 ... 19, 20 year bonds similarly compare. A conservative 33/67 stock/bond portf...
by seajay
Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:37 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)
Replies: 17
Views: 1208

Re: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)

Thank you for your response, Sophie. I would be interested in your thoughts about the political factors, but I understand why you might not want to elaborate. At one time, not sure if it still holds, Australia prepared for a currency run such that all of the legislation to lock gold within the coun...
by seajay
Tue Feb 27, 2024 3:09 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)
Replies: 17
Views: 1208

Re: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)

Hi Sophie. I don't like lending to someone who gets to set/revise the rules/terms/conditions. Opted to shift 'bond' risk (which for me includes 'cash' (short term bonds)), over to the stock side as per Larry S. advice. Would rather hold cold/hard cash and some stocks rather than bonds or having cash...
by seajay
Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:05 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Avenue (an overseas storage option in Switzerland)
Replies: 22
Views: 1241

Re: Gold Avenue (an overseas storage option in Switzerland)

Still (off-topic to avoid starting yet more threads) I am more and more convinced to give up on allocated storage and divide my gold between physically held, unallocated at PM and the ETFs. Giving up between 0.3% up to 1.15% yearly for storing gold I won't ever see anyway (not to mention the hassle...
by seajay
Sun Dec 17, 2023 2:56 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold peg
Replies: 13
Views: 17310

Re: Gold peg

I think that’s funny that I wrote “holding the hold” in a previous post. Sounds poetic but of course I meant to write gold . On a number of occasions I've typed god instead of gold! Some I guess have equal contempt with whether another holds in-god-we-trust or in-gold-we-trust. I like your Disney s...
by seajay
Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold peg
Replies: 13
Views: 17310

Re: Gold peg

I dunno why they dont raise taxes or cut spending Our government is captured by special interests who want short term bennies and who don't care about the LT survivability of the United States. With the internet shifting things around in real time, those voted in are more interested in how they're ...
by seajay
Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:15 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold peg
Replies: 13
Views: 17310

Re: Gold peg

And swap for what? If you’re asking what I would swap the gold ETFs for, suggesting I wouldn’t be able to take delivery, well that’s definitely a risk, and the reason I went all physical. ETFs are convenient, but it doesn’t feel the same as holding the hold. If you’re asking what asset I would aban...
by seajay
Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:03 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 262667

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

I don't think doing abortions in the 9th month is OK at all, but think about this: 1. Mother-to-be presents in the emergency department with a severe emergency in the 9th month I specifically referred to elective abortions in the ninth month. If the health of the mother is at stake, that should be ...
by seajay
Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold peg
Replies: 13
Views: 17310

Re: Gold peg

There’s a lot in seajay’s post. It’ll be interesting to see what happens if & when dedollarization makes significant headway. I haven’t rebalanced out of gold and I occasionally add, always physical,always 1-ounce coins. Sometimes I feel the urge to move back into something more easily tradeable an...
by seajay
Sun Nov 05, 2023 2:23 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: High cost gold depositories are you giving your gold away
Replies: 13
Views: 14987

Re: High cost gold depositories are you giving your gold away

Diversify your gold, third in-hand, third in a remote (Bullion)vault , third in a form that can be easily converted to bitcoin ( Paxos ) In hand self-insured 0% overheads. BullionVault indicative 0.33% year if held for 5 years (inclusive of buy/sell and insurance). Paxos somewhat similar overheads. ...
by seajay
Sun Oct 22, 2023 2:13 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: A Simple Parable about Israel
Replies: 12
Views: 10401

Re: A Simple Parable about Israel

Judaism pre dates Islam - that dispersed the Jews all around the world, with a sizeable number in Germany - who during WW2 persecuted them and post WW2 America offered them the return of their former sacred lands. Many fled the German persecution during the war years to their sacred land such that t...
by seajay
Fri Oct 06, 2023 7:10 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program
Replies: 5
Views: 11662

Re: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program

Thank you for the insight seajay. It sounds like a difficult environment to save in. I found the NS&I website while googling how to buy UK bonds and the rates look to be quite a bit lower than what I would expect. I am not sure what to compare this service with. It seems like it might be similar to...
by seajay
Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:17 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: An American’s long scribblings on diplomacy with China and Russia
Replies: 2
Views: 2945

Re: An American’s long scribblings on diplomacy with China and Russia

The 'state' is just another name for the biggest/strongest gang in town. Make money from the likes of gambling (betting duties) and drugs (alcohol, cigarettes taxation), collect their protection payments (taxes) or otherwise individuals risk harm (imprisonment). They have their heavies (Police/Army)...
by seajay
Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:54 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program
Replies: 5
Views: 11662

Re: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program

In the UK its easier to buy short term treasury's (Gilts) than T-Bills. Can be expensive for smaller amounts though, the larger the amount the closer you get to the bond market and the lower the cost. Our TIPS (Index Linked Gilts) exempt price appreciation taxation, interest is taxed, so generally l...
by seajay
Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Meme Thread
Replies: 279
Views: 220571

Re: The Meme Thread

For most people it’s just not worth the money though in my opinion. Apple laptops are inexpensive, you can often pick them up in local cafe's for next to nothing ... providing you can run quick enough. Joking aside, here in the UK and shoplifting has spiked sharply, there's so much of it going on t...
by seajay
Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight
Replies: 22
Views: 16726

Re: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight

I mean come on, the Cold War’s been over for 30 years. Why do we still have troops stationed in Germany, etc ? It’s ridiculous. We have enough nuclear missiles in submarines to blow up plenty of cities. NATO is just another big-government racket. Anyone who wasn’t a NATO apologist would clearly see...
by seajay
Thu Oct 05, 2023 12:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?
Replies: 13
Views: 13883

Re: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?

I came close during covid. LTT must be getting close for some of us. The LTTs are 16.4% of my classic 4x25 HBPP Would have been even closer to 15% if the other componentes didn't have sunk at the same time recently. As the yield curve reverts from inverted, each of stock, gold, LTT might be down sh...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 4:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: 50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond
Replies: 2
Views: 4276

Re: 50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond

Isn't 67/33 Stock/Gold even better than 50/50 Stock/Gold though? As a comparison to 67/33 stock/bond (a typical BH asset allocation) however, 50/50 stock/PM historically compared well. US data real annualised since 1871 both 5.7%, 30 year worst maxWR% 4.16% vs 4.17% (67/33 TSM/TBM vs 50/50 TSM/PM r...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 4:41 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Is Germany Getting Ready for Another Demagogue?
Replies: 52
Views: 34808

Re: Is Germany Getting Ready for Another Demagogue?

Here's a short list of civilian deaths due to house fires, slipping in the shower, etc. (I'm sure none could be related to incendiary steel cylinders falling from US/NATO planes shortly before): 500,000 Germans, 1941 to 1945 1,000,000 Japanese, 1941 to 1945 2,000,000 Vietnamese, 1955 to 1975 500,00...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight
Replies: 22
Views: 16726

Re: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight

Works both ways. 250,000 Russians killed/wounded per year is many upset families. A small number initially relative to total population and where the first year has been mostly expendables, prisoners. With that cohort spent others are being rounded up and dispatched to the grinder as bullet fodder. ...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: 50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond
Replies: 2
Views: 4276

50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond

This post over on BH https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7485516#p7485516 caught my eye, in particular ... Second, there always has been a segment of Bogleheads (supported by research) that prefers to have a higher stock allocarion and use cash equivalents for their fixed income. So ins...