Search found 418 matches

by seajay
Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold peg
Replies: 8
Views: 1060

Re: Gold peg

There’s a lot in seajay’s post. It’ll be interesting to see what happens if & when dedollarization makes significant headway. I haven’t rebalanced out of gold and I occasionally add, always physical,always 1-ounce coins. Sometimes I feel the urge to move back into something more easily tradeable an...
by seajay
Sun Nov 05, 2023 2:23 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: High cost gold depositories are you giving your gold away
Replies: 13
Views: 2424

Re: High cost gold depositories are you giving your gold away

Diversify your gold, third in-hand, third in a remote (Bullion)vault , third in a form that can be easily converted to bitcoin ( Paxos ) In hand self-insured 0% overheads. BullionVault indicative 0.33% year if held for 5 years (inclusive of buy/sell and insurance). Paxos somewhat similar overheads. ...
by seajay
Sun Oct 22, 2023 2:13 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: A Simple Parable about Israel
Replies: 12
Views: 2587

Re: A Simple Parable about Israel

Judaism pre dates Islam - that dispersed the Jews all around the world, with a sizeable number in Germany - who during WW2 persecuted them and post WW2 America offered them the return of their former sacred lands. Many fled the German persecution during the war years to their sacred land such that t...
by seajay
Fri Oct 06, 2023 7:10 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program
Replies: 5
Views: 6284

Re: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program

Thank you for the insight seajay. It sounds like a difficult environment to save in. I found the NS&I website while googling how to buy UK bonds and the rates look to be quite a bit lower than what I would expect. I am not sure what to compare this service with. It seems like it might be similar to...
by seajay
Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:17 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: An American’s long scribblings on diplomacy with China and Russia
Replies: 2
Views: 342

Re: An American’s long scribblings on diplomacy with China and Russia

The 'state' is just another name for the biggest/strongest gang in town. Make money from the likes of gambling (betting duties) and drugs (alcohol, cigarettes taxation), collect their protection payments (taxes) or otherwise individuals risk harm (imprisonment). They have their heavies (Police/Army)...
by seajay
Fri Oct 06, 2023 11:54 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program
Replies: 5
Views: 6284

Re: EU IBKR: Cash yield enhancement program

In the UK its easier to buy short term treasury's (Gilts) than T-Bills. Can be expensive for smaller amounts though, the larger the amount the closer you get to the bond market and the lower the cost. Our TIPS (Index Linked Gilts) exempt price appreciation taxation, interest is taxed, so generally l...
by seajay
Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Meme Thread
Replies: 282
Views: 48147

Re: The Meme Thread

For most people it’s just not worth the money though in my opinion. Apple laptops are inexpensive, you can often pick them up in local cafe's for next to nothing ... providing you can run quick enough. Joking aside, here in the UK and shoplifting has spiked sharply, there's so much of it going on t...
by seajay
Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight
Replies: 22
Views: 893

Re: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight

I mean come on, the Cold War’s been over for 30 years. Why do we still have troops stationed in Germany, etc ? It’s ridiculous. We have enough nuclear missiles in submarines to blow up plenty of cities. NATO is just another big-government racket. Anyone who wasn’t a NATO apologist would clearly see...
by seajay
Thu Oct 05, 2023 12:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?
Replies: 13
Views: 3005

Re: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?

I came close during covid. LTT must be getting close for some of us. The LTTs are 16.4% of my classic 4x25 HBPP Would have been even closer to 15% if the other componentes didn't have sunk at the same time recently. As the yield curve reverts from inverted, each of stock, gold, LTT might be down sh...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 4:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: 50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond
Replies: 2
Views: 680

Re: 50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond

Isn't 67/33 Stock/Gold even better than 50/50 Stock/Gold though? As a comparison to 67/33 stock/bond (a typical BH asset allocation) however, 50/50 stock/PM historically compared well. US data real annualised since 1871 both 5.7%, 30 year worst maxWR% 4.16% vs 4.17% (67/33 TSM/TBM vs 50/50 TSM/PM r...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 4:41 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Is Germany Getting Ready for Another Demagogue?
Replies: 52
Views: 2916

Re: Is Germany Getting Ready for Another Demagogue?

Here's a short list of civilian deaths due to house fires, slipping in the shower, etc. (I'm sure none could be related to incendiary steel cylinders falling from US/NATO planes shortly before): 500,000 Germans, 1941 to 1945 1,000,000 Japanese, 1941 to 1945 2,000,000 Vietnamese, 1955 to 1975 500,00...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight
Replies: 22
Views: 893

Re: Broken Promises Have Consequences: hundreds of thousands dead, no end in sight

Works both ways. 250,000 Russians killed/wounded per year is many upset families. A small number initially relative to total population and where the first year has been mostly expendables, prisoners. With that cohort spent others are being rounded up and dispatched to the grinder as bullet fodder. ...
by seajay
Mon Oct 02, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: 50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond
Replies: 2
Views: 680

50/50 Stock/Gold vs 67/33 stock/bond

This post over on BH https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7485516#p7485516 caught my eye, in particular ... Second, there always has been a segment of Bogleheads (supported by research) that prefers to have a higher stock allocarion and use cash equivalents for their fixed income. So ins...
by seajay
Wed Sep 27, 2023 11:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ARM (chip designer)
Replies: 16
Views: 30003

Re: ARM (chip designer)

Would have thought that the public listing was more a case of sell high for the prior owners, market peak, rather than potential significant upside/growth. I didn’t address this earlier. From what I’ve read, the former owners will have an even bigger stake now than they had before the IPO. I’ll see...
by seajay
Wed Sep 27, 2023 11:06 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 10562

Re: TLT cracks $90

Increasingly leaning towards not lending ... no bonds nor cash deposits, the interest paid is often too low, more so after the taxman takes a slice. Swap the bond risk (25% in each of STT/LTT) over to the stock side (25/25 stock/hard-cash). Comparing historic 50/25/25 stock/PM/hard-cash to that of t...
by seajay
Wed Sep 20, 2023 1:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ARM (chip designer)
Replies: 16
Views: 30003

Re: ARM (chip designer)

Isn't ARM ... Advanced, Reduced instruction set computer (RISC), Machines already pretty much within everything electronic nowadays. From your phone, TV, TV remote controller, washing machine, vacuum cleaner, central heating controller, burglar alarm ...etc. Would have thought that the public listin...
by seajay
Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 14632

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

^ thanks for update. Looks like ill be forced into Canada's MAID https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/yxayan/canada_will_soon_allow_medically_assisted_dying/?sort=controversial Lived with grandma during her last 10 years. what TV narratives dont tell you is its not simply "memory loss" like...
by seajay
Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 49178

Re: PP Mistakes

The PP's Cash/LTT barbell does make the PP somewhat bond heavy. A alternative is thirds each stock/bond/gold. Thirds TSM/10 year Treasury's/Gold instead of 25% each TSM/STT/LTT/gold PV For non-US investors, combine that with three way currency diversification, third domestic ITT, third US$ fiat curr...
by seajay
Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 49178

Re: PP Mistakes

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT have been the most costliest words to bet on in the english language Mathjak, you're fond of saying that, but isn't it pretty clear that the outperformance of US equities over the past century or so has been the weird outlier? Why aren't the people who plan on that outperform...
by seajay
Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 49178

Re: PP Mistakes

1980 was a great start year for stocks, a (very) bad start year for gold. That aside and start 1980 with 50/50 stock/gold, where you left that as-is but looked to deploy gold into stock when stocks dipped, and at the end of 1987 might have been selected as the time to do that. Stocks and gold tend t...
by seajay
Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1116
Views: 124578

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Do not know how accurate or reliable this source is: https://news.yahoo.com/national-resistance-center-russia-plans-002746713.html National Resistance Center: Russia plans to bring North Korean workers to occupied Ukraine Rachel Amran Sun, September 17, 2023 at 8:27 PM EDT·1 min read Mine sweepers ...
by seajay
Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 53315

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

https://www.usfunds.com/resource/central-banks-are-buying-gold-at-a-record-pace-so-far-in-2023/ This is after record purchases in 2022. Are there any reasons to explain these purchases besides them knowing something we don’t know? Mostly Russia, China, Turkey, Singapore. Perhaps preferring to buy g...
by seajay
Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 49178

Re: PP Mistakes

If you go back to 1980, a $10k investment in stocks would be worth over $1 million now. PP would be $200k and ST Treasuries $99k. So what you are telling me that after finally graduating college in 1978 (with masters at age 27) and had saved my first $1,000 in 1979 and was agonizing what to do with...
by seajay
Sat Sep 16, 2023 7:58 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 53315

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

I think gold will still have relevance in the decades to come. I don't see Bitcoin being a threat to gold so much as it is a complement. Gold has long stood alongside silver and copper, as an example. I think Bitcoin and maybe a couple other cryptocurrencies have simply enlarged our set of viable o...
by seajay
Tue Sep 12, 2023 10:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 49178

Re: PP Mistakes

I regret buying long bonds near the top in the last 2-3 years, hoping that an agnostic dollar cost averaging approach would serve me well in the long run. I have become somewhat less purist and time some of my purchases , preferring to accumulate cash to 35% allocation then spread it around , typic...