Search found 122 matches

by seajay
Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3970

Re: Yay PP!

OK last question for MJ. Is the following statement true? This statement is false. Jumping in, reminded of ... You are a prisoner in a room with 2 doors and 2 guards. One of the doors will guide you to freedom and behind the other is a hangman–you don't know which is which. One of the guards always...
by seajay
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3970

Re: Yay PP!

Kitces looked into rebalancing . Assuming a 50/50 with an average of 10% a year on equities and bonds averaging 5% , over 30 years the 50/50 would become 80/20 just letting assets drift https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-rebalancing-usually-reduces-long-term-returns-but-is-good-risk-management-anyway/...
by seajay
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The Gold Clause (in 1981)
Replies: 1
Views: 100

Re: The Gold Clause (in 1981)

Pre 1931 UK (Pound) could be converted to/from gold at a fixed/constant rate. Gold Clauses as such were pretty much just a declaration of payments being either in ounces of gold or Pound currency.. In the present era where the two are not pegged but free-floating then a for instance is in India wher...
by seajay
Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3251

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

By the way I lost all my bitcoin in a virtual boating accident. But imagine in 10 years time when a copy of the present encrypted public blockchain (ledger) is easily viewed by the technology available at that time and the FBI come calling on seeing that your historic claim of loss was in fact a li...
by seajay
Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Good tutorial on Gold as a hedge
Replies: 1
Views: 651

Re: Good tutorial on Gold as a hedge

US 10 year real annualized % total returns by decades Decade 72-79 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s stock -2 26 14 -3 11 gold 10.5 -7.2 -6 11 1 Average 4.25 9.4 4 4 6 In two of the last 5 decades poor returns from stocks saw modest/reasonable gains from gold In the other three cases that flipped around W...
by seajay
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3251

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Interesting perspective. I talked to someone for El Salvador today (where Bitcoin has just become legal tender) and they said people are getting hacked and losing their Bitcoin. I did get a chance to dig into details but getting hacked could become a serious problem if more of the general populatio...
by seajay
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:35 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3251

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels some...
by seajay
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3251

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

The blockchain records everything, for all time. Nodes provide duplicate copies of that ledger to verify consistency, discrepancies flag up warnings but where the most common/numerously consistent copies are considered as the valid copy. Make a copy of today's ledger and in 10, whatever years time d...
by seajay
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp
Replies: 6
Views: 347

Re: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp

4% is alReady very conservative .. a 3% draw to me is very inefficient use of ones money …I mean that is a pay cut of 25%. Subjectively, for instance depends upon sequence of returns in the run up to retirement. End of 2016 and a 60 year old with 20x accumulating in stocks versus 25x anticipated ye...
by seajay
Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp
Replies: 6
Views: 347

Re: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp

I saw A brief mention of the pp by hulbert for those interested . “immunize the bulk of your portfolio from any short-term speculative trading to which your daily obsessions might lead you. My preferred way of doing that was proposed decades ago by the late Harry Browne, editor of a newsletter call...
by seajay
Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3970

Re: Yay PP!

Not rebalancing things like gold has to hurt …gold spikes and then when the smoke clears it rolls back . Odds are if you don’t harvest the spike it goes away. Gold can start a year , spike , roll back and by years end go no where or be down. You would need a long bull market in equities for not reb...
by seajay
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:11 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3251

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels somew...
by seajay
Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:07 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Password security
Replies: 1
Views: 90

Re: Password security

vnatale wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:54 pm
Anyone able to comment on the validity of what is in this table?
Its just suggestive rather than actual. More so for the bottom right. And all very subjective. Btc use 32 mixed character passwords/keys and some states are indicating 7 minute quantum processing power time to crack such.
by seajay
Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin question (How did FBI recover some pipeline ransom)
Replies: 6
Views: 306

Re: Bitcoin question (How did FBI recover some pipeline ransom)

This is mis-information all BTC transactions are visible to anyone on the blockchain. I make this point every time somebody extols the privacy benefits of Bitcoin. Literally all your transactions are recorded permanently, publicly, and for all time. That's the opposite of "privacy" in every way. Ne...
by seajay
Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 89
Views: 2436

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

I've noticed in the past that even adjusting to different start months for yearly data can throw out quite dissimilar worst case years outcomes. Whether the yearly granularity aligns with or avoids a volatility spike (volatility tends to cluster so a negative spike at one point tends to have a adjac...
by seajay
Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 89
Views: 2436

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Historically it helped to include some gold in a otherwise stock/bond blend. The difference between 50/50 stock/bond and 40/60 is broadly just noise, so adding in some gold might have 40/40/20 stock/bond/gold. For 40/60 adding in more volatile stock holdings (SCV/bonds) might further narrow the diff...
by seajay
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?
Replies: 11
Views: 802

Re: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?

Same might be said for stocks. 100% S&P500 for instance still has a element of single stock index risk, such as perhaps being excessively tilted into a single sector (techs pre dot com bubble bursting, banks pre 2008/9 financial crisis). The Golden Butterfly in part addresses that for the stock hold...
by seajay
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead. The same applies to the pp …when 3 or all 4 asset classes fall it is like having a very high equity level as far as down is down. There is no yin vs Yang going on. My models are no different….nothing is standing up But a less unco...
by seajay
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Virtual Gold (bonds)
Replies: 3
Views: 231

Re: Virtual Gold (bonds)

No. It averages into the asset you opine has the lowest-prospect/seems-high. Gold in 1980 (Dow/Gold ratio was down at 1.0 levels), LTT's as of recent. In the example that started with 0% gold in 1980, so thirds each stock/STT/LTT, along with 25% virtual (pretend) gold - so a actual conventional PP b...
by seajay
Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Virtual Gold (bonds)
Replies: 3
Views: 231

Virtual Gold (bonds)

Many recently dislike long dated treasuries, due to low yields. rising inflation and interest rate risk. The same however might have been said about gold in the early 1980's when the Dow/Gold ratio was down at near 1.0 levels. Yet that subsequently provided a means to accumulate/cost-average gold. B...
by seajay
Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?
Replies: 11
Views: 802

Re: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?

We dont necessarily want everyone hoarding a deflationary currency under the bed. People risking their funds on companies is good for growth/innovation And the taxman, and brokers, market markers, fund managers ...etc. Print/spend money and that devalues all other notes in circulation, is a form of...
by seajay
Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 109
Views: 6713

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Over the last couple of years this forum has seen lots of discussions about the current environment of historically low rates, unprecedented money printing and growing inflation and how it affects their attitude towards long-term Treasury bonds as part of PP. Some people stay the course and keep bu...
by seajay
Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:44 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Executive Forum Member Check-In Thread
Replies: 49
Views: 3337

Re: Executive Forum Member Check-In Thread

Has anyone gotten this month's executive member gift basket? Mine usually arrives Tuesday or Wednesday on the first week of the month. It's late a few weeks, probably just COVID-related supply chain delays? Mine arrived!!! https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/download/file.php?id=2234 Somethin...
by seajay
Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

The PP is dead. The hope for the pp is that rising rates and covid kill growth and knock us towards recession stalling the rise Certainly plausible . But the only question is how much the pp will need to work its way back ..almost every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve Whi...
by seajay
Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I'm seeing 1.73x average leveraged PP, having provided 2x the reward since 1963 ... Dropping PP cash to invest in the other three assets = 1.33x leverage Dropping the asset at the start of each decade that has the lowest prospect to provide a 100%, 200% type reward, leaves just two assets, so 2x lev...