Search found 176 matches

by seajay
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7966

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Exactly. I stick with 100% stocks because the kinds of historical calamities that wiped out stocks typically wiped out bonds and cash as well. It's hard to tell what gold would have done at the time, had it been a freely tradeable commodity without a fixed price, but I suspect it would have gone up...
by seajay
Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Some support for investing in Gold
Replies: 7
Views: 1692

Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Some support for investing in Gold! Is It Time to Invest in Gold? Stock market volatility has given investors gold fever. If you chase the rally, don’t overdo it. July/August 1999 was the more attractive time to buy gold. Dow/Gold ratio was high (stocks expensive/gold cheap), in the UK you could bu...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 884

Re: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds

Cross link that may be of interest viewtopic.php?p=242237#p242237
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 56
Views: 3118

Re: US / International weight

likely differences in actual outcomes might be considered as just noise. That is my big takeaway with this months long exercise of looking at investing and picking an AA. After a point, fine tuning is just blowing kisses into the wind. Investor swapping around their asset allocation tends to on ave...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7966

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. Stock heavy investors are more inclined to looking to have that and also hope to see substantial wealth expansion. They'll cite that in the worst...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 56
Views: 3118

Re: US / International weight

50/50 is a general good choice/balance. A factor with stocks is that they include bond exposure, stocks on average borrow (issue corporate bonds/whatever) half their book-value, whilst share prices are broadly priced to 2x book value. So each $1 of stock purchase also buys into 25c of short bond exp...
by seajay
Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7966

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. PP investors are more inclined to look at investing as putting aside surplus capital today and anticipate that having maintained its purchase pow...
by seajay
Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7966

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Do you have a mechanism for telling which asset is the "rat poison" ahead of time? For British investors, a third each UK home, US$ bills (hard currency), gold, for a century+ history sustained a 2.6% SWR, excluding imputed rent benefit. Historic imputed rent averaged 4.2% so 1.4% proportioned to a...
by seajay
Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7966

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

What if the PP held 50% in a 20 year Treasury Ladder instead of a Short/Long dated treasury barbell? Each year around 2.5% of the portfolio value matures into cash, and 2.5% of the ongoing portfolio value is used to buy another 20 year Treasury. Average maturity 10 years. In cash terms after the por...
by seajay
Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7966

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun. Take a PP, chuck out the cash element as that's just a portfolio de-leverage, rebalance once per decade, (maybe) eliminating what is the ...
by seajay
Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 35
Views: 2316

Re: Gold is not an investment

Gold is a competitor to the dollar and also bonds , not equites A new retiree initially loading 50/50 stock/gold, non-rebalanced, spending gold first - as though cash/T-Bills, historically tended to see that gold last relatively few years, 7 or so (4% SWR), as per 1980 start date, or many years, 22...
by seajay
Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 19
Views: 1124

Re: Overseas Gold? 2022

Australian law has a history of permitting gold to be 'confiscated' at a pen-stroke, with no need for any Parliamentary Bill (Bill already pre-passed), in order to support the AUD (at a price set by the central bank). Never applied, instead past part confiscations include setting a 50% taxation rate...
by seajay
Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: On Civility
Replies: 57
Views: 1844

Re: On Civility

I’ve been curious about the principles of moderation for this forum. For example, under what circumstances do the moderators take action? Regarding lost soldiers, anyone know what happened to vincent_c? Seems like he left and deleted all his posts. I’m curious if anyone knows why. I occasionally ca...
by seajay
Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16233

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Others can decide if what i said was wrong . You are just argumentative and a dick . You clearly implied I said something that I didn’t. . Clearly don’t understand spending down to live is based on portfolio value not dividend spending Clearly like to harp on what you can construe as false but is s...
by seajay
Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Interesting Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 535

Re: Interesting Portfolio

Momentum works, until it doesn't - such as when it repeatedly zig-zags in/out again. Counter cycles can often be observed in a broad range of assets. Gold/Silver ratio, Gold/Dow ratio ...etc. If looking to reduce exposure to the worst asset then a variant might be to equal weight domestic/internatio...
by seajay
Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 35
Views: 2316

Re: Gold is not an investment

It's a risk diversifier. Some in-hand non-fiat currency/commodity. Whenever counter-party and/or fiat-currency risk arises, perhaps banks/markets closed due to a natural or man-made event, then holding some portable in-hand physical asset is better than not. When markets/circumstances are pricing as...
by seajay
Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16233

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jul 09, 2022 7:31 am
99 dollars is .00003% of the portfolio
Congratulation on getting to a third of a $billion portfolio value :) [I know ... pretty sure you meant 0.003%]
by seajay
Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:34 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34512

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Putin Threatens To Deploy New Satan II Nuclear Missile That Can Reach UK In 3 Minutes https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-threatens-to-deploy-new-satan-ii-nuclear-missile-that-can-reach-uk-in-3-minutes//ar-AAYK0o5?li=BBnbfcL shit got real The average person will read that headline as, “Putin...
by seajay
Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 4484

Re: Fed damaging bond market

In computing one of the greatest security risks is between the keyboard and back of chair. The same also holds for investment risk. Swapping/changing (profit chasing) on average yields worse outcomes than had the investor just held cash deposits. Another primary risk is that of earlier years sequenc...
by seajay
Thu Apr 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 4484

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I’ve always liked the philosophy but in action you lose a lot to a traditional 60/40 For some, its not a personal loss risk, rather a potential loss risk for heirs/charities/taxman. PP diversification equally across cash, stocks, bonds, gold includes in part sub-sets of all other choices of asset a...
by seajay
Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway
Replies: 28
Views: 2648

Re: Berkshire Hathaway

BRK up 42% in a year, baby BRK (MKL) up 32%. But still happy given the risk of transition from having one foot in the grave to going all in.
by seajay
Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 2210

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

I ascribe to buy, hold and rebalance as long as the risk/reward relationship exists for these assets. I no longer see LTT’s as worth holding and understand that I may not benefit from a flight to safety (although LTT’s have gone down steadily with the war, inflation and other headwinds). I initiall...
by seajay
Fri Mar 25, 2022 12:48 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 2210

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

Ouch! Stocks, gold and cash are the order of the day. It no longer makes sense to me to hold bonds. Start of 1980 and the Dow/Gold was down at 1.0 levels, gold was priced at 524/oz, it made no sense to hold gold, and such a prediction was true, by the end of 1999 when the Dow/Gold ratio had risen t...
by seajay
Sat Mar 19, 2022 7:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.
Replies: 13
Views: 1548

Re: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.

25% Gold held off-shore. Any thoughts on this since the Perth mint doesn't seem quite as appealing as it once was? Was it ever? Australian law is such that it has confiscatory powers already enshrined into law, available to be enacted via a simple signature, and that includes the baring of gold bei...
by seajay
Sat Mar 19, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.
Replies: 13
Views: 1548

Re: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.

A 18 month old article https://www.rbth.com/business/332673-russia-china-us-dollar-america The share of trade operations between Russia and China using the U.S. dollar fell to 46 percent in the first quarter of 2020, while holding at 90 only five years ago. The de-dollarization initiative in Russia ...