Search found 478 matches

by seajay
Sun Feb 02, 2025 1:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

But if you held 10/90 3x Nasdaq100 (TQQQ)/gold instead of 50/50 S&P500/gold, or 4/96 BitCoin/gold ... rebalanced once yearly and bitcoin went to zero a 4% hit is more a glitch than critical https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=OSacjIO4nLChthtPsx67X Basically the way ...
by seajay
Sun Feb 02, 2025 9:42 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

The "West" was primarily comprised of the US, Canada, UK, some of Europe, Australia, Japan and some of the Middle East. Trump has declared tariffs on Canada, Biden already pretty much alienated the UK, as did Trump in his prior presidency alienate the EU. Australia is more aligning to trad...
by seajay
Sun Feb 02, 2025 9:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

I appreciate you pointing that out! Vinny's question and your response raise the interesting question of what a Bitcoin actually is. They are tokens that allow you to transact on the system. If you have no tokens, you cannot pay miners to process your transaction, and you have no tokens to send to ...
by seajay
Thu Jan 30, 2025 4:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

... But, the network is here to stay, isn't it. Maybe. The economics of BTC mining provide diminishing returns with every halving period (every 4 years). I wrote this article a few weeks ago that explains the problem with the security model (it's not too technical): https://www.pmbug.com/threads/kn...
by seajay
Thu Jan 30, 2025 4:18 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

How and where to view crypto transaction histories https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-and- ... -histories
by seajay
Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

Blockchain is a public constantly growing public ledger of transactions histories. A set of account numbers and transaction histories of each deposit/withdrawal into/from each account. Individual public keys enables anyone with a individual public key to credit the associated account, is like knowin...
by seajay
Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Assorted Gold-related News
Replies: 33
Views: 18659

Re: Assorted Gold-related News

FT publishes story about BoE gold deliveries now delayed by 4-8 weeks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KlQXJ9EuhY Busy rush by Americans importing gold ahead of potential Trump tariffs (higher domestic prices for Americans to buy imported gold), however I suspect gold/silver would be exempt from s...
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 11:10 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Assorted Gold-related News
Replies: 33
Views: 18659

Re: Assorted Gold-related News

Woke era. Here in the UK and shoplifting up to GBP200 is pretty much ignored by the Police. Regular events now in most shops. Per person also, so in some cases a gang walks in and take goods up to that value each and walk out, where the security guard pretty much wont confront them nor the Police tu...
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 10:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: the accelerated permanent portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2476

Re: the accelerated permanent portfolio

Part of de-dollarisation. Swap out Treasury's for gold, swap out Stocks for BTC, and a country is separated from the likes of the sanctions that the US applied to Russia. BRICS-PAY for clearance rather than SWIFT. Which in turn weakens the US militarily - can't so easily export inflation, print doll...
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 10:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: the accelerated permanent portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2476

Re: the accelerated permanent portfolio

The creeping presence of BTC on corporate balance sheets will play a part in creating a correlation between Bitcoin and stocks. The four public companies with the largest BTC balances – MicroStrategy Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings, Coinbase, and Square Inc. and the rise and fall of Bitcoin will hav...
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 8:50 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

Very interesting. I trust the new coins I’ve bought from Apmex but I should probably have my random years and local purchases tested. What is your recourse if any tests reveal anything? Tears Depends. There are fake Sovereign (British Pound) coins that use the exact same amount of gold etc. - as go...
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 8:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Assorted Gold-related News
Replies: 33
Views: 18659

Re: Assorted Gold-related News

Saw that yesterday and sounds like they didn't even have a night watchman at the museum. More akin to having been 'taken' rather than 'stolen'.
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 8:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: the accelerated permanent portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2476

Re: the accelerated permanent portfolio

that would have had a huge drawdown in 2022.. not a problem for a long term investor but for someone living off a dynamic draw rate keeping these draw downs is highly important one of the problems of creating portfolios by using specific time frames of the past and then molding the portfolio to be ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 28, 2025 8:11 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: the accelerated permanent portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2476

Re: the accelerated permanent portfolio

If you're going to leverage you might just take the STT/LTT barbell, that's comparable to a 10 year bullet, and 'borrow' from that in order to leverage up stock and gold https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3Il43oGRdwBRzCxKaQtWvm 25% UPRO (3x stock), 75% gold, 13.93% CAG...
by seajay
Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Trump Tariff Risks Are Fueling a Chaotic Hunt for Gold in London
Replies: 13
Views: 2953

Re: Trump Tariff Risks Are Fueling a Chaotic Hunt for Gold in London

I'd be extremely pissed off if tariffs and retaliatory tariffs harmed the safe haven / store of value role of gold. LIKE THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY REALLY CREATES VALUE FOR HUMANITY :-( “If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the US at a discount to the US price, a...
by seajay
Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP or GB vs. TIPS ladder
Replies: 23
Views: 8074

Re: PP or GB vs. TIPS ladder

It's interesting to me that with all of the frenzied discussion of TIPS ladders in the financial press and on websites like Bogleheads the past couple of years (siince ~2% real yields became available) there's been zero discussion of how safe withdrawal rates from these ladders compare to risk-pari...
by seajay
Sat Nov 23, 2024 3:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3822
Views: 2119208

Re: The GOLD scream room

The US Treasury might start buying Bitcoin. At the peak price in this cycle :-))))) Oh no doubt! Thought/heard somewhere that they already did own thousands of bitcoins ?? EDIT ... the duck shouted out https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/11/the-us-government-is-one-step-closer-to-ho...
by seajay
Sun Nov 10, 2024 3:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 15585

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

1980 when interest rates were at 17%, versus 30 years later in 2010 when they were at near-0% In the UK the taxman doesn't even bother taxing capital (price) appreciation on Treasury's (Gilts), broadly a zero sum game such that tax collecting would just be a cost. From the start of the Fed (fiat/fr...
by seajay
Mon Oct 07, 2024 11:31 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Assorted Gold-related News
Replies: 33
Views: 18659

Re: Assorted Gold-related News

Not exactly news, but a brief chat I had with ChatGPT today: D: more than one gold coin from around the world contains .1867 oz gold. for example, the French 20-franc gold coin and the swiss 20-franc gold coin. Why is that? What measurement system were they using when those were minted? Chat: The r...
by seajay
Sat Sep 21, 2024 4:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 388
Views: 247595

Re: BTC in the PP

This may seem like a fiat system, but the difference is that it is fair. No one has the exclusive right to print money, thereby enslaving the rest. Printing more money isn't enslaving, just devaluation (inflationary). If you work all day and then get paid half a gold Eagle, fine. If instead you're ...
by seajay
Wed Sep 18, 2024 8:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: GDE
Replies: 2
Views: 3565

Re: GDE

Who is loaning out the $ for all these leveraged ETFs https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=364933 Same as for stocks, Futures/Options (cash settled markets). London Metals Exchange is cash settled, you could walk in with enough to buy up all of the gold in the world and have that order ...
by seajay
Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GDE
Replies: 2
Views: 3565

GDE

GDE is a 90/90/10 stock/gold/cash ETF

28/25/47 GDE/TLT/SHY as a alternative to 25 each SPY/TLT/Gold/SHY ... may be more (gold) tax efficient for some ??

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... iIU8a8cWUh
by seajay
Sun Sep 08, 2024 12:07 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: S&P's New Index-Cap Rules Apply to Funds With $350 Billion
Replies: 5
Views: 4766

Re: S&P's New Index-Cap Rules Apply to Funds With $350 Billion

Also reddit's draggin the PP https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1f7ogj7/diversification/ If a 60 year old uncle had retired in 1980 with $400K, drawing a $20K/year SWR applied to a PP, they'd have been broke by 2020. If instead they'd invested in stocks and died recently they'd be leaving...
by seajay
Sun Sep 01, 2024 6:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are you always taking a bath on at least one asset?
Replies: 27
Views: 13788

Re: Are you always taking a bath on at least one asset?

I guess more generally, how do folks here psychology insulate themselves from the tracking error inherent in these types of portfolios? Interestingly enough, I find it easier with just two items (Gold & VDCO). All the rebalancing between Bonds & Shares is not seen, and my mindset is that Go...
by seajay
Sat Aug 31, 2024 3:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1210
Views: 1244244

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

As Ukraine's in-house nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile developments near ready for testing, one has to wonder where they'll actually test as a declaration of capability. Foresee a year end 2024 for gold being a +25% year or more.