Search found 231 matches

by seajay
Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Time to buy more physical gold
Replies: 12
Views: 373

Re: Time to buy more physical gold

Internationally as one board member might be looking to add gold, another might be looking to reduce. For instance gold in non US dollar countries has risen, in the US its down. There are forums around where members exchange (trade) gold, where often the seller is content with spot price as is the b...
by seajay
Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 37
Views: 503

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

70% of the time you ended with more than 2x what you started with . So you can leave way to much money left not enjoyed without a system of raises . It can be daunting trying to come up with a safe system of raises besides inflation adjusting . So we use bob clyatts 95/5 which is dynamic . Each yea...
by seajay
Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 37
Views: 503

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

As far as what ? . My recommendation is to not mix the portfolio and spending cash . Fine if you don't want to mix PP cash and spending cash, but you posed a scenario where spending cash is drawn down to 0 due to "unexpected big expenses" as you put it, so what should he/she do if that were to happ...
by seajay
Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 37
Views: 503

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

Separate PP 'cash' from regular spending cash account. ATM cash. Some might review/draw from the PP once/year in order to top up their ATM account with a years spending. Others might dilute that down to monthly reviews/movements. I get a free trade each month with my broker so there's no difference ...
by seajay
Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 37
Views: 503

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

With stock dividends added to 'cash' I find there's no need to 'rebalance' other than directing withdrawals from whichever asset value is up the most at the time of the withdrawal. From a UK backtest from the start of 2001, 4% SWR, 2008 year end had the least stock/highest gold weights of 14%/36% re...
by seajay
Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:06 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: John Mauldin on Crypto
Replies: 5
Views: 289

Re: John Mauldin on Crypto

Thanks Kbg PAXG is one of many gold backed crypto's where each token is backed by one fine troy ounce of London Good Delivery gold, stored in Brink’s gold vaults. Anyone who owns PAXG owns the underlying physical gold, held in custody by Paxos Trust Company. Where the blockchain/journal and digital ...
by seajay
Sat Nov 19, 2022 1:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 51
Views: 4130

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

There are extremely good financial and economic reasons not to invest in gold…we here are in a minority and perhaps a delusional one at that. Gold is a lifestyle choice, with its own risks and risks-reduction factors. Consider two, each with $1M wealth where one opts for 50/50 House/TSM and the oth...
by seajay
Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:21 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 468

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

Roughly 50% TLT/50% SHV = 100% IEF because that's the math. Broadly also = 10 year ladder not marked to market. Of the three the ladder has the lowest deviations so in that respect might be considered as the better risk adjusted reward. Somewhat like each years gain being the rolling average of the...
by seajay
Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:30 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 761
Views: 50966

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Surviving Russian conscript account ... We were thrown into landings, they told us to dig in, we dug in as best we could, officers immediately ran away, within hours the battalion of 500 were shredded Ukrainian drone up, spot a battalion of 500 new raw Russian conscripts, 4 Grads actioned to launch...
by seajay
Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Visit to the SWP Vault
Replies: 4
Views: 265

Re: Visit to the SWP Vault

they drive on the wrong side of the road. That's the correct side of the road for around a third of the global population :) Dating back to feudal horseback days where most would prefer a sword in their free right hand, reigns in their left hand, and pass a ongoing attacker on the left side. In con...
by seajay
Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:06 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 761
Views: 50966

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Surviving Russian conscript account ... We were thrown into landings, they told us to dig in, we dug in as best we could, officers immediately ran away, within hours the battalion of 500 were shredded Ukrainian drone up, spot a battalion of 500 new raw Russian conscripts, 4 Grads actioned to launch ...
by seajay
Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1429

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Thanks, Hal. Faber's model is certainly an intriguing option. Do you mean the Marc Faber choice, PDF page 56, document page 63 in https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GAA-Book-1.pdf If so then the one of the most consistent we have reviewed. The portfolio is one of the few that had posit...
by seajay
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1429

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Thanks for the pointers. I've made a note of the two advisors, and Faber's PDF is a good overview for newcomers to the idea of lazy portfolios. I do wonder what Harry Browne would think about the PP in this environment. The US debt seems unpayable at this point, and there appears to be zero inclina...
by seajay
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1429

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

The Portfolio Visualizer link is irrelevant seajay since DSCF was only introduced in September 2021. That’s why I said I’m watching it, not investing in it. But if you read about its approach, its just automating the strategic rebalancing out of frothy markets that Jack Bogle and others have recomm...
by seajay
Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1429

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Getting back to the OP's questions: I highly recommend reading through Cullen Roche's website, starting with this comprehensive overview of money: https://www.pragcap.com/understanding-money/ He does a great job of explaining how fiat currencies work - and, among other things, why gold isn't a part...
by seajay
Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:08 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3525
Views: 1167563

Re: The GOLD scream room

Wow, when did gold creep up into the 1700s On the downside...bonds, stocks and gold are all moving in lock step. As of late we are getting zilch diversification. Had to bring in some shade on the little ray of light I introduced. :-) O0 Yeah, over the past 12 years that I’ve been paying attention i...
by seajay
Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:02 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

Thanks
by seajay
Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

We are retired going on 8 years . We use bob clyatts 95/5 method of withdrawal… it uses actual yearly balances . It is a far better method then what is called the constant dollar method which is the traditional 4% swr .. The traditional method will end up 90% of the time leaving you with to much mo...
by seajay
Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

When all was said and done kitces crunched the failures and analyzed Them . They all had a common denominator. They all failed when the real return average the first 15 years fell below 2% .. Even the best bull markets coming later couldn’t save the period . Actually all the 30 year periods with th...
by seajay
Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

Again from a British perspective and the terminal values after 3.33% 30 year SWR https://i.postimg.cc/sxyHY6Q3/i.png in a small number of cases saw little difference whether you ran a PP or held 50/50 US stock/UK stock (all-stock). In other cases the difference was considerable, with all-stock in on...
by seajay
Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

IIRC Harry did like T-Bills for safety, and seemingly considered the 4x25 PP to be a alternative to that. As such perhaps it should only be expected to leave less of a residual amount at the end of a 30 year SWR period. A British has been more of a inflation bond, tended to return your inflation adj...
by seajay
Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

His premise that a balanced portfolio can only support a draw rate in the 3% range is unfounded …. Mathematically A failure of 4% needs to see less then a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement. There is nothing since 1966 that has done that Overdue then :) 10 years of 0% or lowe...
by seajay
Thu Nov 03, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: GDE from WisdomTree is new to me
Replies: 2
Views: 305

Re: GDE from WisdomTree is new to me

Or PV 72% VGIT (intermediate T's), 28% GDE. 0.085% overall expense ratio for a two-fund version of a PP.
by seajay
Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GDE from WisdomTree is new to me
Replies: 2
Views: 305

GDE from WisdomTree is new to me

90/90 stock/gold, so from a PP perspective 27.5/25/42.5 GDE/TLT/Cash

PV

WidomTree
by seajay
Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Selling Covered Calls on gold
Replies: 2
Views: 319

Re: Selling Covered Calls on gold

Thanks Cortopassi