Search found 280 matches

by seajay
Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold goes up
Replies: 4
Views: 115

Re: Gold goes up

Once upon a time, gold was all you needed. 1817 British Sovereign gold coin, one Pound legal tender value, was used as both a domestic and international currency. A Sovereign gold coin contains 0.235 troy ounces of gold. Alongside bank notes, where the one Pound note included the wording "I promise ...
by seajay
Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Replies: 9
Views: 501

Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Thanks Hal I have previously watched a few of BelangP's youtubes but do find them too lengthy for my liking, so I'm not a follower. BelangP, is basically about 80% dividend equity & 20% physical gold bullion coins. Portfolio insurance! 80 stock value halves to 40, 20 gold value doubles to 40, and y...
by seajay
Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 22
Views: 1378

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

Lowering SWR even a little can make a big difference to overall success/failure outcome. I note that for British investors, a third in a world stock fund, nothing else, broadly offset inflation 1888 to recent. If the other two-thirds were split 50/50 between gold and US dollar (hard currency), then ...
by seajay
Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:41 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: All That Glitters (J.D. Roth 2020 essay)
Replies: 2
Views: 213

Re: All That Glitters (J.D. Roth 2020 essay)

Pre 1930's and gold (silver) was cash/money. However savers would tend to lend that gold (money) to the state or banks (so banks in turn could lend out gold (money) to others). Safer than carrying around large amounts of gold, and you got more gold (money) in return. From the 1930's the US convinced...
by seajay
Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Lower Spreads Versus Greater Divisibility: Which Do You Go For?
Replies: 5
Views: 711

Re: Lower Spreads Versus Greater Divisibility: Which Do You Go For?

Paper gold (low spread gold funds), converted to physical gold after a good year (PP up +8%, physical gold coin spread 4%, convert paper gold to physical gold and count it as a +7% up year. That way it feels like 'other peoples money' covered the spread). For ongoing adjustments (rebalancing), add ...
by seajay
Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 42
Views: 2140

Re: 2022 Returns

Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld . On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3% SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch. This is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with t...
by seajay
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Replies: 9
Views: 501

Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Thanks Hal

I have previously watched a few of BelangP's youtubes but do find them too lengthy for my liking, so I'm not a follower.
by seajay
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3574
Views: 1193709

Re: The GOLD scream room

If gold keeps going up, I’m going to retire and spend my leisure time reading other forums on why gold is a barbarous relic and a poor choice for a portfolio. For centuries gold/silver was money. Investors lent money (gold) to the state in return for interest (more gold in return). Whilst direct co...
by seajay
Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Replies: 9
Views: 501

Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Leverage just tends to broadly scale volatility, not overall broad rewards. That said, I prefer a leveraged PP as for me its more tax efficient. Short treasuries (cash and LTT) i.e. sell them, to add more stock/gold. I get lending to the treasury, buying treasuries, when money was gold. Lend that go...
by seajay
Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 523
Views: 241325

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

https://www.xetra-gold.com/fileadmin/user_upload/Downloads_English/Prospectus/XetraGold2022ProspektEN.pdf page 18 d) No Rights or Beneficial Ownership in the Gold Purchasers of the Notes will only acquire the rights securitised by the Notes. Purchasers of the Notes will not acquire any title to, or ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Interesting comparison (of pp) to 60/40
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Interesting comparison (of pp) to 60/40

Money used to be gold/silver, coins worth their weight. The British Pound was originally (in the 700's) a Saxon pound weight of silver. Nowadays not even copper penny coins are copper any more, but instead are copper plated steel. Prior to 1931 UK, 1933 US and 'investors' were more often content to ...
by seajay
Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:04 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 523
Views: 241325

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I live in the EU and my gold fund is 4GLD. Real gold backed, you can actually request conversion to actual physical gold. Are you really sure about that? I know nada about 4GLD however many that claim to be backed by physical and that permit conversion often have criteria/conditions, such as certai...
by seajay
Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:50 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 1397

Re: Silver

I didn’t realize until today that you can get the silver Britannia with either Queen Elizabeth or King Charles on the obverse . I think the King Charles ones are pre-orders. You keep giving me vocabulary lessons. From the context I thought I'd determined what it meant but I saw I was wrong once I r...
by seajay
Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 1397

Re: Silver

I used to have a crush on Cate Planchet. True story, I had an ex lover that looked just like her, if you drank just two martinis. She also came complete with her own venezuelan female bisexual lover. Made for an exciting summer. Back to silver.....outstanding deal here:https://bullionexchanges.com/...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 523
Views: 241325

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

To any holders of the GB, or anyone really, what is your review of its performance in 2022, and how do you see it going forwards? How did it do vs the PP? PV indicates similar outcomes, GB -11.5% compared to -12% for the PP. In the scale of 20 or 30 years a short term single point to point 365 day ...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 21
Views: 1529

Re: 25 x 4 oder 33 x 3

Can I consider net family wealth as part cash? why not, but then it will probably be above the bands for reballing Could count gold as cash. Cash = money = legal tender and American Eagle one ounce gold coins are USD50 legal tender. Coins used to be worth their weight, made of silver or gold. In th...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
Replies: 28
Views: 2834

Re: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold

If you have $1M in gold, your home is probably a multi million dollar home, or at least over 1M. Unless it's a condo in a major city........ You can easily hide the gold. Get a shovel and go in the backyard at night. It's safer there than any safety deposit box, ETF, foreign vault etc. If the doo d...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 21
Views: 1529

Re: 25 x 4 oder 33 x 3

Can I consider net family wealth as part cash? why not, but then it will probably be above the bands for reballing Could count gold as cash. Cash = money = legal tender and American Eagle one ounce gold coins are USD50 legal tender. Coins used to be worth their weight, made of silver or gold. In th...
by seajay
Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3574
Views: 1193709

Re: The GOLD scream room

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:52 pm
That explosive gold discussion on the Knuckleheads forum finally got shut down.
Looks like it was only temporarily locked to clear out some posts.
by seajay
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:42 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Would you buy an even longer bond?
Replies: 13
Views: 1203

Re: Would you buy an even longer bond?

The time from 1975 to 2022 has not included any serious deflationary period that is were long term would have their chance to shine. While TLT was down 30-34% this year, 50-year UK Gilts we’re down 58%. So assuming there is a deflation and interest rate goes down to 0% again TlT could easily double...
by seajay
Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 2437

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

Harry didn’t live in our world as it exists today. He may have done things very differently. You really want to go by. What makes sense and drawing large amounts of cash to live on will unbalance the assets of the pp even if still at the fringes of the bands . If you rebalance them to get back your...
by seajay
Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:47 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"
Replies: 6
Views: 400

Re: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"

I have a great respect for Anthony Dedans & BelangP's approaches in having just equities and gold, but what if they are wrong? As a UK investor, 50/50 US$ and gold is a global primary reserve fiat currency and non-fiat commodity playoff. Where to store those US$ ... in stocks is reasonable. To me t...
by seajay
Sun Jan 08, 2023 4:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 21
Views: 1529

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

In addition to asset diversification, the PP includes individual assets volatility diversification. Blending high and low volatility assets is part of the PP's engine design. Swapping to slick from regular tires may very well win one sunny day race, but prove to be critical in another rainy day race...
by seajay
Sat Jan 07, 2023 5:30 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"
Replies: 6
Views: 400

Re: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"

Since 2013 Yellen has be in part pegging US$ to gold, in a loose manner rather than direct pegging, and not along, to instead a basket that includes gold, resulting in gold remaining range-bound PV Fear of a alternative and others opting to reduce/drop the dollar in favor of a alternative, in a larg...
by seajay
Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:01 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 948
Views: 61350

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I feel like I should clarify my positions. Putin bad. By our standards, Russia is kind of barbaric at their core. Indeed, Russian's seem willing for coach-roaches to inherit the earth It's costing us billions and billions of dollars, which we don't have. No one cares, and it's my least objection al...