Search found 601 matches
- Sun Jun 22, 2025 7:24 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Those of you who track silver
- Replies: 14
- Views: 7704
Re: Those of you who track silver
There's around 500 ounces of silver in each Tomahawk missile. Given that two nuke states, US and Israel, have confirmed their combined planing and attacking of a non nuke state (Iran) and intentionally hitting nuclear plants, that has the US/Israel in the same category as Russia striking non nuke Uk...
- Thu Jun 19, 2025 7:44 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 3716
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
50/50 short/long dated barbell combines to a central bullet. In both cases you're lending to someone who has a money printing press (and as such has no real need to borrow), and post 2008 the directional push has been more towards bail-in rather than (taxpayer funded) bail-outs. Not good. A distinct...
- Sat Jun 14, 2025 12:58 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3891
Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Many countries are just pacifying Trump, be yes-men in his presence, but are planning their own thing. In 1930 US exports to Europe amounted to 2341 million, by 1932 following reciprocation against US tariffs that had declined to 784 million. Henry Ford called the protectionism/tariffs 'stupidity'. ...
- Thu Jun 12, 2025 11:40 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
- Replies: 5
- Views: 7198
Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Consider Bitcoin as a 5x tech stock type holding, so 5% bitcoin instead of 25% stock, 25% gold (PAXG perhaps, or XAUt), and the rest in dollars (50% USDt) and you can backtest that in PortfolioVisualizer - such as comparing to the PP https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=...
- Wed Jun 04, 2025 9:11 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 124
- Views: 84373
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
PM since the early 1930's (Britain broke away from the gold-peg in 1931, the US followed that in 1933) and 50/50 dollar bills (hard currency) and PM (silver 1930's to mid 1970's, gold thereafter) broadly negated US CPI, and if converted to Pounds also broadly negated British Retail Price Index infla...
- Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:59 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 124
- Views: 84373
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Note that for PM I tend to assume that pre 1914 when gold was money (Sovereign Pound coins) that those with surplus money might have deposited that gold for safe keeping - and some interest. From 1915 (WW1) to 1974 I assume they might have held silver instead of gold i.e. part in reflection that the...
- Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:38 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 124
- Views: 84373
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
For US year end values multiple the British Pound price by the $£ value Year Gold Price £ Silver £ Copper £ $£ 1931 4.25 0.064 0.014 4.54 1932 6.75 0.080 0.016 3.51 1933 7.14 0.083 0.017 4.24 1934 7.87 0.095 0.015 5.04 1935 8.13 0.131 0.017 4.90 1936 8.02 0.091 0.021 4.97 1937 8.05 0.091 0.021 4.94 ...
- Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:32 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: China about to reset gold price
- Replies: 0
- Views: 791
- Mon Jun 02, 2025 10:02 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 7730
Re: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
It could keep being the most popular or something else could come along and start taking its place. That’s what I always say. I don’t mind missing out. For someone that once/year rebalanced to 10/90 bitcoin/physical gold (a somewhat 50/50 stock/gold alternative https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/b...
- Mon Jun 02, 2025 5:04 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: The rise of China - global stocks in the PP
- Replies: 15
- Views: 9873
Re: The rise of China - global stocks in the PP
https://old.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/comments/y4gph6/chinese_stock_market_have_given_no_return_in_the/ Is that not the same model that America is now moving to, variable tariffs (tax on imports), 3.5%/variable tax to take dollars out of the country, variable withholding taxes ... as per one bi...
- Sun Jun 01, 2025 2:30 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: The rise of China - global stocks in the PP
- Replies: 15
- Views: 9873
Re: The rise of China - global stocks in the PP
I think focusing myopically on the China-U.S. duel misses the larger point that everything the current administration is doing makes other countries stronger and incentivizes them to reduce their dependence on both the dollar and business with us. Previously SWIFT had the capacity to sanction (bloc...
- Sat May 31, 2025 8:11 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Texas introduces GAULT legislation
- Replies: 14
- Views: 15523
Re: Texas introduces GAULT legislation
When a state has a higher credit rating than the Fed, and a alt currency that is rated higher than the Dollar (reciprocated barriers due to Trumps irregularities)

will Houston become the US capital city?

will Houston become the US capital city?

- Thu May 29, 2025 11:25 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 7730
Re: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
• The total gold market cap is around $13 trillion. • If Bitcoin captures just 10% of that market, that implies a BTC price of $600,000 to $1M. I suspect that some who swapped out gold for bitcoin may have revised that 'bitcoin is like gold' comparison, as it acts more like a leveraged tech stock h...
- Sat May 24, 2025 5:18 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: The rise of China - global stocks in the PP
- Replies: 15
- Views: 9873
Re: The rise of China - global stocks in the PP
A great new book that's nominally about Apple but really about a broader reshaping of the supply chain and China using Apple's almost unimaginably vast investment in China to their own advantage has come out. … Yeah, I don’t understand how Apple is supposed to move manufacturing to the States in a ...
- Sat May 24, 2025 5:01 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 📊 Current Portfolio Allocation – Almost a Permanent Portfolio (EU-PP-HB ) 💼
- Replies: 6
- Views: 3504
Re: 📊 Current Portfolio Allocation – Almost a Permanent Portfolio (EU-PP-HB ) 💼
From a 'value' perspective and recently long dated bond yields have been relatively low (bonds expensive), generally you want to shorten down when so, expand when yields are high. Gold is relatively high compared to silver recently, gold/silver ratio 100+ S&P500 has outpaced midcaps, aided by a ...
- Sat May 24, 2025 4:38 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The ECB is worried about systemic financial system risk from a squeeze in the gold market
- Replies: 2
- Views: 2438
Re: The ECB is worried about systemic financial system risk from a squeeze in the gold market
That is of course a EU general (global) observation, isn't just a EU/ECB thing, rather a broad/global risk factor observation directed at concentration risk (physical gold largely held by relatively few banks). Yes there's a high ratio of paper to physical gold, something like >100 times more paper ...
- Sat May 24, 2025 4:21 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: "US States Likely to Defy US Downgrade to Keep Top Credit Ratings"
- Replies: 6
- Views: 7678
Re: "US States Likely to Defy US Downgrade to Keep Top Credit Ratings"
Perhaps, but a default of an entity like the United States government has never happened. It might be impossible in theory. Isn't the entire purpose of fiat that it is glide path rather than hitting walls. If necessitated partial defaults - such as in the way of high inflation, nearly as high inter...
- Fri May 16, 2025 2:12 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold is not an investment
- Replies: 46
- Views: 19114
Re: Gold is not an investment
Its over for bonds. The culture has changed and no one cares if the Fed just prints. When others held US Treasury's (China etc.) then the Fed could print/spend on say military might and others (China) had to print and buy more US Treasury's to avoid otherwise having their existing holdings devalued...
- Sat May 10, 2025 7:02 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold is not an investment
- Replies: 46
- Views: 19114
Re: Gold is not an investment
Gold The Dollar has doubled halved since the first post of this thread. The dollar is not an investment. O0 trillions of dollars are traded in currency markets daily . it’s as much an investment as as gold is since gold is the dollars competitor . The average daily trading volume in the forex marke...
- Thu May 08, 2025 6:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: If the EURO 💶 collapses 🤯
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3776
Re: If the EURO 💶 collapses 🤯
From my perspective, and it is just my opinion, I see Gold as capital and the other three PP holdings as investments. I see it as in-hand. A 400oz London Good Delivery bar of gold weighs less than its value held as $100 bills. Weighs similar to 12440 x $100 bills, but would cost around 13000 x $100...
- Thu May 08, 2025 5:52 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: If the EURO 💶 collapses 🤯
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3776
Re: If the EURO 💶 collapses 🤯
You can become relatively richer by losing less than those around you. We invest in a UK/London home (residency), USD in US stocks, gold. Supplemented with a state and occupational pensions that might be considered as a bond ladder that precisely expires the day you die. Home value + imputed rent mi...
- Tue May 06, 2025 4:58 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold is not an investment
- Replies: 46
- Views: 19114
- Wed Apr 30, 2025 10:03 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Forex Diversification
- Replies: 8
- Views: 22227
Re: Forex Diversification
Trump is very binary, sees things as win or lose only and as such is opting to cast out agreements that he opines aren't a sole present day binary US win situations. Any world leaders that simply disregard former international promises/agreements raises the level of distrust. Many for instance see a...
- Wed Apr 30, 2025 9:46 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Forex Diversification
- Replies: 8
- Views: 22227
Re: Forex Diversification
of 25% cash, I am considering keeping 5% in different currencies. I couldn't find any HB thoughts on this, he advocated the dollar because of its reserve status. The Euro is considered to be the 2nd reserve currency, and you can pick up shares of FXE to get Euro exposure. And maybe some FXC for Can...
- Mon Apr 28, 2025 1:52 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Classic ETF Options for Each Asset in the US Permanent Portfolio 📈🧱
- Replies: 8
- Views: 3552
Re: Classic ETF Options for Each Asset in the US Permanent Portfolio 📈🧱
I'm trying hard, in my life, to pull people away from the silent pull of "The market is the S&P500". What about a individual who owns home - as their "equity" exposure, and has a good inflation adjusted pension income - that might be considered as a perfect bond ladder that ...