Everyone should be familiar with the phrase in the subject line. My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? Assume that each asset, price only value, might broadly offset inflation, 0% real, but endure considerable volatility along th...

LEXCX holds a sizeable proportion in Union Pacific, and some Berkshire Hathaway stock. Initial equal weight not rebalanced will tend to end up like that, more average weighting in the stock(s) that did well. Rebalancing has a tendency to reduce the concentration risk, whilst still tending to achieve...

The cap weighted index reflect yesterdays best/worst. Buy the index and you weight more into yesterdays winners. Bogle suggested the ultimate being to buy initially in equal weights and hold that forever, let it find its own cap weighting. but that wasn't something that Vanguard could market. John M...

Doesn’t shine when it should — totally agree, Barrett. Does gold have an obligation to shine when people want/expect it to? It shines when it does. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And a tendency to do so when most needed Annualized rolling 36 month total returns, lowest lows over the last 20 years Feb 28th 2009 Stock -1...

Recently heard from several sources that Chinese citizens are frantically trying to get rid of any physical US dollars they own. Some form of commonly perceived issue must be spreading through their grape vines. Maybe part of a TARA (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) push? I know Biden doesn't go d...

Here are some portfoliovisualizer charts. It seems like these two classes are decently correlated. It shows a correlation of .89. Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.43.34 PM.png And...Log scale turned off Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.49.00 PM.png 10.33 and 13.4 stdev's from your image. 10.33 / 13.4 = 0.77,...

Interested in hearing opinions about SCV vs TSM investing for my children. Seems like over the long term SCV beats TSM by a long way. Wondering if there are any gotcha's with SCV . I'm planning on starting with one automated investment to keep things simple. Two come immediately to mind (although t...

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A PP variant of 33/17/25/25 SCV/gold/cash/LTT has worked well/better than a classic PP since 1934

I prefer to lease to myself. Shift some gold over to the stock side, and instead of 50/50 TSM/gold holding 67/33 SCV/gold. Comparable to the addition of a 5% gold dividend/interest benefit. PP of 33/17/25/25 SCV/gold/cash/LTT Better IMO than selling gold covered calls (that earns interest (time valu...

I would propose that it is the reserve status of the dollar that has allowed the U.S. to maintain its dominance in the international order. The reserve status of the dollar is also the reason why the U.S. has enjoyed its extraordinarily profligate standard of living and the privilege of being able ...

From 1-1-1794 to 12-31-1933 one-third (1/3rd) of the portfolio was in "hard cash" by which you mean either physical paper dollars or physical gold or silver coins, right? In other words, not cash or gold held as deposits, as bonds, or as Treasury bills (the latter of which didn't really exist anywa...

The modern interpretation of the asset allocation that the Talmud advocated millennia ago has a alternative and perhaps more correct interpretation of one third in-hand, one third buried in the ground, one third in commerce. The context within which that was recorded was in regard to safety/security...

We default through inflation and did so in 2020 and/or taxation. Really inflation is just another form of taxation. When one can print/spend money that devalues all other notes in circulation, is as though holders of all the other notes paid a bit of tax on those notes (micro-taxation, that under l...

I tend to use real input data, so no need to make estimations of inflation :) cash/bonds/gold 1i ... inclined to broadly offset inflation (i) stocks 2i, share prices that broadly rise with inflation, along with paying dividends on top and where those dividends might broadly compare to inflation. PP ...

Mom, I have been a PM investor since 2002.  Most of my savings is in PMs.  For most of that time I kept it in coins in my own safekeeping (but not at my home).  I have re-evaluated that now.  Sadly, the vast majority of people no longer have any familiarity or understanding of PMs.  My concern is t...

PV data for 37.5/37.5/25 TSM/T-Bill/Gold compared to the PP i.e. shift bond risk over to the stock side (split LTT 50/50 between TSM/T-Bills), pre 2022 did have the PP as 'better' in the sense of lower/better worst year, but with the addition of 2022 data that difference has aligned https://i.posti...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:34 am

It's my favourite asset.

Some do sleep better when they hold some gold

Asset allocation of thirds each SCV/Gold/T-Bills. Swap the 'bond' (T-Bills) 'risk' over to the stock side, replace with 33/67 SCV/hard $ bills. 44.4 SCV/33.3 Gold/22.2 hard US$ bills compared to thirds each SCV/Gold/T-Bills (nominal) ... https://i.postimg.cc/Y2nmB16Q/a.png and other than a bit more ...

Cash in a near 0% interest rate world was great, could be hard cash/currency with no counter-part risk. Stuffed under the mattress alongside gold. A reversion to positive interest rates times means that cash has to be deposited/invested elsewhere, back to older times of 'rate tarting' around. The pr...

Seajay, thank you for your excellent comments. I found them very helpful, and I share many of your views. You mentioned investing in US land/home, global stocks, and gold. As a followup question, what about US bonds or global bonds? Did the prudent British investor have any of his/her money in bond...

The UK went through loss of it being a major reserve currency after it disconnected gold/money (ended the gold standard) in 1931. Yet long dated treasuries still being included has worked out OK overall. Analysed from a perspective of a new retiree drops two thirds into 'safe', one third into stocks...

Pre 1930's and gold was money, the gold standard. But even when on the gold standard methods were found to periodically disconnect from that. King Henry 8th devalued 'worth their weight' coins by mixing copper into silver coins. A inevitable requirement sooner or later. Imagine a island with a popul...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:13 pm

All time highs

Would have to rise to 2460/ounce to compare to the September 2011 high (1855/ounce price 33% inflation (dollar devaluation) since then)

Is presently comparable to the 1979 highs (in real terms).

The time value (interest rate) used to be based on LIBOR, but that was found to be being manipulated so more recently the Overnight Bank Funding Rate is perhaps the better guide nowadays https://i.postimg.cc/y8bjygSb/LIBOR.png https://i.postimg.cc/1zStTM6n/obfr.png Hold physical gold, short the Futu...

Yup. Sorry, dualstow -- gold spot is still below $2000. You're looking at the gold futures price for June. :) The only reason I don’t report spot is because it’s just easier to catch the futures price in the news without even looking for it. I’ll tag it with “futures” in the future. That's a possib...