Search found 275 matches

by seajay
Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 37
Views: 1645

Re: 2022 Returns

Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld . On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3% SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch. This is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with t...
by seajay
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Replies: 7
Views: 283

Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Thanks Hal

I have previously watched a few of BelangP's youtubes but do find them too lengthy for my liking, so I'm not a follower.
by seajay
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3573
Views: 1191245

Re: The GOLD scream room

If gold keeps going up, I’m going to retire and spend my leisure time reading other forums on why gold is a barbarous relic and a poor choice for a portfolio. For centuries gold/silver was money. Investors lent money (gold) to the state in return for interest (more gold in return). Whilst direct co...
by seajay
Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Replies: 7
Views: 283

Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Leverage just tends to broadly scale volatility, not overall broad rewards. That said, I prefer a leveraged PP as for me its more tax efficient. Short treasuries (cash and LTT) i.e. sell them, to add more stock/gold. I get lending to the treasury, buying treasuries, when money was gold. Lend that go...
by seajay
Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 523
Views: 240749

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

https://www.xetra-gold.com/fileadmin/user_upload/Downloads_English/Prospectus/XetraGold2022ProspektEN.pdf page 18 d) No Rights or Beneficial Ownership in the Gold Purchasers of the Notes will only acquire the rights securitised by the Notes. Purchasers of the Notes will not acquire any title to, or ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Interesting comparison (of pp) to 60/40
Replies: 2
Views: 271

Re: Interesting comparison (of pp) to 60/40

Money used to be gold/silver, coins worth their weight. The British Pound was originally (in the 700's) a Saxon pound weight of silver. Nowadays not even copper penny coins are copper any more, but instead are copper plated steel. Prior to 1931 UK, 1933 US and 'investors' were more often content to ...
by seajay
Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:04 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 523
Views: 240749

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I live in the EU and my gold fund is 4GLD. Real gold backed, you can actually request conversion to actual physical gold. Are you really sure about that? I know nada about 4GLD however many that claim to be backed by physical and that permit conversion often have criteria/conditions, such as certai...
by seajay
Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:50 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 1287

Re: Silver

I didn’t realize until today that you can get the silver Britannia with either Queen Elizabeth or King Charles on the obverse . I think the King Charles ones are pre-orders. You keep giving me vocabulary lessons. From the context I thought I'd determined what it meant but I saw I was wrong once I r...
by seajay
Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 1287

Re: Silver

I used to have a crush on Cate Planchet. True story, I had an ex lover that looked just like her, if you drank just two martinis. She also came complete with her own venezuelan female bisexual lover. Made for an exciting summer. Back to silver.....outstanding deal here:https://bullionexchanges.com/...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 523
Views: 240749

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

To any holders of the GB, or anyone really, what is your review of its performance in 2022, and how do you see it going forwards? How did it do vs the PP? PV indicates similar outcomes, GB -11.5% compared to -12% for the PP. In the scale of 20 or 30 years a short term single point to point 365 day ...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 21
Views: 1400

Re: 25 x 4 oder 33 x 3

Can I consider net family wealth as part cash? why not, but then it will probably be above the bands for reballing Could count gold as cash. Cash = money = legal tender and American Eagle one ounce gold coins are USD50 legal tender. Coins used to be worth their weight, made of silver or gold. In th...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
Replies: 28
Views: 2804

Re: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold

If you have $1M in gold, your home is probably a multi million dollar home, or at least over 1M. Unless it's a condo in a major city........ You can easily hide the gold. Get a shovel and go in the backyard at night. It's safer there than any safety deposit box, ETF, foreign vault etc. If the doo d...
by seajay
Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 21
Views: 1400

Re: 25 x 4 oder 33 x 3

Can I consider net family wealth as part cash? why not, but then it will probably be above the bands for reballing Could count gold as cash. Cash = money = legal tender and American Eagle one ounce gold coins are USD50 legal tender. Coins used to be worth their weight, made of silver or gold. In th...
by seajay
Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3573
Views: 1191245

Re: The GOLD scream room

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:52 pm
That explosive gold discussion on the Knuckleheads forum finally got shut down.
Looks like it was only temporarily locked to clear out some posts.
by seajay
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:42 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Would you buy an even longer bond?
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: Would you buy an even longer bond?

The time from 1975 to 2022 has not included any serious deflationary period that is were long term would have their chance to shine. While TLT was down 30-34% this year, 50-year UK Gilts we’re down 58%. So assuming there is a deflation and interest rate goes down to 0% again TlT could easily double...
by seajay
Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 2313

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

Harry didn’t live in our world as it exists today. He may have done things very differently. You really want to go by. What makes sense and drawing large amounts of cash to live on will unbalance the assets of the pp even if still at the fringes of the bands . If you rebalance them to get back your...
by seajay
Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:47 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"
Replies: 6
Views: 370

Re: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"

I have a great respect for Anthony Dedans & BelangP's approaches in having just equities and gold, but what if they are wrong? As a UK investor, 50/50 US$ and gold is a global primary reserve fiat currency and non-fiat commodity playoff. Where to store those US$ ... in stocks is reasonable. To me t...
by seajay
Sun Jan 08, 2023 4:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 21
Views: 1400

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

In addition to asset diversification, the PP includes individual assets volatility diversification. Blending high and low volatility assets is part of the PP's engine design. Swapping to slick from regular tires may very well win one sunny day race, but prove to be critical in another rainy day race...
by seajay
Sat Jan 07, 2023 5:30 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"
Replies: 6
Views: 370

Re: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"

Since 2013 Yellen has be in part pegging US$ to gold, in a loose manner rather than direct pegging, and not along, to instead a basket that includes gold, resulting in gold remaining range-bound PV Fear of a alternative and others opting to reduce/drop the dollar in favor of a alternative, in a larg...
by seajay
Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:01 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 944
Views: 60563

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I feel like I should clarify my positions. Putin bad. By our standards, Russia is kind of barbaric at their core. Indeed, Russian's seem willing for coach-roaches to inherit the earth It's costing us billions and billions of dollars, which we don't have. No one cares, and it's my least objection al...
by seajay
Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 37
Views: 1645

Re: 2022 Returns

Point to point and much of yearly gains are just down to the valuations/prices at those times. If/when a calendar year start and end date values align with a respective peak and trough then that years outcome will obviously tend to be poor. As might a years trough and peak alignment transition tend ...
by seajay
Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:05 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 944
Views: 60563

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

She's fearful of a nuclear war, in a world ever closer to such from increasing fronts (N Korea, Iran ...etc.). Meh! We're all going to die ... some day. I live in a major city (London) so a near instant death albeit sooner than later - is a better way to go then many other ways. If mankind goes ext...
by seajay
Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:48 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 944
Views: 60563

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Long game (perhaps by 2027) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1511 The European Commission has today [March 2022] proposed an outline of a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030 We must become independent from Russian oil, coal and gas. W...
by seajay
Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Liquidate Some Roth Space to Buy Physical Gold?
Replies: 18
Views: 686

Re: Liquidate Some Roth Space to Buy Physical Gold?

The PP is potentially good for 'tax harvesting' I don't know about US Roth/IRA ... whatever but consider a case of where ... Capital gains on domestic gold coins are tax exempt, no different to if copper prices rose you don't pay capital gains tax on copper coins (not that really applies anymore as ...
by seajay
Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:03 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 944
Views: 60563

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

She's fearful of a nuclear war, in a world ever closer to such from increasing fronts (N Korea, Iran ...etc.). Meh! We're all going to die ... some day. I live in a major city (London) so a near instant death albeit sooner than later - is a better way to go then many other ways. If mankind goes exti...