Search found 464 matches

by seajay
Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Trump Tariff Risks Are Fueling a Chaotic Hunt for Gold in London
Replies: 5
Views: 383

Re: Trump Tariff Risks Are Fueling a Chaotic Hunt for Gold in London

I'd be extremely pissed off if tariffs and retaliatory tariffs harmed the safe haven / store of value role of gold. LIKE THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY REALLY CREATES VALUE FOR HUMANITY :-( “If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the US at a discount to the US price, a...
by seajay
Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP or GB vs. TIPS ladder
Replies: 23
Views: 6044

Re: PP or GB vs. TIPS ladder

It's interesting to me that with all of the frenzied discussion of TIPS ladders in the financial press and on websites like Bogleheads the past couple of years (siince ~2% real yields became available) there's been zero discussion of how safe withdrawal rates from these ladders compare to risk-pari...
by seajay
Sat Nov 23, 2024 3:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3765
Views: 2021167

Re: The GOLD scream room

The US Treasury might start buying Bitcoin. At the peak price in this cycle :-))))) Oh no doubt! Thought/heard somewhere that they already did own thousands of bitcoins ?? EDIT ... the duck shouted out https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/11/the-us-government-is-one-step-closer-to-ho...
by seajay
Sun Nov 10, 2024 3:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 12604

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

1980 when interest rates were at 17%, versus 30 years later in 2010 when they were at near-0% In the UK the taxman doesn't even bother taxing capital (price) appreciation on Treasury's (Gilts), broadly a zero sum game such that tax collecting would just be a cost. From the start of the Fed (fiat/fr...
by seajay
Mon Oct 07, 2024 11:31 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Assorted Gold-related News
Replies: 24
Views: 16137

Re: Assorted Gold-related News

Not exactly news, but a brief chat I had with ChatGPT today: D: more than one gold coin from around the world contains .1867 oz gold. for example, the French 20-franc gold coin and the swiss 20-franc gold coin. Why is that? What measurement system were they using when those were minted? Chat: The r...
by seajay
Sat Sep 21, 2024 4:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 369
Views: 225720

Re: BTC in the PP

This may seem like a fiat system, but the difference is that it is fair. No one has the exclusive right to print money, thereby enslaving the rest. Printing more money isn't enslaving, just devaluation (inflationary). If you work all day and then get paid half a gold Eagle, fine. If instead you're ...
by seajay
Wed Sep 18, 2024 8:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: GDE
Replies: 2
Views: 3141

Re: GDE

Who is loaning out the $ for all these leveraged ETFs https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=364933 Same as for stocks, Futures/Options (cash settled markets). London Metals Exchange is cash settled, you could walk in with enough to buy up all of the gold in the world and have that order ...
by seajay
Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GDE
Replies: 2
Views: 3141

GDE

GDE is a 90/90/10 stock/gold/cash ETF

28/25/47 GDE/TLT/SHY as a alternative to 25 each SPY/TLT/Gold/SHY ... may be more (gold) tax efficient for some ??

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... iIU8a8cWUh
by seajay
Sun Sep 08, 2024 12:07 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: S&P's New Index-Cap Rules Apply to Funds With $350 Billion
Replies: 5
Views: 3989

Re: S&P's New Index-Cap Rules Apply to Funds With $350 Billion

Also reddit's draggin the PP https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1f7ogj7/diversification/ If a 60 year old uncle had retired in 1980 with $400K, drawing a $20K/year SWR applied to a PP, they'd have been broke by 2020. If instead they'd invested in stocks and died recently they'd be leaving...
by seajay
Sun Sep 01, 2024 6:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are you always taking a bath on at least one asset?
Replies: 27
Views: 11101

Re: Are you always taking a bath on at least one asset?

I guess more generally, how do folks here psychology insulate themselves from the tracking error inherent in these types of portfolios? Interestingly enough, I find it easier with just two items (Gold & VDCO). All the rebalancing between Bonds & Shares is not seen, and my mindset is that Go...
by seajay
Sat Aug 31, 2024 3:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1199
Views: 1230032

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

As Ukraine's in-house nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile developments near ready for testing, one has to wonder where they'll actually test as a declaration of capability. Foresee a year end 2024 for gold being a +25% year or more.
by seajay
Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:50 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3765
Views: 2021167

Re: The GOLD scream room

Is it just me or is anyone else scared of gold crashing from 2500? I am having thoughts of abandoning gold at these prices. At recent levels a ounce of gold buys around 85 ounces of silver, a relatively high ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio Swap some gold out for silver a...
by seajay
Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3765
Views: 2021167

Re: The GOLD scream room

Is it just me or is anyone else scared of gold crashing from 2500? I am having thoughts of abandoning gold at these prices. At recent levels a ounce of gold buys around 85 ounces of silver, a relatively high ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio Swap some gold out for silver a...
by seajay
Sat Aug 17, 2024 10:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3765
Views: 2021167

Re: The GOLD scream room

That guess is as good as anyone’s. I still miss the days when it moved completely differently from stocks, though. Just indicative of the dollar debasement, decline relative to everything else. Could persist for yet further years to come as globally dollars are dumped, no longer the 'safe' thing th...
by seajay
Fri Aug 16, 2024 8:13 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3765
Views: 2021167

Re: The GOLD scream room

dualstow wrote: Fri Aug 16, 2024 8:26 am 2487-88 spot price on Fri Aug 16, 930EST

and 2500 per ounce in the afternoon!
A Friday (weekend) safe park spike? Given the risk/possibility of a Israel/Iran weekend kick off.
by seajay
Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:28 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1199
Views: 1230032

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

"Afford it" in which ways? I mean in the sense of allocating troops and weapons to do that. If it doesn’t work out, it will be said that they spread themselves too thin. But, maybe they’re distracting Russian forces for some clever reason. It’s an interesting gamble. Putin has offered a &...
by seajay
Sun Aug 04, 2024 8:40 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1488
Views: 768759

Re: Stock scream room

> here in the UK buying US based mutuals/ETF's is pretty much a no-go why. Wasnt Brexit supposed to fix things like that Dividends and capital gains are both taxed as income. To avoid that requires a KIDD/reporting as per the EU rules (that were rolled into UK law and haven't been changed due to pa...
by seajay
Fri Aug 02, 2024 10:59 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1488
Views: 768759

Re: Stock scream room

Rough day for the market, eh? Going to have to peek at B’heads today. Intel down over 50% year to date, and looking to halve its workforce. Seems to have been a AI sell off today, most such techs down, excepting Apple. https://i.postimg.cc/5yjFzWyV/INTC.png Start of a AI bubble burst? Isn't it Nove...
by seajay
Mon Jul 29, 2024 8:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Items On Sale
Replies: 13
Views: 9556

Re: Gold Items On Sale

I don't like the idea of lending to someone who has a money printing press. That reminds me of something craigr said about TIPS, not bonds in general: “Why buy fire insurance from the arsonist?” As for the rest of your post, whoosh ! O0 I know Harry Browne said something in favor of technical analy...
by seajay
Mon Jul 29, 2024 6:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Items On Sale
Replies: 13
Views: 9556

Re: Gold Items On Sale

Interesting. Imagine if we could actually buy gold with silver, and vice versa, with no friction. I would definitely participate in that. When a price chart has Bollinger Bands added and the price has rattled along the upper (or lower) BB level for a while, the BB range widened, that can lead to a ...
by seajay
Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Items On Sale
Replies: 13
Views: 9556

Re: Gold Items On Sale

seajay, have you ever bought (or sold) gold per the ratio? Yes. Indeed recently, 85+ ounces of silver for a ounce of gold having been the temptation. I may very well switch back when it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy a ounce of gold (20% more gold). Historically high gold-silver ratio has tended ...
by seajay
Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:08 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Items On Sale
Replies: 13
Views: 9556

Re: Gold Items On Sale

due to the price rise I can't even think about it. Recent gold/silver ratio of 84+ and selling a ounce of gold in return for 84 ounces of silver ... and some time later the GSR might have dropped back down to 42, so those 84 ounces of silver buy 2 ounces of gold. https://i.postimg.cc/zDhk8NzD/gsr.p...
by seajay
Fri Jul 19, 2024 1:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3765
Views: 2021167

Re: The GOLD scream room

https://money.com/gold-vs-stocks-better-investment-2024/?encoded_id=MOe4l&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2024-07-15%20%7C%20Daily%20Money%20(ADT%20-%20HSH)&utm_campaign=daily_money Gold vs. Stocks: As Both Hit Record Highs, What's Performing Better for Investors?...
by seajay
Fri Jun 28, 2024 6:18 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I caught the fractional bug
Replies: 10
Views: 7413

Re: I caught the fractional bug

I’ve always stuck to full one-ounce coins, but once upon a time Mark Leavy wrote One time when I bought a couple of ounces, the vendor ran out of 1 ounce coins and gave me multiple 1/2 ounce Eagles ($25 face) instead. These coins are the same size as quarters. That's pretty useful for a thin money ...
by seajay
Sat May 25, 2024 9:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 48
Views: 129899

Re: Gold Substitutes

Out of fiat currencies I would pick the Swiss franc. If "hard" fiat currencies would begin to fall, the franc would surely be the last man standing. The Swiss were the last to leave the gold standard, in 1999. In 2014 they considered a return to the gold standard under the “Save our Swiss...