Search found 195 matches

by seajay
Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:54 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 557
Views: 227568

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

The more and more I reflect on it, the more I'm inclined to say that the GB is the best "default" portfolio out there. GB is a form of 40/60 stock/bond comprised of SCV/TSM for the stock and LTT/TBill/Gold for the 'bonds'. Compared to Wellesley and 40/60 TSM/TBM and since 2003 the GB out-ran the ot...
by seajay
Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 557
Views: 227568

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

For reference, the thing that eventually pushed me over the top on my own SCV vs SCB debate (I settled on SCV) was when I realized just how different the sector makeup is for SCV vs LCB. Large caps are dominated by tech and healthcare, while small cap value is heavily weighted towards financials an...
by seajay
Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 15
Views: 549

Re: 75% stocks and 25% goldo

If we eliminate the worst dates where 4% failed which pretty much if you run from 1970 on that would , then a withdrawal rate for 60/40 would be about 6.50% .so not very stressed as far as outcomes go . The worst retirement years to have retired are 1907 ,1929, 1937 , 1965 and 1966 so starting in 1...
by seajay
Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16080

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I've been doing the HBPP for almost 9 years and I've done decently well with it. It's been a bit frustrating to see inflation soaring lately and my portfolio basically going nowhere or dropping a bit. And it's been especially frustrating to watch Treasuries drop a lot and it seems the stage is set ...
by seajay
Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16080

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It goes out to 40 years https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-SSMXJ5L/4/6ffdbeb6/XL/i-SSMXJ5L-XL.jpg Thanks for sharing - gives me a rough idea for my 50% ish Stock GB ish portfolio (discounting Gold, stocks aren’t all in S&P500, more BarBell in bonds, with not 100% in nominal or government) Makes me...
by seajay
Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3614

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

It's down -19.3% YTD. Its turning out to be the worst year since 1937. There's really no portfolio to hide in this year. https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1573683627375951878/photo/1 Well, damn, no wonder it feels so lousy. I hadn't realized it was historically that bad. And already within ...
by seajay
Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:39 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 42381

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

'Interesting' Russian weapon, create a half mile high radioactive tsunami wave that sweeps across the land to leave a radioactive desert

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irela ... russian-tv
by seajay
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:14 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2164

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Coincidentally, I set up a four-rung, one-year T-Bone ladder at the beginning of July ... Mmm, T-Bone ladder. 🥩 For stability/consistency a four-rung 7 day ladder of T-Bone's, rolling 28 day maturity. Mmm! In contrast steaks in general are far more volatile, sometimes good, sometimes bad. Feed off ...
by seajay
Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2599

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

When on a gold standard partial/total defaults are blatantly obvious. Broadly there's 0% inflation, with periodic clusters of high volatility. With Fiat the state can target progressive/less perceptible defaults, such as 2%/year inflation. Gold will do well when fears of more significant Fiat weakne...
by seajay
Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 42381

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826ed4105b5f32827f577 The claim of a withdrawal to concentrate on Donetsk is similar to the justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv re...
by seajay
Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3614

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...
by seajay
Sat Sep 10, 2022 5:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3614

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Looks like marginally worse than YTD October 2008 PV 3 Month Year To Date 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year Full 3 year 5 year -11.30% -11.11% -10.04% 5.19% 5.91% 5.48% 8.55% 7.50% 6.53% Trailing return and volatility are as of last full calendar month ending October 2008 PV 3 Month Year To Date 1 year 3...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:08 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 42381

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Due to our Cold War perspective, I think it’s difficult for us to think of Russia as an imperial power. Obviously it was in the Czarist days but it was in the Communist days as well…it will be interesting to see if we are watching a “re” continuation of the break up that started in the 90s? Must ad...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 172142

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Thank you for the post! It was great. If one breaks down the PPs performance profile it’s definitely cyclical/exhibits return to mean behavior. I do think we will see some outperformance whenever this down cycle ends. Thanks. Europe will have a hard winter (energy prices are a lot higher than in th...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 42381

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Russia is increasingly being seen as a pariah state, not to be trusted and whilst Europe will endure a cold winter this year, by next year much of resources will have been redirected to be sourced from 'anywhere other than Russia'. The EU will struggle through this winter, but then be much more prep...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3614

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Digging out some data involved limited TLT history availability so I opted to use a monthly continual rolling 10 year ladder (not marked to market) instead of a STT/LTT barbell for pre 2003 data On that measure the recent dip isn't as deep as the deepest dip since 1972, but is getting close. https:/...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3614

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Nominal drawdowns are misleading. Adjusting for inflation and relative to the end of 2020 the PP as of end of August 2022 was down deeper than -20% real (after inflation). And of course deeper if you're also drawing a income. British PP, yearly granularity of drawdowns https://i.postimg.cc/63xSHh35/...
by seajay
Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:03 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 172142

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Leveraging is inclined to scale the volatility, not the rewards. Compounded rewards are a factor of yearly average and standard deviation. Scale up both the average AND the standard deviation and that tends to just still yield the same/similar annualized (CAGR) https://www.financialwebring.org/gummy...
by seajay
Wed Aug 31, 2022 3:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Banned
Replies: 31
Views: 1340

Re: Banned

Noise about noise. The March 2008 drawdown (end October 2008) was deeper in nominal terms -12% Start End Length Recovery By Recovery Time Underwater Period Drawdown Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 months Aug 2009 10 months 1 year 6 months -12.01% PV Feels like the present drawdown might excel that in both depth...
by seajay
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16080

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Exactly. I stick with 100% stocks because the kinds of historical calamities that wiped out stocks typically wiped out bonds and cash as well. It's hard to tell what gold would have done at the time, had it been a freely tradeable commodity without a fixed price, but I suspect it would have gone up...
by seajay
Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Some support for investing in Gold
Replies: 8
Views: 2429

Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Some support for investing in Gold! Is It Time to Invest in Gold? Stock market volatility has given investors gold fever. If you chase the rally, don’t overdo it. July/August 1999 was the more attractive time to buy gold. Dow/Gold ratio was high (stocks expensive/gold cheap), in the UK you could bu...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2230

Re: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds

Cross link that may be of interest viewtopic.php?p=242237#p242237
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 56
Views: 4428

Re: US / International weight

likely differences in actual outcomes might be considered as just noise. That is my big takeaway with this months long exercise of looking at investing and picking an AA. After a point, fine tuning is just blowing kisses into the wind. Investor swapping around their asset allocation tends to on ave...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16080

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. Stock heavy investors are more inclined to looking to have that and also hope to see substantial wealth expansion. They'll cite that in the worst...
by seajay
Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 56
Views: 4428

Re: US / International weight

50/50 is a general good choice/balance. A factor with stocks is that they include bond exposure, stocks on average borrow (issue corporate bonds/whatever) half their book-value, whilst share prices are broadly priced to 2x book value. So each $1 of stock purchase also buys into 25c of short bond exp...