Search found 617 matches

by seajay
Fri Aug 29, 2025 3:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 2724

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

i disagree ,the pp isn’t a good choice for most in their accumulation stage . that is not the time to be in what is considered a capital preservation portfolio not a pedal to the metal growth portfolio for decades of growth absolutely not in my opinion. unless one is making a load of money where th...
by seajay
Tue Aug 26, 2025 3:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3087
Views: 2360283

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

What we're finding is that the caregiving field is dominated by immigrants. Elders are valued more highly in some cultures Is it not more a case of family units, 'mother' staying at home to raise the kids and care for the elderly versus both parents working and paying fortunes in child/elderly care...
by seajay
Sat Aug 23, 2025 6:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 2724

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

When modest/deep downturns occur even those that let others manage their money may capitulate, its a common time for high flows out of more aggressive funds. Those that manage their own initial more aggressive asset allocation, or have managers doing that for them, end up after capitulation with les...
by seajay
Thu Aug 21, 2025 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 2724

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

Bitcoin has become more mainstream recently, which limits backtesting however from 2021, after all of the big-up's as it became more accepted, 25/50/25 bitcoin/stablecoin/gold compared against stocks https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=sP2kvSaDHg695k8P7yq22 With that yo...
by seajay
Thu Aug 21, 2025 12:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 2724

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

If you inspect the yearly gains of each stock in a general stock index and sort those from worst to best then typically the left tail (quarter) is often down, the right tail up, the middle 50% section relatively flat, often not dissimilar to cash. You might emulate that, a form of synthetic stock in...
by seajay
Thu Aug 21, 2025 7:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 2724

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

many abandoned the pp because of it or they are still licking their wounds from long term bonds which are still off 50% from their peak as well as zero returns on cash at a time other assets were doing very well. In purchase power terms, cash and gold had a good year in 2022 when both yielded near ...
by seajay
Sat Aug 16, 2025 4:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 2724

Quiet board - time to buy?

The PP is out of vogue after recent large/fast gains elsewhere - but where the valuations in those alternatives seem high. Perhaps in another year after a major correction the board activity might once again soar. Those that perhaps profit took to start building up PP exposure at recent times might ...
by seajay
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 456
Views: 576510

Re: BTC in the PP

A private key is 32 bytes, what's not to stop random 32 bytes private keys being generated and then applied across the entire blockchain to see if it opens up any addresses, rinse and repeat continually and surely by chance/luck it will periodically strike it lucky ??? Have at it O0 I don’t think y...
by seajay
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars
Replies: 12
Views: 1801

Re: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars

It's an attempt at capital flow control. They don't want organizations settling in gold. They want to push them through SWIFT and the US Dollar. The US has been running with a deficit, borrows from abroad, buys more imports than it exports. Lower interest rates paid by the US than what it receives ...
by seajay
Wed Aug 06, 2025 12:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 456
Views: 576510

Re: BTC in the PP

A private key is 32 bytes, what's not to stop random 32 bytes private keys being generated and then applied across the entire blockchain to see if it opens up any addresses, rinse and repeat continually and surely by chance/luck it will periodically strike it lucky ???
by seajay
Wed Aug 06, 2025 12:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Replies: 9
Views: 92340

Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece

UK imports of US cars plunge 60% in June 2025. Similar likely elsewhere. Trumps ever dynamic changes in tariffs are pretty much making buying from or selling to the US as non viable. Much trust has also been lost. In another year I wouldn't be surprised to see high reciprocal penalties against other...
by seajay
Wed Jul 23, 2025 9:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3087
Views: 2360283

Trump - Self proclaimed dummy?

Trump has recently said that he is "never going to let the dollar slide." The only way that could happen, he added, is "if you have a dummy" as president. The US dollar index - a measure of the US currency against various foreign currencies - has fallen 12.5% since his Inaugurati...
by seajay
Sun Jul 13, 2025 12:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈
Replies: 9
Views: 30635

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈

except the portfolio is very rate sensitive at the end of the day . all assets today also get hit at the same time when risk is , as they say OFF . Today if someone wants reliable seesaw action between assets there are ways like inverse funds , long short funds and managed. futures . in harry’s tim...
by seajay
Thu Jul 10, 2025 7:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 9
Views: 45112

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

CRYPTO USD crypto price qty BTC 10000 48465 0.2063344682 ETH 10000 3850 2.597402597 Perhaps consider selling (profit taking) half of that at recent price levels and putting half of that into something like USDt (stablecoin/cash) and half into GDE. Be better placed to be able to buy more BTC/ETH if/...
by seajay
Thu Jul 10, 2025 7:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 9
Views: 45112

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

BTC has been performing exceptionally well, outperforming the TQQQ and UPRO, which I both have. That's standard form. Leveraged holdings will rise more during Bull phases, dive deeper during Bear phases. Wouldn't be surprised to see another October type crash this year across which Bitcoin/TQQQ/UPR...
by seajay
Wed Jul 09, 2025 1:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Replies: 9
Views: 92340

Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece

others are inclined to redirect trade and with low/no tariffs between themselves. But such transitions away from over-dependence upon the US takes time (years), once that ball is rolling however and as per 1932/Wall Street Crash years the consequences can be dire. I stand corrected and note that in...
by seajay
Sun Jun 22, 2025 7:24 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 17
Views: 127076

Re: Those of you who track silver

There's around 500 ounces of silver in each Tomahawk missile. Given that two nuke states, US and Israel, have confirmed their combined planing and attacking of a non nuke state (Iran) and intentionally hitting nuclear plants, that has the US/Israel in the same category as Russia striking non nuke Uk...
by seajay
Thu Jun 19, 2025 7:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 9530

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

50/50 short/long dated barbell combines to a central bullet. In both cases you're lending to someone who has a money printing press (and as such has no real need to borrow), and post 2008 the directional push has been more towards bail-in rather than (taxpayer funded) bail-outs. Not good. A distinct...
by seajay
Sat Jun 14, 2025 12:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Replies: 9
Views: 92340

Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece

Many countries are just pacifying Trump, be yes-men in his presence, but are planning their own thing. In 1930 US exports to Europe amounted to 2341 million, by 1932 following reciprocation against US tariffs that had declined to 784 million. Henry Ford called the protectionism/tariffs 'stupidity'. ...
by seajay
Thu Jun 12, 2025 11:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 9
Views: 45112

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

Consider Bitcoin as a 5x tech stock type holding, so 5% bitcoin instead of 25% stock, 25% gold (PAXG perhaps, or XAUt), and the rest in dollars (50% USDt) and you can backtest that in PortfolioVisualizer - such as comparing to the PP https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=...
by seajay
Wed Jun 04, 2025 9:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 124
Views: 119887

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

PM since the early 1930's (Britain broke away from the gold-peg in 1931, the US followed that in 1933) and 50/50 dollar bills (hard currency) and PM (silver 1930's to mid 1970's, gold thereafter) broadly negated US CPI, and if converted to Pounds also broadly negated British Retail Price Index infla...
by seajay
Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 124
Views: 119887

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Note that for PM I tend to assume that pre 1914 when gold was money (Sovereign Pound coins) that those with surplus money might have deposited that gold for safe keeping - and some interest. From 1915 (WW1) to 1974 I assume they might have held silver instead of gold i.e. part in reflection that the...
by seajay
Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 124
Views: 119887

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

For US year end values multiple the British Pound price by the $£ value Year Gold Price £ Silver £ Copper £ $£ 1931 4.25 0.064 0.014 4.54 1932 6.75 0.080 0.016 3.51 1933 7.14 0.083 0.017 4.24 1934 7.87 0.095 0.015 5.04 1935 8.13 0.131 0.017 4.90 1936 8.02 0.091 0.021 4.97 1937 8.05 0.091 0.021 4.94 ...
by seajay
Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: China about to reset gold price
Replies: 0
Views: 3402

China about to reset gold price

by seajay
Mon Jun 02, 2025 10:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
Replies: 18
Views: 14668

Re: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?

It could keep being the most popular or something else could come along and start taking its place. That’s what I always say. I don’t mind missing out. For someone that once/year rebalanced to 10/90 bitcoin/physical gold (a somewhat 50/50 stock/gold alternative https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/b...