Search found 692 matches

by seajay
Thu Apr 02, 2026 6:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Follow-up Question: 🤔📈 Thoughts on holding Commodities ONLY in a Variable Portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 2291

Re: Follow-up Question: 🤔📈 Thoughts on holding Commodities ONLY in a Variable Portfolio?

Looking at a 4x25 PP where 10 of the 25 stock allocation were allocated to bitcoin (or a 3x leveraged tech stock), synthetic data from 1932, and the results look impressive. More reward (1.5% annualized more), increased volatility (similar Sharpe Ratio) but where yearly drawdowns were still relative...
by seajay
Thu Mar 26, 2026 3:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Follow-up Question: 🤔📈 Thoughts on holding Commodities ONLY in a Variable Portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 2291

Re: Follow-up Question: 🤔📈 Thoughts on holding Commodities ONLY in a Variable Portfolio?

Hi we can say that BTC from 0-5% is VARIABLE PORTFOLIO VP ::) But where a VP - with no fiat/stocks/Treasury's could yield similar characteristics to a PP. US assets and Treasury's are losing their luster, many in the EU/UK and elsewhere are starting to realise that Russia/China are potentially bett...
by seajay
Tue Mar 24, 2026 10:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Russia's Satan 2 came into service in 2023, they have 50 and each can carry 16 independent targetable nuclear warheads, so one could hit 16 different UK major cities. They have a 11,000 mile range and travel at 15,888 mph. If say the UK was individually wiped out then other nations likely would not ...
by seajay
Mon Mar 23, 2026 7:59 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My 3x Leveraged Variable Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 4695

Re: My 3x Leveraged Variable Portfolio

For backtesting purposes you might create your own historic 3x stock yearly returns figures on the basis of borrowing at the start of each year at T-Bills + 2% (or whatever) assumed cost of borrowing. Have $100, borrow another $200 when T-Bill yields are 4%, so assume 6% cost of borrowing, deduct th...
by seajay
Mon Mar 23, 2026 6:57 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

So Iran’s missiles can reach the UK? Uh oh Edit: some say they can only do it without a warhead. Russia is aiding Iran, so could supply the missiles and warheads. If a unintercepted warhead did approach the UK that could initiate its own response launch as the likes of Russian Soviet 2's split on a...
by seajay
Mon Mar 23, 2026 6:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nowhere to hide?
Replies: 11
Views: 2229

Re: Nowhere to hide?

mathjak107 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2026 1:04 pm cash doesn’t go up nowhere near what investments go down .
?

Silver is down something like 20% over the last week, so cash buys 33% more silver than it did a week ago.
by seajay
Mon Mar 16, 2026 10:42 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

The middle east provides around 25% of daily barrels of oil. Many producers suppress production - have capacity to supply more especially if/when the price is high. If the Strait was closed, such as due to Iran mining the narrow (difficult to defend) Strait then both the US and Russia could do very ...
by seajay
Sat Mar 14, 2026 10:31 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1108601

Re: BTC in the PP

https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-bitcoin-digital-gold-or-fools-gold-the-markets-still-deciding/ Is Bitcoin Digital Gold or Fool’s Gold? The Market’s Still Deciding There are dedicated forms of digital gold, bitcoin is distinctly different and seems to be being priced similar to a 3x leveraged te...
by seajay
Sat Mar 07, 2026 1:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Irony. Russia is supplying intel to Iran to aid targeting US assets. The US has asked Ukraine for help fighting Iranian drones. Trump prefers to lay out a red carpet and a fly-by for Putin but shout at Zelenskyy.
by seajay
Sat Mar 07, 2026 7:31 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I fear one of the few viable options US & Israel do have is to completely obliterate Iran's infrastructure... Needless to repeat my father's advice to never push a possibly dangerous animal in the corner with no chance to escape. It's all or nothing war, I am reall...
by seajay
Fri Mar 06, 2026 12:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My 3x Leveraged Variable Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 4695

Re: My 3x Leveraged Variable Portfolio

That's a lot of debt (borrowing for leverage). Perhaps consider just scaling/leveraging the stock PP element alone

Image
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... mn3tk7O7eV
by seajay
Fri Mar 06, 2026 12:24 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Kill a religious leader during Ramadan and watch the extremist ranks swell to new all time highs, … Trumps spontaneity/irrationality is very dangerous, he's clicking on the doomsday clock to seconds before midnight. Striking during a holiday is really from the Muslim playbook. They’ve been doing it...
by seajay
Fri Mar 06, 2026 10:45 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 52
Views: 18481

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Kill a religious leader during Ramadan and watch the extremist ranks swell to new all time highs, and in addition to de-dollarization promote the development of weapons of mass destruction capable of being deployed within the US - such as biological weapons where even just a small vile less than the...
by seajay
Sun Mar 01, 2026 10:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

Reconverion of bitcoin back to regular fiat currency is and will become increasingly difficult. Here’s a post from a few months ago: We keep saying "Bitcoin fixes this" but the fiat off-ramp is still broken - are we just early or is this a fundamental problem? https://www.reddit.com/r/Bit...
by seajay
Thu Feb 26, 2026 2:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP variant using GDE
Replies: 1
Views: 3137

PP variant using GDE

variants.png
variants.png (33.12 KiB) Viewed 3137 times
by seajay
Thu Feb 26, 2026 9:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

I should have used a comma

Reconversion of bitcoin back to regular fiat currency is and will become increasingly difficult, wallets even with a small amount of tainted bitcoin may be locked.
by seajay
Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

Here is a good new video on Bitcoin from Patrick Boyle: "Bitcoin Is Crashing and Exchanges Freezing Up" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhrzm4CmpEo Reconverion of bitcoin back to regular fiat currency is and will become increasingly difficult. Wallets even with a small amount of tainted b...
by seajay
Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

Which one you use ? Leveraging? USD trading currency choice. 3USL (trades in USD) instead of 3LUS (that trades in GBP) for instance. Rebalancing the FX element once/year rather than daily adjustments is inclined to be better IMO. Hello 👋🏻 Can you please help with your portfolio for European euro cu...
by seajay
Tue Feb 24, 2026 1:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bridgewater All Weather ETF
Replies: 46
Views: 57559

Re: Bridgewater All Weather ETF

yankees60 wrote: Sat Apr 05, 2025 8:25 amCapture.JPG
PRPFX is from a time when the Swiss Franc was gold backed, that it ended on May 1st 2000
by seajay
Fri Feb 20, 2026 12:24 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1403
Views: 1960391

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Yes he does indeed O0 At least he hasn’t started any new forever wars. Let’s revisit that in a couple of weeks. Do you not think its another Venezuela II case, build up the fleet to readiness, then a concurrent decapitation of the IRG as and when that becomes a evident possibility rather than outri...
by seajay
Fri Feb 20, 2026 12:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

frugal wrote: Wed Feb 18, 2026 8:55 am Which one you use ?

Leveraging?
USD trading currency choice. 3USL (trades in USD) instead of 3LUS (that trades in GBP) for instance. Rebalancing the FX element once/year rather than daily adjustments is inclined to be better IMO.
by seajay
Tue Feb 17, 2026 10:02 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1403
Views: 1960391

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

What Russia mines of gold and silver is enough to cover the Russian cost of fighting the Ukraine war. The Swiss don't prohibit Russian gold/silver - just 'advise' investors not to buy it, that once refined into good delivery bars can be sold in London. Putin hasn't had to impose conscription, much o...
by seajay
Tue Feb 17, 2026 9:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

3% is the right number very volatile! only bitcoin no shitcoins which other assets can should we add to VP ? Regards! 8) The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills Expectations : Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation Gold price broadly compares to inflation Hard cash...
by seajay
Tue Feb 17, 2026 5:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 16065

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

3% is the right number very volatile! only bitcoin no shitcoins which other assets can should we add to VP ? Regards! 8) The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills Expectations : Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation Gold price broadly compares to inflation Hard cash...
by seajay
Tue Feb 10, 2026 10:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP symmetry
Replies: 0
Views: 8861

PP symmetry

Data since 1933 for a 4x25 Permanent Portfolio asset allocation where pre 1970 silver was held instead of gold, stock (large cap LC), long term treasury (LTT), T-Bills, PM (precious metal), which might be considered as a portfolio comprised of six 50:50 pairs of assets each pair weighted 16.6%. Meas...