Search found 227 matches

by dockinGA
Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13662

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by dockinGA
Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13662

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

amdda01 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time?
Glad that I also hold a big batch of US dollars, which appears to be the only thing anyone actually wants anymore.
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 331

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

And commodity stocks in particular--why? This has the feel of 2007-08 all over again, when I was deeply into commodity stocks and took a severe beating that ultimately was the "come to Jesus meeting" that brought me to the PP. To this day, I have a number of those stocks (actually mostly ETFs, such...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 331

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what caused the carnage in commodity stocks today? Lordy. I used to belong to a number of trading-related discussion forums where I benefitted greatly from reading the market commentary in "real time." I no longer even remember their names. Are there any good one...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising. Yes, this is the very definition of a tight money recession, it appears. And in addition to HB's prediction, think about whether there is ANYTHING that's done well? C...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Do people still believe in this horse shit? I would have a hard time explaining to anyone why I was still sitting in this awful portfolio. Hopefully this year finally sinks this portfolio and the site forever. Budd, I realize this is a fool's errand, but in the interest of trying to engage you in m...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:39 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: More Money != More Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 795

Re: More Money != More Inflation

If inflation is 8% the Fed should offer us a 6% (at least) savings account. They are supposed to push back on reckless spending. I'm not certain current inflation is still actually that high. Remember that the 8% is backwards looking. July's month over month inflation was flat. August MOM was 0.1%....
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

What were you expecting for a real return? I was hoping to get the historical average PP real return of 4%. Since June 2013, when I started the PP, the CAGR has been around 5%, so there's no way the real return would be close to 4%, right? From this I get a cumulate rate of inflation of 27.1% over ...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:16 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 14
Views: 436

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Thanks dockinGA for your thoughtful comments. One thing it's important to remember is that TIPS were only introduced in the U.S. in 1997, while the first gold ETF, GLD, started in 1994. So doing backtests on Portfolio Visualizer is dubious at best given how little history there is. One of the point...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 14
Views: 436

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Excellent new post from David Enna at Tipswatch: https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/18/this-weeks-10-year-tips-reopening-auction-is-worth-a-serious-look/ Enna is always wisely moderate in his claims and recommendations but reading between the lines here there really aren't any meaningful advantages to n...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1420

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

How much of the "gold market", so to speak, really care about the type of inflation we're currently seeing? The dollar is very strong, and inflation is being driven mostly by stuff that institutional gold holders don't care much about (used cars, homes, and gasoline). I don't see this as a case of o...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

If it's any consolation: https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :( There's still a long way to go in this saga. Everyone needs to be patient. Otherwise, it's a recipe for personal mental anguish of the sort b...
by dockinGA
Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

British (UK) Permanent Portfolio data since start of 1896 to end of 2021, calendar yearly granularity. Hard PP (cash in T-Bills, UK stock index, gold, 20 year treasury ), with the exception of pre 1932 where it was assumed T-Bills were held instead of gold - when gold/money were convertible at a fi...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:26 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 138
Views: 3755

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

In response to the narrative that Trump has been a 'champion of the common man', fighting for the middle class, etc. I think one needs look no further than the ongoing situation with Steve Bannon to realize that Trump's rhetoric is largely for show. Bannon has been accused (and in fact indicted by T...
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Jason, if you don't mind me asking, what was your portfolio withdrawal rate expected to be when you retired?
by dockinGA
Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 138
Views: 3755

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

"He may be an SOB, but he's our SOB!" :) I said a week or so ago, consider the possibility that there a strong and sizeable conservative base that kinda knows but can't elaborate that Bush et al basically sold their way of life down the GOP corporate river. Trump comes along and says all the things...
by dockinGA
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 138
Views: 3755

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

Anyway, this is just a few snippets of what I've seen change, just within my family, since the arrival of Trump. There absolutely are 'bootlickers' out there, maybe even some on this forum. I would call many of my family members 'bootlickers'. But, we need to reach a point where instinctively hatin...
by dockinGA
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...
by dockinGA
Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 138
Views: 3755

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

Kbg wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 12:55 pm
Well there you have it dockinGA...you're part of a family of RINOs. Actually, let's start a new acronym...you are part of a COIN family. Conservative only in name.
I like that, COIN. Love it, actually. And the fact that you 'coined' a new acronym called COIN just makes it even better.
by dockinGA
Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:58 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 138
Views: 3755

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

But joypog, your continued use of the term "bootlicking Trumpists" doesn't inspire much confidence in the sincerity of your requests. I was borrowing the term from ishrugged who utilized the phrase it a couple responses up. I never used it previously. Apologies if it offended you. No, it appears yo...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13662

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The chart was quite clear and showed exacly what it was supposed to . But as usual you are back to ball breaking because YOU DINDT UNDERSTAND IT FROM WHAT YOU SAY . case closed .. I thought we coold be civil to each other but no way … I am done ever replying to anything you ask or post …stay off my...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13662

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I said bonds went up in value , that is not yield …they went up in value which means the total returns are on the right side for that year. I bet everyone here understood what that meant Well except you. My post made the point that you can’t easily predict what bonds are going to do . You are just ...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 04, 2022 1:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13662

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That chart are the years the fed raised more then 1% in a year and only once the last 40 years until now Did bond total returns on 10 years or longer return negative returns that year . So if one was predicting bond returns by fed inceases you would have been quite wrong most of those years. That i...