Search found 237 matches

by dockinGA
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I've done some math quite a while ago, using reasonable expected returns and volatility for the PP, and did a Monte Carlo simulation, and found a swr for longer retirements in the 50-60 year range to be more like 3.3% instead of 4%, with 90% confidence if I remember correctly. From this post and su...
by dockinGA
Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The Monte carlos have to be worse than those actual dates though .. If you compare the Monte Carlo mode in firecalc or fidelity to the actual worst case scenario data in firecalc they are damn close .so close as to really not mean much . Which means you still need to compare to those worst case sce...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Jason , dick in ga will try to find fault in any data I post ..the fact is this data and definition of safe withdrawal rates was conceived by some of the brightest finically minds on the planet .. Just dicking around and calling some arbitrary numbers a safe with drawl rate flies in the face of wha...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Jason, I apologize that your questions and concerns about 4% withdrawals got derailed. I was just attempting to comment that I've also looked at hypothetical safe withdrawal rates for longer than usual retirements and found that it is likely to be lower than 4%. 4% may have worked historically for 6...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Safe withdrawal rates are specific to what it took to get through 1929 ,1937 ,1926 ,1937 ,1965 and 1966 with the trinity study and still have a 90% success rate . Safemax was 1965/1966 Those are the proverbial worst case scenarios safe withdrawal rates are based on Firecalc and shiller data include...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:16 pm
We can discuss draw rates for the pp but not safe withdrawal rates since safe withdrawal apply to specific time frames and it has near impossible to predict what gold would do
What? This makes no sense.
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It goes out to 40 years https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-SSMXJ5L/4/6ffdbeb6/XL/i-SSMXJ5L-XL.jpg Was I not clear in my post that my desire, and the reason why I did calculations of my own, was for hypothetical data based off reasonable assumptions, having nothing to do with a series of historical...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It is easier to monitor in real time since kitces did all the work and numbers crunching for us . All we need to monitor is that we are running 2-3% real returns as we get into the retirement more . Certainly if 8- 10 years in you aren’t then a pay cut from 4% is in order and being proactive Not su...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

We are retired and don’t use a fixed inflation adjusted draw . We use bob clyatts 95/5 . It uses actual balances . Each year we get the higher of 4% of the actual balance or 5% less then we took the prior year if it is a down year . Which ever is higher . Firecalc has a tab for using 95/5 Jason, Di...
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by dockinGA
Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

amdda01 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time?
Glad that I also hold a big batch of US dollars, which appears to be the only thing anyone actually wants anymore.
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 600

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

And commodity stocks in particular--why? This has the feel of 2007-08 all over again, when I was deeply into commodity stocks and took a severe beating that ultimately was the "come to Jesus meeting" that brought me to the PP. To this day, I have a number of those stocks (actually mostly ETFs, such...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 600

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what caused the carnage in commodity stocks today? Lordy. I used to belong to a number of trading-related discussion forums where I benefitted greatly from reading the market commentary in "real time." I no longer even remember their names. Are there any good one...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising. Yes, this is the very definition of a tight money recession, it appears. And in addition to HB's prediction, think about whether there is ANYTHING that's done well? C...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Do people still believe in this horse shit? I would have a hard time explaining to anyone why I was still sitting in this awful portfolio. Hopefully this year finally sinks this portfolio and the site forever. Budd, I realize this is a fool's errand, but in the interest of trying to engage you in m...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:39 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: More Money != More Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 1134

Re: More Money != More Inflation

If inflation is 8% the Fed should offer us a 6% (at least) savings account. They are supposed to push back on reckless spending. I'm not certain current inflation is still actually that high. Remember that the 8% is backwards looking. July's month over month inflation was flat. August MOM was 0.1%....
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

What were you expecting for a real return? I was hoping to get the historical average PP real return of 4%. Since June 2013, when I started the PP, the CAGR has been around 5%, so there's no way the real return would be close to 4%, right? From this I get a cumulate rate of inflation of 27.1% over ...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:16 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Thanks dockinGA for your thoughtful comments. One thing it's important to remember is that TIPS were only introduced in the U.S. in 1997, while the first gold ETF, GLD, started in 1994. So doing backtests on Portfolio Visualizer is dubious at best given how little history there is. One of the point...
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Excellent new post from David Enna at Tipswatch: https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/18/this-weeks-10-year-tips-reopening-auction-is-worth-a-serious-look/ Enna is always wisely moderate in his claims and recommendations but reading between the lines here there really aren't any meaningful advantages to n...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2606

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

How much of the "gold market", so to speak, really care about the type of inflation we're currently seeing? The dollar is very strong, and inflation is being driven mostly by stuff that institutional gold holders don't care much about (used cars, homes, and gasoline). I don't see this as a case of o...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

If it's any consolation: https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :( There's still a long way to go in this saga. Everyone needs to be patient. Otherwise, it's a recipe for personal mental anguish of the sort b...
by dockinGA
Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3636

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

British (UK) Permanent Portfolio data since start of 1896 to end of 2021, calendar yearly granularity. Hard PP (cash in T-Bills, UK stock index, gold, 20 year treasury ), with the exception of pre 1932 where it was assumed T-Bills were held instead of gold - when gold/money were convertible at a fi...