Search found 135 matches

by dockinGA
Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

In fairness, I do not post here often anymore and have only read a fraction of mathjak's posts. Maybe I am wrong and he kicks puppies and purposely farts in the produce section, I can testify regarding the following I have learned about him from reading just about all he has written here: 1) He is ...
by dockinGA
Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I don't have an issue with Mathjaks criticism of the portfolios performance as it's mostly just objective performance numbers at this point. What I don't understand though is his unwillingness to consider that perhaps his investing lifetime encompassed an exceptionally prosperperous time for stocks...
by dockinGA
Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I think Mathjaks analysis is a bit clouded by recency bias as well as analyzing outcomes specific to one country blessed by exceptionally favorable circumstances and demographics. The performance of the stock market in the United States over the course of Mathjaks lifetime has been truly incredible...
by dockinGA
Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I admit it's taking some discipline, but I'm trying to resist passing judgment on the PP's current performance until later this year. The reason - IIRC even in 2008 when equities crashed, it took some time before bonds, then gold rallied. For a short while, all four buckets were down. Is it fair to...
by dockinGA
Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Good comment. I've reached a point where I read the posts from most of these posters (thankfully I've also blocked a few), and just laugh. They'll wash out from the PP, performance chase into something else, and end up with a far worse performance than if they'd just picked a portfolio (pretty much...
by dockinGA
Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures. I hear you. There is always a chance it will snow sometime in the future as well. But wearing snow boots in May from a risk/reward standpoint is just silly. You can't ...
by dockinGA
Sat May 21, 2022 6:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 18
Views: 1974

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

If you had to sell a huge chunk of your portfolio in 08-09, would you have been better off with LTTs That's a loaded question and most likely would depend on how and when one sold off assets. But here's an interesting tidbit from PVisualizer using the monthly returns display There is not a single m...
by dockinGA
Tue May 17, 2022 4:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 18
Views: 1974

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

Is this something that needs to be applied to the "Permanent Portfolio"? It would have saved a lot of grief this year over long term treasuries. I found this other post on bogleheads https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46704 The post mentioned Larry' Swedroe's 2006 book: The Only Guide...
by dockinGA
Sun May 15, 2022 11:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I agree it's never going to be the worst option but I think it's wise to look at how to build a better bunker. Lots of great input Kevin. I appreciate seeing your well thought-out posts. We consider it a decent investment philosophy/allocation that will never be the best performing, or the worst pe...
by dockinGA
Sun May 15, 2022 5:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

These are good points. I know I'm not alone in having discovered the PP midway through the 2008 market crisis, I think through the epic Bogleheads thread started and largely moderated by Craig Rowland and J.K. Larson. At the time I saw my complex, slice-and-dice, global, small-cap and value tilted ...
by dockinGA
Fri May 13, 2022 1:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 34
Views: 1647

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

working in the constructin industry we certainly have both. Supply chains are all gummed up and China's zero-covid policy isn't helping....but there is still plenty of liquidity in the market that wants to get shit built (though I fear how the recent shocks in the stock market might affect how thin...
by dockinGA
Thu May 05, 2022 11:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7408

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

It is what it is.....

I'm really thinking this is the bursting of the Everything Bubble. How things look on the other side of this, who knows? I'm just glad to have bets placed on several different asset classes as opposed to concentrated in one area.
by dockinGA
Tue May 03, 2022 5:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 806

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve ...
by dockinGA
Mon May 02, 2022 5:16 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 485032

Re: Stock scream room

Agreed. Another reason why the pp is no longer for me. I don’t follow. A bear market in stocks makes you want to leave the pp? To pile into stocks while they’re low? or something else - more gold? I think there's a strong likelihood there's something much bigger than your normal bear market in the ...
by dockinGA
Mon May 02, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 485032

Re: Stock scream room

I would imagine there are quite a few people who have been able to participate in the recent run-up in stocks because of the PP. Without that framework, they might have pulled out of stocks years ago. Your comments are going to fall mostly on deaf ears. It seems this forum is now mostly frequented ...
by dockinGA
Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...
by dockinGA
Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...
by dockinGA
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...
by dockinGA
Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

I'm just getting into the world of PP. I've held random indexes but we had gone pretty high in cash in part due to the pandemic and in part due to wanting to buy a house until the market skyrocketed beyond our willingness to purchase. I read Craig's book and really loved the concept so we're going ...
by dockinGA
Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds Do Nothing for PP?
Replies: 5
Views: 609

Re: Bonds Do Nothing for PP?

Hello this is my first post in the forums. I really liked PP when I read the book and entered PP this year but I realized my portfolio is getting destroyed by the bonds allocation. Today I backtested PP with and without bonds (1/3 stocks , 1/3 gold , 1/3 cash). According to the portfoliovisualizer....
by dockinGA
Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4546

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Sticking with Treasuries doesn't have to mean sticking with the LTT/MM barbell. Using ITT's (I use VGIT with ~5+ years of duration) instead of the barbell has historically provided essentially identical returns to the barbell with much less volatility. I'm not sure I agree with you on the much less...
by dockinGA
Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3470

Re: Fed damaging bond market

There definitely is a mental attitude shift going on with me and this put selling. I really am liking not holding anything long term, and the puts I am holding can be rolled if they go against me, for credit, not like buy and hold where you are pretty much limited to watching the ups and downs and ...
by dockinGA
Wed Apr 13, 2022 8:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4546

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

All this negativity makes me think that those of us who are staying the course are about to have our day in the sun.
by dockinGA
Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4546

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Someone mentioned Japan above, but I don't think PP works well in Japan. Poor stock performance and no yields on bonds. The only thing that performed for a Japan PP is gold. According to Portfolio Charts, the PP still held up OK in Japan. 30 year returns even starting in 1990 were 2% above inflatio...
by dockinGA
Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock market vs Fed
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: Stock market vs Fed

And what if you're older? If you are on this board then a couple premises of the PP are that people are horrible at predicting and we do not know the future. I accept both in my investing approach. If you accept the above and are retired or nearing retirement then hopefully you are aware of safe wi...