Search found 245 matches

by dockinGA
Mon Nov 13, 2023 12:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 69127

Re: TLT cracks $90

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:43 am
best of luck with your long term bonds ….conversation is done. why would i think you can have a conversation without insults …

still a dick in ga
Why did I ever think I could have a conversation with a dunce that has an overly simplistic view of the investing world? I don't know.
by dockinGA
Mon Nov 13, 2023 9:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 69127

Re: TLT cracks $90

from a historical standpoint rates are in a normal range …. it is very unlikely long term rates will fall much unless we hit a recession , which seems farther and farther off on the horizon. so far tlt has taken a horrible beat down with not much of a recovery looking up in the nearer term . the cy...
by dockinGA
Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:41 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 69127

Re: TLT cr

agree with jim 100% …rates are not high , they are pretty much historically normal . odds are we are going to see the yield curve normalize out with long term rates going higher and shorter rates going lower normalizing the curve where longer term rates are higher then short term rates . i have bee...
by dockinGA
Tue Apr 11, 2023 4:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 12351

Re: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio

but still kind of flat-ish overall... Isn't that kind of the point of the HBPP? >:D not really , the point is to stay a head of inflation with perhaps a bit of extra growth . flat is not good , especially if retired and taking inflation adjusted draws . it’s the best way to fail Just wanted to comm...
by dockinGA
Tue Apr 11, 2023 4:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx beating 4x4
Replies: 10
Views: 3009

Re: prpfx beating 4x4

there is nothing wrong with the facts i posted about 5 years of returns . This comment gets to the heart of your issue. You won't realize it, but this is the problem. First off, I don't know what you meant by 2017, but it could be 6 years of returns. Again, you're not at all clear what you mean, so...
by dockinGA
Tue Apr 11, 2023 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx beating 4x4
Replies: 10
Views: 3009

Re: prpfx beating 4x4

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Apr 11, 2023 3:30 pm

you just want to be a dick and go you are wrong because the last 90 days it isnt .
I will respond whenever you finally learn to type in something resembling English sentences.
by dockinGA
Tue Apr 11, 2023 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx beating 4x4
Replies: 10
Views: 3009

Re: prpfx beating 4x4

and you are stil a dick IN GA it isn’t irrelevant jerk , why do you think the fund has a subject line here . the fund has had a reputation of being a laggard for decades … yet despite a .81% expense the different holdings vs the simple. ,less costly 4x4 has fallen behind it going on years . as far ...
by dockinGA
Tue Apr 11, 2023 2:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx beating 4x4
Replies: 10
Views: 3009

Re: prpfx beating 4x4

i had to go back to 2017 on portfolio visualizer to find a time frame the 4x4 beat prpfx despite the .81% expense charge Plain vanilla PP has beaten PRPFX YTD, so you obviously didn't look very hard. Regardless, what's the point? PP has beaten PRPFX since Dec 2004. And since Aug 2008. And since Aug...
by dockinGA
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I've done some math quite a while ago, using reasonable expected returns and volatility for the PP, and did a Monte Carlo simulation, and found a swr for longer retirements in the 50-60 year range to be more like 3.3% instead of 4%, with 90% confidence if I remember correctly. From this post and su...
by dockinGA
Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 11849

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The Monte carlos have to be worse than those actual dates though .. If you compare the Monte Carlo mode in firecalc or fidelity to the actual worst case scenario data in firecalc they are damn close .so close as to really not mean much . Which means you still need to compare to those worst case sce...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Jason , dick in ga will try to find fault in any data I post ..the fact is this data and definition of safe withdrawal rates was conceived by some of the brightest finically minds on the planet .. Just dicking around and calling some arbitrary numbers a safe with drawl rate flies in the face of wha...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Jason, I apologize that your questions and concerns about 4% withdrawals got derailed. I was just attempting to comment that I've also looked at hypothetical safe withdrawal rates for longer than usual retirements and found that it is likely to be lower than 4%. 4% may have worked historically for 6...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Safe withdrawal rates are specific to what it took to get through 1929 ,1937 ,1926 ,1937 ,1965 and 1966 with the trinity study and still have a 90% success rate . Safemax was 1965/1966 Those are the proverbial worst case scenarios safe withdrawal rates are based on Firecalc and shiller data include...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:16 pm
We can discuss draw rates for the pp but not safe withdrawal rates since safe withdrawal apply to specific time frames and it has near impossible to predict what gold would do
What? This makes no sense.
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It goes out to 40 years https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-SSMXJ5L/4/6ffdbeb6/XL/i-SSMXJ5L-XL.jpg Was I not clear in my post that my desire, and the reason why I did calculations of my own, was for hypothetical data based off reasonable assumptions, having nothing to do with a series of historical...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It is easier to monitor in real time since kitces did all the work and numbers crunching for us . All we need to monitor is that we are running 2-3% real returns as we get into the retirement more . Certainly if 8- 10 years in you aren’t then a pay cut from 4% is in order and being proactive Not su...
by dockinGA
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

We are retired and don’t use a fixed inflation adjusted draw . We use bob clyatts 95/5 . It uses actual balances . Each year we get the higher of 4% of the actual balance or 5% less then we took the prior year if it is a down year . Which ever is higher . Firecalc has a tab for using 95/5 Jason, Di...
by dockinGA
Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by dockinGA
Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140762

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

amdda01 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time?
Glad that I also hold a big batch of US dollars, which appears to be the only thing anyone actually wants anymore.
by dockinGA
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 2814

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

And commodity stocks in particular--why? This has the feel of 2007-08 all over again, when I was deeply into commodity stocks and took a severe beating that ultimately was the "come to Jesus meeting" that brought me to the PP. To this day, I have a number of those stocks (actually mostly ETFs, such...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 2814

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what caused the carnage in commodity stocks today? Lordy. I used to belong to a number of trading-related discussion forums where I benefitted greatly from reading the market commentary in "real time." I no longer even remember their names. Are there any good one...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33578

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33578

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising. Yes, this is the very definition of a tight money recession, it appears. And in addition to HB's prediction, think about whether there is ANYTHING that's done well? C...
by dockinGA
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33578

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Do people still believe in this horse shit? I would have a hard time explaining to anyone why I was still sitting in this awful portfolio. Hopefully this year finally sinks this portfolio and the site forever. Budd, I realize this is a fool's errand, but in the interest of trying to engage you in m...