Search found 13 matches

by Lorddoskias123
Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1416

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

There are always stories about how "this time it's different". At some point it will be different....for stocks, bonds, LTT's, gold, etc. The question is how much do you want to bet on it (any instance of "it")? Exactly. Thus far it seems obvious that the prevailing economic environment is " tight ...
by Lorddoskias123
Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13658

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Hi Craig, Welcome back! Do you have any new thoughts to your 4 year old statement regarding selling long term treasuries at 1% yield? Have you changed your mind since? I'm likely to just rebalance according to plan. I don't have any better options or ideas right now. Each person is different and I ...
by Lorddoskias123
Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13658

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Although we may not know the future with certainty, the evidence is coming into sharper focus of where we are headed. Consider the following data points... Upside breakout of 40-year declining US tbond rate trend line Us response to Ukrainian situation... Pushing more conflict rather than looking f...
by Lorddoskias123
Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13658

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

As stated before, the bond market is so manipulated and I don't think Harry Browne anticipated QE and now QT and all of that. I really wish I knew what he would recommend today. Some elements of QE had been tried before in the 1930’s so as a student of market history he was possibly aware of it. No...
by Lorddoskias123
Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 215
Views: 13658

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I’m staying the course. I add to the lagged asset every two weeks. Mostly been LTTs right now. No one knows the future. The picture on rates could change very quickly.
by Lorddoskias123
Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid SORR?
Replies: 33
Views: 3601

Re: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid S

Speaking for myself, I think that I would just lump it and be done with it. After all, as Harry used to say, “No one can predict the future.” Easier said than done perhaps. The Canadian specific PP looked ok to me on Portfolio Charts at a glance, but I would have to do more research. That said, more...
by Lorddoskias123
Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 273
Views: 30331

Re: Yay PP!

It’s clear that if someone were curious about the pp, they would have to dig deep to find posts that correspond with the principles in the book(s). This is exactly why (though I frequently recommend the PP to others for consideration) I never suggest this forum. I have no problem with Mathjak, but ...
by Lorddoskias123
Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 5776

Re: 2022 PP predictions

I would guess Gold/Long bonds would be the winners for 2022. Esp, with the FED expected to raise rates. Stocks are likely down. Cash mostly flat.

Time will tell, my guesses are traditionally not great. I think I had Gold winning 2021 and we all know how that turned out.
by Lorddoskias123
Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Failure?
Replies: 34
Views: 4267

Re: Permanent Portfolio Failure?

Did the Permanent Portfolio fail in 2021? I ask this provocative question in order to generate some discussion. According to ETF Replay, the Permanent Portfolio generated a total return of 4.1% in 2021. That falls dramatically short of the S&P 500, which generated a total return of 28.7%; and falls...
by Lorddoskias123
Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Falling yields
Replies: 47
Views: 9440

Re: Falling yields

Man, I don't know. I keep running into business people and businesses that are desperate for workers. And big wage increases. I'll spare you the anecdotes, but they are everywhere. My prediction, inflation soon and bigger than you expect. So will that be stagflation? Seems like a plausible scenario...
by Lorddoskias123
Thu May 13, 2021 3:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 19239

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

With all the talk of inflation, I'm worried that this might be the worst moment to buy LTT. Inflation could trigger an interest increase I read. I actually think that the FED is very likely to let inflation run much more than many investors think without any rate increases. I’m not worried about se...
by Lorddoskias123
Mon May 10, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: They All Look Alike
Replies: 10
Views: 2486

Re: They All Look Alike

The available data on police shootings of unarmed Black men is incomplete; however, existing data indicate that somewhere between 13-27 unarmed black men were killed by police in 2019. So you’re trying to make an argument that 27 unarmed black men gunned down by white supremacists with badges each ...
by Lorddoskias123
Mon May 10, 2021 9:18 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: They All Look Alike
Replies: 10
Views: 2486

Re: They All Look Alike

So a few democratic lawmakers make a few honest mistakes. It seems like when white police mistake a gun in the hands of every black person, that’s overlooked by the right wing main stream media as an “honest mistake” I found this interesting. It makes it easier to understand the differing levels of...