Search found 528 matches

by vincent_c
Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

It's interesting that you mentioned silver at the end. I am in 100% agreement but when I read silver I immediately thought about the reasons why we don't hold silver over gold. Actually, in hindsight, if you purchase silver at a time where it has the same monetary premium as gold with a zero credit ...
by vincent_c
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:35 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

I think its unfair to look at gold at the "physical rock" high level summary and view bitcoin at the "look at the complicated codes and proof of work and ... details" low level details and then conclude bitcoin is "too complicated". ld is thought to have been produced"). Since we dont how how gold ...
by vincent_c
Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Admittedly, a lot of things require planning well in advance and if you're in a position where you are likely to be facing divorce, or a creditor, or the taxman when you begin thinking about these things then your options will be more limited. Just off the top of my head you can have pre-nups, ring ...
by vincent_c
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:12 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

There are other (better) ways to arrange your affairs to protect your assets from creditors and divorce without having to compromise on investment returns. Same thing with tax efficiency.
by vincent_c
Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

The reason why I would like to engage in discussion here is because I believe there is an objective approach. You mentioned that you would prefer a physical painting over the NFT equivalent. That's a fair preference but it doesn't tell me that you have thought through the way to determine how much w...
by vincent_c
Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

You're doing yourself a disservice. There's no need to take a stance on bitcoin bull or bear. You simply need to break it down: To answer the question: Assuming no one can take away your bitcoin, should you have an allocation to it? 1) Is it property? 2) Is it productive property? 3) Should you have...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

But that is exactly what is happening.

Lazy, not silly.
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 248
Views: 104864

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

If you have some time to read more the main topic is leveraging bonds to chill (and improve) risk adjusted returns. Unfortunately the nuggets of the main idea are buried in the minutiae of treasury futures pricing. I did see something about leveraging STTs or ITTs with perhaps what they think is a ...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

The complexities of BC is just unnecessary clutter/risk. This is precisely what I mean. If anything, bitcoin has the minimum necessary complexity to achieve what it does so what I am trying to get you guys to do is to get off your ass and learn about it rather than trying to save yourself from the ...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

If you want people to make that switch, then you're going to need to not ridicule them for being confused about how this-or-that property of gold can be duplicated by perfectly following some 18-step process. I'm not ridiculing anyone, just merely reminding people that they shouldn't jump to conclu...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

I agree that investment/savings is ultimately for the purpose of deferring consumption. However I am more willing to take a probabalistic approach where investing in the PP assets gives you a likelihood of retaining purchasing power sometime in the future without needing to define precisely what inf...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

I think what this shows is that some people are willing to comment on topics and make definitive conclusions about something without actually having done any research into the subject matter. I believe everyone is entitled to their personal opinions but when it comes to facts, it would help to take ...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:37 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

So what exactly is a PP contextual CPI (inflation index)? What are its components, how is it measured, how is it adjusted? Should I even care if I spend 97% of my life living in the US? And indeed, macroeconomics is not microeconomics. This forum has convinced me that the unit of account remains th...
by vincent_c
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 248
Views: 104864

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Just scanned it. It seems to be talking about similar concepts as just a levered PP. The allocations may be different but the assets being suggested are pretty much the same (gold, stocks, LTT). I did notice that they assumed that LTTs were going to be a losing investment in the long run. I personal...
by vincent_c
Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

You're right if we make one key assumption, which is that inflation is defined by the Fed. I think we were just stating that different people can use that word in different contexts to mean different things. Now whether the definition by the Fed is the one that is relevant in the context of how we u...
by vincent_c
Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 29
Views: 1048

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

It’s always been the case. Having less cash just means it’s a levered PP. I don’t see 1-2% interest rates as being fundamentally different to 0% interest as people on here have pointed out that cash is an option on future lower asset prices. If you think cash is trash then it pays to lever. For the ...
by vincent_c
Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 29
Views: 1048

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

I think the author's point is that more and more crypto currencies can be created. There is not a monopoly crypto. That has always been my biggest hang up. You can spin up more and more cryptocurrencies, sure! But its not about the code. The code can be copied and pasted a million times, so that co...
by vincent_c
Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 29
Views: 1048

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Ok so the claim is that paper claims on BTC could exceed BTC. This could be true for anything so Im not sure I understand how this is relevant or important specifically for BTC. Some points about Bitcoin on this "paper bitcoin" matter. Custodians (banks, exchanges, whomever) holding bitcoins can ex...
by vincent_c
Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 29
Views: 1048

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

After all, all crypto is endogenous in the sense that it is literally created from nothing and can be borrowed into existence in exactly the same way that modern banks create synthetic “dollars” from nothing when they make loans. A “fractionally reserved” Bitcoin system with endogenous lending coul...
by vincent_c
Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

Up until now, early adopters could withstand huge drawdowns in BTC and keep hodling or coming back next cycle. The concern I have is that BTC is going mainstream too fast and too hot so that if it doesn't have shallower cycles it may burn the retail crowd so bad that they might never come back. Here...
by vincent_c
Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Which Gold ETF Would You Recommend Now?
Replies: 15
Views: 4056

Re: Which Gold ETF Would You Recommend Now?

GLD because it is the easiest to hedge with options if needed.
by vincent_c
Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

I thought the technical definition of inflation was expansion of the money supply. But that might not be the most useful definition. I think what KBG's point would be is that inflation is the expansion of available for exchange money supply, that which would cause a decrease in the exchange rate of...
by vincent_c
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

Seriously crypto is great for understanding how currencies and inflation works.

If you inflate the supply of a crypto far beyond the demand for that crypto, you'd have to be a fool to think that the price can hold its ground.
by vincent_c
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:35 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin's U.S. ETF begins trading
Replies: 1
Views: 165

Re: Bitcoin's U.S. ETF begins trading

Are there still bitcoin bears?

I know there are people who think BTC is overpriced, but very few now are questioning whether it will stay or go away.
by vincent_c
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

People can debate forever on how to measure inflation. Look, I understand what KBG is saying and arguably it is the most practical way to look at it. But the reason inflation is so confusing is because the same word is used to describe so many different things. Sometimes theoretical, sometimes techn...