Search found 610 matches

by vincent_c
Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:29 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

This is what I see from IBKR
by vincent_c
Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

The only reason you think 3 out of 4 assets are bets on rates is because you're thinking in short term, almost day trading type of bets. Please be more specific when you refer to "rates" because short term rates, long term rates, and real rates can have their own long term trends and you seem to oft...
by vincent_c
Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:24 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Do you have an opinion on whether the PP is agnostic to future economic trends? That's a yes or no answer really and if the answer is yes, then it is a good benchmark. If it were true (which it isn't) that the PP had too much exposure to interest rates, then that would mean your answer is no. I thin...
by vincent_c
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Only suggested it because the VP section doesn’t have any other subsections right now and might look odd unless we also add or foresee to add other topics that could be of interest in the VP section.
by vincent_c
Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

@xan I think this is a good idea, I was going to suggest something similar too. Just like the permanent portfolio funds do not adhere to a strict HBPP, I think it could make sense to have a category under permanent portfolio for bitcoin even though it is technically VP material but it doesn't matter...
by vincent_c
Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?
Replies: 5
Views: 195

Re: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?

1. Buy BTC, collar it. Which options exchange are you looking at for such a good deal? 2. BTC Cash and carry. If you take into account of the spread, then I just calculated the Dec 2022 contract and it's closer to 5% so once you factor in on and off ramp costs and various slippage it just reflects ...
by vincent_c
Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

I think it's interesting to note that TLT is trading near the lows of the week of March 1 2020 and even eyeing the levels at the close of the following week which kind of puts into perspective our current situation.
by vincent_c
Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:30 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

There are probably certain things that you can say that for sure makes one model better than another when trying to come up with an educated guess about the value of something. At some point you get diminishing returns and errors that make any modelling that educated guess but if you're modelling va...
by vincent_c
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:45 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

I suppose it is but I am just trying to be logical about it. A value assessment by one individual is a statement of their opinion. A value assessment by a group of people is the opinion of the group. A value assessment by the market as a whole forms market value. This market’s opinion of value is co...
by vincent_c
Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Fair value can be modelled (basically an educated guess) and then confirmed in hindsight by evaluating whether there was a mean. Fair value is market value less speculative excess. The PP allows you over time to essentially be holding assets at their fair value and reducing the speculative excess ac...
by vincent_c
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Is a speculative premium considered over performance? But if you believe in a long term average growth trend and that there will be reversion to that mean then is it fair to say that anything above that is considered performance or just that if you have exposure above fair value then you're taking o...
by vincent_c
Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?
Replies: 5
Views: 195

Re: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?

Sorry, it was a failed attempt at being sarcastic. But on a serious note, you're taking on protocol risk, various smart contract risks, stablecoin risk, regulatory risk just to name a few so the yield you get is appropriate I think. There are some good deals out there where if you do your due dilige...
by vincent_c
Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Shame on me for prematurely getting excited thinking someone actually wants to engage in a real discussion. It's so frustrating that people on here are so opinionated but do not want to discuss things because they have an opinion and are not interested in anything else. So many times those opinions...
by vincent_c
Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Clarifying Cryptocurrency Developments
Replies: 0
Views: 84

Clarifying Cryptocurrency Developments

Starting this thread specifically for anyone who wants to discuss blockchain and cryptocurrency related technology and development, especially to attempt to curate and debunk some of the misinformation out there and hopefully to identify any of my personal misunderstanding regarding this topic. I do...
by vincent_c
Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Arthur Boe Nansa wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:43 am
If this is directed at me I'm actually shocked.
When you referred to crypto here:
Arthur Boe Nansa wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:43 am
As someone who looks at crypto beyond mindless passive investing, i'll stick to people who don't take easy populist positions.
Did this include bitcoin?
by vincent_c
Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Shame on me for prematurely getting excited thinking someone actually wants to engage in a real discussion. It's so frustrating that people on here are so opinionated but do not want to discuss things because they have an opinion and are not interested in anything else. So many times those opinions ...
by vincent_c
Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3319
Views: 921736

Re: The GOLD scream room

He certainly does.
by vincent_c
Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

I don’t see any similarities between LN and paypal. I’m not sure how LN channels which are trustless and secure by the bitcoin network are considered centralized. There are now LN to BTC, LN to RBTC submarine swaps and once RBTC can be pegged in and out trustlessly via taproot and RSK is 100% merge ...
by vincent_c
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

As someone who looks at crypto beyond mindless passive investing, i'll stick to people who don't take easy populist positions. It also makes you wonder what other ideas she has that she discusses in vague terms. Now you got me interested. What kind of developments in LN and BTC are you focused on?
by vincent_c
Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6286

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Sure, that’s similar to saying BTC has a store of value component and a speculative component. True high growth tech stocks do well with lower long term interest rates and gold and BTC do well with lower long term real rates so there is some correlation there. I don’t think Lyn Alden really thinks t...
by vincent_c
Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Poll
Replies: 9
Views: 229

Re: Poll

I’ve only tried to get them to engage in a discussion but I realized that they don’t have the capacity to engage at a level that I would like to. Rather than admitting it I think they show disinterest as a way to feel good because no matter what they do they will be okay. I just see them as immature...
by vincent_c
Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 201
Views: 12191

Re: BTC in the PP

> All compliant wallets would route transactions via a CBDC. This doesn’t make sense. I send BTC to someone, there is no need for any other currency in the transaction. Although I do agree there might be some "compliant wallet" things for BTC that have nice censorship and surveillance features. But...
by vincent_c
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 201
Views: 12191

Re: BTC in the PP

I dont really understand what this means. As in peer to peer BTC transactions could be outlawed. All CEX pairings to be made with a CBDC, all legal DEX's will have to route their trades through a CBDC with CBDCs being the most liquid pairings for liquidity pools. All compliant wallets would route t...
by vincent_c
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:31 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 201
Views: 12191

Re: BTC in the PP

I think it could be as easily as saying that all approved BTC transactions have to be paired with a CBDC or through a CBDC so then it effectively removes some of those features of BTC that are problematic while keeping its monetary policy.
by vincent_c
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 201
Views: 12191

Re: BTC in the PP

I think the US government can do things that slow Bitcoin adoption or affect the price. But I dont think they can shut it down. Why do you think this? There is an objective answer here, which is that any proof of work or proof of stake system can be bought. A non-economic actor can absolutely come ...