Search found 249 matches

by vincent_c
Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 1307

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

I would suggest liability matching. So any money needed within 1 month is in cash. Less than 1 year in SHV or other T-Bill equivalents. You could have some other guaranteed fixed income laddered between 1-5 years. For me personally, I would probably be comfortable in investing anything I didn't need...
by vincent_c
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:17 am
So your "permanent portfolio" is basically constantly shifting your allocations? You realize why I'm confused, right?
We've all probably been confused by this, but I'm glad these two found each other.
by vincent_c
Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

I'm not sure what you mean....short term government debt for purpose of this portfolio. Is that somehow more complicated? So let's say you're referring to T-bills which, if you own it, then you're owning the government's debt like you say. Is that cash for the purpose of the PP or are Federal Reser...
by vincent_c
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Let's debate: Money
Replies: 37
Views: 1209

Re: Let's debate: Money

Also to tie back into the concept of money. I think I am concluding that money is a store of value but the best money is by design also not the best store of value because it has to take into all those other practical considerations for what commodity functions objectively better as a form of money....
by vincent_c
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

doodle wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:17 pm
It is possible that we see a scenario where cash is the winning asset. This is the Achilles heel of portfolio.
I've been trying to better understand cash so since you mentioned it, what is cash exactly?
by vincent_c
Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:33 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Let's debate: Money
Replies: 37
Views: 1209

Re: Let's debate: Money

If you want to explore your last post...then I think you pick some comparatives and let the data speak for itself. (see the just above) Let's think this through first. CPI is an attempt at measuring how much certain things have gotten more expensive and is one way to measure purchasing power. The i...
by vincent_c
Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:00 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Let's debate: Money
Replies: 37
Views: 1209

Re: Let's debate: Money

Interesting discussion on Money - enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kx2-2mamLM&list=PLALopHfWkFlHl1kbTdAnm0NYFHuXyB5yj&index=6 I guess this provides a reminder that money can have broad and narrow meanings. For the purposes of investing, I don't think it is meaningful to think about things li...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Schemes for maximizing cash returns
Replies: 25
Views: 785

Re: Schemes for maximizing cash returns

This is a good question.

My understanding, and it bears out in practice, is that the borrowing cost of treasuries is the repo rate. For other futures it can have a credit aspect to that borrowing cost.
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Schemes for maximizing cash returns
Replies: 25
Views: 785

Re: Schemes for maximizing cash returns

Thanks v_c as well! So from a practical trading perspective, where is the line in terms of bond maturity length that you would favor an ETF/real bonds over the futures equivalent? Is there a line? Assume for answering this question one had no opinion (PP like) as to which direction interest rates w...
by vincent_c
Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Schemes for maximizing cash returns
Replies: 25
Views: 785

Re: Schemes for maximizing cash returns

Here's a 3 month graph showing UB futures vs TLT
by vincent_c
Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Schemes for maximizing cash returns
Replies: 25
Views: 785

Re: Schemes for maximizing cash returns

I was a bit confused about bond futures when I first started looking at them. Here's what I've come up with. One UB contract is nominal $100,000 face value of bonds with 25 to 30 years remaining on them. The contract also supports 'physical delivery'. So you are getting a random mix of bonds - pres...
by vincent_c
Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

If you're honest to yourself how likely do you think, with a Fed aiming for higher than 2% inflation long term and full employment, that we have seen a peak in break even inflation expectations? If someone told you that after all that's been done and being talked about that 30 year yields only peake...
by vincent_c
Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5944

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Here's an argument for why Bitcoin may not be a complement or alternative to gold. Bitcoin may be too functional in terms of the commercial things that can affect its value to behave like gold in the long term. There is a blockchain called Stacks that uses Proof of Transfer consensus to bring smart ...
by vincent_c
Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:44 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Schemes for maximizing cash returns
Replies: 25
Views: 785

Re: Schemes for maximizing cash returns

vincent recently mentioned that his implementation of the PP is via futures - which basically leaves him a ton of cash sitting idle in his account. He then tries to maximize his return on the cash. (I'm abbreviating here, so please step in if I've cut out too much). Just to remind people some of th...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond scenarios
Replies: 11
Views: 546

Re: Bond scenarios

I’m at 20% rebalancing at 15% but that could mean a lot lower for TLT if stocks don’t go up a lot. Can’t wait to rebalance.
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

I think we tend to just go by what is ..if this years jeep cost 1000 bucks over last years model ,despite improvements we look at that as inflation....when prices fall like computers we tend to not buy what we had but we buy in the same price range and get a better machine. So we tend to do constan...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:28 pm
Just for the record I purchased TLT at 134.18
1/4 of what I previously owned.
Did the crude action have any impact on this decision?
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

It is deflation for that particular good or service. The Mark Leavy Basket of Goods and Services seems to be inflating at about 5 to 10% a year in US Dollar terms over the last 5 years. At a relatively stable level of consumption and quality of life. How do we account for new technology that did no...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

This concept of an expectation of increasing quality of life is an interesting one. So basically if quality of life remained the same of a certain timeframe and prices also stayed the same then we can actually view that as things got more expensive because there was an expectation that quality of li...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

That's really what I'm trying to get at.

Why isn't it deflation if you can get the same thing or better for less money?
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Can someone help me understand something.

If I can buy a brand new iPhone SE today that is actually better than an iPhone 8 for less than when I could buy a brand new iPhone 8.

Is this deflation?

Or is inflation/deflation determined by how much it costs to get the latest iPhone?
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

I don't really think it's a matter of whether they can or they can't but will they or won't they. I can see that from a different perspective someone can say, "well that just means the Fed can't do it" but I think there is a clear distinction between not being able to vs choosing not to because it w...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:43 pm
All I know is the vaccine rollout stalls , Italy and Germany have issues kicking up and bonds , gold and stocks all fall together
Yeah international trade would be one of those practical issues.
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Let's make sure we get this right. The Fed telegraphing anything doesn't mean anything. If the US government actually wanted to raise long yields they could sell more LTTs or they could get the fed to taper on the long end any purchasing programs they had or they could outright sell LTTs as well. If...
by vincent_c
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1240
Views: 72809

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Do you guys realize that it is because we have this difference in opinion regarding whether the Fed has control of yields which is why we have our current situation. The fact is that ultimate control lies with the Fed because they control short term interest rates and the USD supply. Those who say t...