Search found 65 matches

by perfect_simulation
Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:13 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: BOXX
Replies: 7
Views: 2599

Re: BOXX

I really like XHLF, 6 month tbil duration 0.03% ER
by perfect_simulation
Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:52 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Moving up to 4.9%
Replies: 120
Views: 18048

Re: Moving up to 4.9%

I'm not even trying to cherry pick data but it looks like a 100% long bond portfolio outperforms the PP from 1995 to 2021ish. Surprising. Perhaps treasuries underperforming is actually infrequent on longer time scales.

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by perfect_simulation
Fri Jan 10, 2025 3:25 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Moving up to 4.9%
Replies: 120
Views: 18048

Re: Moving up to 4.9%

Any thoughts on tilting the PP to 15% LTT and 35% cash/tbills? If deflation is THAT uncommon, then tilting seems appropriate while keeping the core philosophy intact
by perfect_simulation
Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:38 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Moving up to 4.9%
Replies: 120
Views: 18048

Re: Moving up to 4.9%

The PP forces you to buy the under performing asset so it makes sense to buy LTTs. But....its not easy :)
by perfect_simulation
Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:54 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 48
Views: 130344

Gold Substitutes

Let's acknowledge for moment that Gold is indeed a physical item that can be exchanged for cash. With that in mind, other physical items could serve the same role. HB said in his book he wasn't a fan of real estate because you can't sell just the deck, and a house requires upkeep. But let's brainsto...
by perfect_simulation
Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:47 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Single-bond ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 11642

Re: Single-bond ETFs

in case it wasn't shared, check out ticker "XONE" - 0.3% expense ratio

"One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index which contains U.S. Treasury securities that have an average duration of approximately 1 year."
by perfect_simulation
Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:30 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 17
Views: 10034

Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

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Looks like its working to me
by perfect_simulation
Fri Jun 17, 2022 5:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 60/40 portfolio in shambles
Replies: 1
Views: 1804

60/40 portfolio in shambles

I was just listening to the man again. I don't give a shit what the economy does
by perfect_simulation
Wed May 18, 2022 9:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 9
Views: 5067

Re: coping with a LTT bear market

i love my treasuries. they won't let me down
by perfect_simulation
Wed May 18, 2022 9:30 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3835
Views: 2205038

Re: The GOLD scream room

HB said gold would move during inflation. If we take his word at face value, we can conclude we've only had mild inflation these past 2 years despite what the CPI and other figures indicate.
by perfect_simulation
Fri May 13, 2022 12:43 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 16691

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I'm trying to wrap my head around something. If rising rates are deflationary, when do bonds benefit from it? Because we all just witnessed bonds get slaughtered amidst the prospect of rising rates.
by perfect_simulation
Thu May 12, 2022 9:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 291
Views: 80648

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

At the end of the day HB was a libertarian and I think he recommended USD only because it was the reserve currency. But in his book he also did say to keep some cash outside of the US...swiss francs for example. I wonder if, metaphorically, BTC fits that bill....no pun intended
by perfect_simulation
Thu May 12, 2022 11:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 291
Views: 80648

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I think HB was deeply mistrusting of the government. Enough so that he would have been an advocate for owning some Bitcoin. Perhaps in the VP, if not the PP.
by perfect_simulation
Mon May 09, 2022 8:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 291
Views: 80648

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Harry Browne was confident that cash would only do well during periods of "tight money". Makes sense we are in this environment as the FED is doing exactly that by raising rates and selling assets. But HB also said "tight money" is temporary and eventually inflation/deflation wil...
by perfect_simulation
Fri May 06, 2022 8:41 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 16691

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Bonds are looking cheap relative to stocks:

Today VOO / TLT = 3.36
Last year VOO / TLT = 2.78
2 years ago VOO / TLT = 1.64

You can get over 3 tlts for the price of one VOO!!!
by perfect_simulation
Fri May 06, 2022 12:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 35534

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Mr. Gundlach consistently touting the PP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECe4xLSkvZo&t=16m7s
by perfect_simulation
Tue May 03, 2022 8:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 5714

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

just look at DXY. Of all the currencies, the dollar is what people want right now. Even Bitcoin has been flat while the dollar is rallying
by perfect_simulation
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 216921

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Cortopassi wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:03 pm I still have some TLT that I am writing calls on
I use EDV instead of TLT and I've been tempted multiple times to sell calls on it but I never do. Why? Because I know as soon as a sell a call, some massive event will happen and TLT/EDV will skyrocket and I'll be selling for a pittance ;D
by perfect_simulation
Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:55 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 16
Views: 8502

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

jalanlong wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:28 am Does anyone worry about how uneven the sector coverage is in most US Market ETFs?
Nope, the S&P 500 is self-healing. Failing companies create space for others
by perfect_simulation
Sat Apr 23, 2022 7:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 35534

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Thanks for sharing, yeah a 60/40 this year would be nothing but pain. PP is having some pain but its quite minimal in comparison
by perfect_simulation
Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Replies: 2
Views: 1575

Re: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?

Inflation is always a lagging indicator. HB said gold will move when inflation surpasses 8, 9%. But the caveat is that much of this inflation is supply chain related. Time will reveal the truth. Glad to be in gold regardless.
by perfect_simulation
Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 8396

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

buddtholomew wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:34 pm The PP is truly fantastic in how poorly it performs.
If you try and protect yourself from everything, you protect yourself from nothing.
backwards take. PP is offensive on all fronts, not defensive
by perfect_simulation
Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:29 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 8396

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

Peter Schiff basically calls any one buying long term bonds a moron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfdyuSEaSQo


Still buying tho
by perfect_simulation
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cautionary example of social media postings
Replies: 11
Views: 2998

Re: Cautionary example of social media postings

Not sure if this is allowed but there is facebook group for PP investors.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/291458589731062/
by perfect_simulation
Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 34854

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Now is the BEST time to up a PP. Recent events show that anything can happen at any time. I sleep like a baby. ^-^