Search found 12 matches

by perfect_simulation
Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 2420

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

mukramesh wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:26 pm
It's all relative.
That's the beauty of the PP. People love to hate on cash. In reality they just can't see the dollar bull when everything else is red.
by perfect_simulation
Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: PP Critique

Perfect_simulation, You may want to re-think this. Lots of information in that thread, thanks for sharing. Someone in there confirmed this strategy has been great since 2009, but clearly it didn't work too well in the early 2000s. I'll have to reconsider, but I'm doing so well right now I don't wan...
by perfect_simulation
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 2420

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

mukramesh wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:52 pm

Quick correction here, if all assets move up together, you'd rebalance by selling them and adding to your cash :)
when all assets are going down, are they going down or is it cash going up?
by perfect_simulation
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question: Rebalancing - Dick and Jane Version.
Replies: 12
Views: 830

Re: Question: Rebalancing - Dick and Jane Version.

Just for fun for those interested in more advanced rebalancing techniques. A basic strategy is to rebalance not at all (or very infrequently) when volatility is low and rebalance frequently when volatility is high. For those of you who follow my leveraged posts in the VP, this is basically why I am...
by perfect_simulation
Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: PP Critique

How did you backtest it? You would have to know the top 8 stocks on Jan 1 of every year. Is that information available somewhere? I haven’t had any luck finding that data. I used portfoliovisualizer.com and yes I don't have the SP500 components for each year but I did ok googling like "sp500 compan...
by perfect_simulation
Sat Aug 22, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Momentum ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 627

Re: Momentum ETFs

jalanlong wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:37 pm
Isn't that fund completely dependent on a narrow area of the market? It has 24% of its assets in Apple and Microsoft right now.
I don't know what the weightings are but MGK has more stocks in it than XMMO does
by perfect_simulation
Sat Aug 22, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: PP Critique

jalanlong wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:42 pm
Why top 8 as opposed to top 5 or 10?
The weighting of the stocks in SP500 really drops off after the top 10, so I just think top 8 gives the best oomph. Top 5 would hurt a little too much if one of the stocks under-performed.
by perfect_simulation
Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Momentum ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 627

Re: Momentum ETFs

I have started delving into the new Factor ETFs that are out there. Momentum seems to be an interesting one. For example the S&P LC, MC and SC Momentum ETFs from Invesco (SPMO, XMMO,XSMO) backtested for the past 5 years of their existence very handily beat the basic S&P indexes to which they corres...
by perfect_simulation
Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Growth Stocks vs Total Market
Replies: 14
Views: 1415

Re: Growth Stocks vs Total Market

I recently re-read the books on the PP. And I have a general question about the stock portion. If stocks are in the portfolio for times of prosperity and economic growth, why would you want to own stocks that do not fit that description? Why would you want to own Utilities or Consumer Staples? Woul...
by perfect_simulation
Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: PP Critique

I'm curious, what was your reasoning for using the 8 largest companies instead of SPY or VTI? The short answer is better returns. I did quite a bit of backtesting on portfoliovisualizer.com. I think the strategy is a bit aggressive, but I want that if I'm only having 25% allocated to stocks. I thin...
by perfect_simulation
Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: PP Critique

Looks like TSLA is in the top8 now - that was quick. I'm already up on Walmart so I don't mind switching it out sooner than later. Long term I'm a little bit concerned about EDV but I take the PP as a whole and not actually worried if it starts to dip
by perfect_simulation
Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

PP Critique

I changed to PP after the March 2020 lows due to covid19. I read Harry Browne's book and I am going along with it pretty closely but with some twists. 25% IAU (I don't have a secure location for physical) 25% EDV (longest term treasuries I can find in an etf) 25% SHV (cash / short treasury etf) 25% ...