Search found 17 matches

by Henryinroad
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is it a good idea to buy some Senior Notes (Baby Bond) for Bond interest?
Replies: 1
Views: 1287

Is it a good idea to buy some Senior Notes (Baby Bond) for Bond interest?

It seems there are some merits in baby bond compared to normal corporate bonds and bond ETF, VS normal bond Only a slice of entry cost Each baby bond incurs a smaller purchase cost which makes it easier for diversification than buying corporate bonds Higher interest return Let says the issuer is Eba...
by Henryinroad
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Has anyone invested in ETN before? Better than Nasdaq?
Replies: 0
Views: 1867

Has anyone invested in ETN before? Better than Nasdaq?

G'day guys, so Im planning to buy : FNGS +1x FANG+ ETN Factsheet: https://c5f7b13c-075d-4d98-a100-59dd831bd417.filesusr.com/ugd/c95fca_afbaf86b3e7b475ea63b583287874a54.pdf Issuer: https://www.microsectors.com/fang The reason I am interested is this has highest concentration of FAANG compared to QQQ,...
by Henryinroad
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

People always say the same thing. What I've noticed that although some parts of the PP could be expensive, one part is always inexpensive. That's how it works, non-correlated assets. It's just a guess on which one that is... If I had to pick right now it would be gold as the inexpensive asset. When...
by Henryinroad
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

This is well known strategy and has been around for a long time. Things very similar are the basic strategy for annuities. It works pretty well when markets are moving and will lose money when markets are flat. It works way better when internet rates real and nominal are high. The bond component is...
by Henryinroad
Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

I think the idea that people will eventually look elsewhere if yields get too low is a legit observation. But I'd argue that's exactly what gold is for. So by holding both bonds and gold you prepare yourself for all outcomes. The best portfolios don't fold in adversity -- they thrive in it. I think...
by Henryinroad
Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

The problem is, what happened in the past wont necessarily happen in future. The backtesting result you and I see on the computer screen does not take sth in account: negative interest rate That's only partially true. If you look at real rates rather than nominal rates, the low rates today are not ...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: (Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)
Replies: 14
Views: 5324

Re: My findings: Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)

My guess is you don't quite understand how TIPS work. I would recommend you spend some time learning about them and you will then understand that in most respects they behave like other bonds...there is one difference but I will leave you to discover it. Hi Kbg, followed many of your posts for some...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

It's "tracking error regret" not "fear of tracking error." And if you look at Tyler's recent posts in the "commentary" section of Portfolio Charts about portfolios that have done best during recessions and market crises, as well as those that offer the smoothest ride a...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

What’s surprising to me is you believe Gold is undervalued or at fair value. Gold is the highest performer in the PP YTD. It seems that whether an asset class, like GOLD, is "undervalued or at fair value" or not , is not dependent on its past performance. It's more relevant to the economy...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

Long story short, I just established a portfolio strictly following the allocation of PP. 25% eggs put into each asset basket. Problem is, when I did that, what freaked me out was the recent overvalued price level of TLT and SPY. This just makes me very hesitant to keep going and ignore the market ...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

Re: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

Option 4 :D Listen to his radio show archives and note where he says that overvalued assets can become even more overvalued. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzu55WX1mfZxEGeL7JDFQIQ/videos Note he didnt foresee/ experience negative interest rate when he made those comment about how overvalued asset...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?
Replies: 62
Views: 18515

POLL: How did you overcome the fear of tracking error?

Long story short, I just established a portfolio strictly following the allocation of PP. 25% eggs put into each asset basket. Problem is, when I did that, what freaked me out was the recent overvalued price level of TLT and SPY. This just makes me very hesitant to keep going and ignore the market n...
by Henryinroad
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: (Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)
Replies: 14
Views: 5324

Re: My findings: Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)

Lots of great responses here - and if I were the OP I'd especially take Kbg's to heart, along with carefully reading (or re-reading?) Craig Rowland and J.M. Lawson's book on the PP, which among other things addresses why TIPS are inappropriate for the PP. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1383878...
by Henryinroad
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: (Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)
Replies: 14
Views: 5324

Re: My findings: Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)

The main thing that should be understood is that if you add TIPS you are adding more bonds...full stop. The duration of TIPS is 7.83 while the duration of IEF is 7.64 which is a comparative duration fund consisting of treasury bonds. So if interest rates go up 1% (often due to inflation) your TIPS ...
by Henryinroad
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: (Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)
Replies: 14
Views: 5324

Re: My findings: Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)

my opinion is adds adds even more downside risk as far as the pp's Achilles heel , rising rates ...tips add to much additional rate sensitivity for my taste ... besides here in the US i would never trust putting those in charge of my interest adder who have a vsted interest in showing inflation is ...
by Henryinroad
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: (Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)
Replies: 14
Views: 5324

Re: My findings: Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)

I cannot argue much with your findings. You've done a great job of finding modifications to the HB PP. Most importantly, if this fits your temperament then all the better. Coincidentally, I have been mentally mulling an approach that involves the use of TIPS (referred to as Real Return Bonds/RRBs h...
by Henryinroad
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: (Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)
Replies: 14
Views: 5324

(Update: seeking the truth) Optimized PP Allocation 2020 (-Higher Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Less Drawdown)

UPDATE 15 / AUG / 2020 Just want to start over, and here's my reasoning: Before reading further, pls delve into the specifics of this article: https://www.bridgewater.com/grappling-with-the-new-reality-of-zero-bond-yields-virtually-everywhere My thought: Backtesting is a bit (not entirely) useless:...