Search found 8 matches

by garya505
Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold
Replies: 48
Views: 15888

Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

I would agree that the PP could benefit from some additional diversification, especially since stock evaluations are so high and bond yields are at an all time low. However, I think bitcoin doesn't have much of a track record and I believe that it would be highly speculative to assume anything about...
by garya505
Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Critique
Replies: 13
Views: 4465

Re: PP Critique

I'm curious, what was your reasoning for using the 8 largest companies instead of SPY or VTI?
by garya505
Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161453

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

I'm going to to out on a limb here and make some predictions/suggestions. 1. Interest rates could go up, but I have no idea if they will. 2. Interest rates could go down, but I have no idea if they will. 3. Interest rates could stay near 0 forever, but I have no idea if they will. 4. There is probab...
by garya505
Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161453

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

The great thing about bonds is that they are incredibly predictable and by this I mean throw a scenario at them and you know what is going to happen because the math is all there to tell you what will happen. Without a doubt the best prediction for a bond is it's interest rate . It's not even a pre...
by garya505
Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161453

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Are you suggesting that, because of the convexity in long bonds, my idea to reduce duration of the LTT portion of a PP as rates approach 0 is good, bad, or just doesn't matter? Hi Gary, welcome to the forum. And great questions! Tyler and a few of the other folks have the subtlety of bonds down muc...
by garya505
Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161453

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Gary, read this https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Well, after I read that for the 3rd time I think I got it. I still think at some point (-2%, -3% maybe) there is no more upside to be had, even with convexity, unless you think rates can...
by garya505
Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161453

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Gary, read this https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Well, after I read that for the 3rd time I think I got it. I still think at some point (-2%, -3% maybe) there is no more upside to be had, even with convexity, unless you think rates can...
by garya505
Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161453

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

My first post here! Just had a thought after reading a bunch of posts on low interest rates. Rather than deciding whether to hold cash OR LTT because of the risk, has anyone considered adjusting the duration of the LTT part of their PP based on current interest rates? For example, use a duration of ...