Search found 44 matches

by StinkyToes
Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Guess which asset class has performed best during the past month?
Replies: 10
Views: 4069

Guess which asset class has performed best during the past month?

Gold down 5%
S&P 500 is flat
Cash flat
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) up 6%
by StinkyToes
Fri May 07, 2021 9:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 69
Views: 22263

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

The statistics may not show it yet, but rents are rising aggressively in desirable cities. Where? Not doubting, just asking because the impression I've gotten from the housing market is that the bidding wars are fueled by people leaving cities. Mostly in mid-sized cities and in the suburbs surround...
by StinkyToes
Fri May 07, 2021 3:18 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 69
Views: 22263

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

Gold is up 4.5 percent in the last 30 days. Copper, lumber, food, and other commodity prices are rising. The statistics may not show it yet, but rents are rising aggressively in desirable cities.
by StinkyToes
Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Have you ever stayed in a pleasant, clean, affordable Airbnb in Asia or Europe?
Replies: 0
Views: 1206

Have you ever stayed in a pleasant, clean, affordable Airbnb in Asia or Europe?

If so, would you kindly post a link to it? I'm hoping to travel aimlessly through Asia and Europe for a year or two and am looking for inexpensive-but-nice places to stay. Thank you.
by StinkyToes
Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The ethics and practicality of walking away from low-money down mortgages
Replies: 9
Views: 1630

Re: The ethics and practicality of walking away from low-money down mortgages

As a practical matter for Stinky, if you bought a house you wanted to live in for a price you found reasonable, why wouldn't you just keep paying your mortgage in order to live there? And forget about the market value? Or was your idea to hop from one short-term living arraingment to another, and s...
by StinkyToes
Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The ethics and practicality of walking away from low-money down mortgages
Replies: 9
Views: 1630

The ethics and practicality of walking away from low-money down mortgages

I have no debt and live responsibly. I may be purchasing a home in the next 2 years, though I am nervous about doing so because I believe that housing prices are approaching a peak. Although I can pay for a home with cash, the idea of taking out a no- or low-money down mortgage interests me. The lar...
by StinkyToes
Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:59 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock market is looking very bubbly, but it doesn't matter.
Replies: 22
Views: 6426

Stock market is looking very bubbly, but it doesn't matter.

NASDAQ has roughly doubled since March 20, 2020. Shiller PE is 35 -- among the highest in history. Gamestop is up 7-fold in two weeks. The signs of speculative excess are everywhere. And so I think we are due for a big correction, probably within the next few weeks. Of course those of us with a PP a...
by StinkyToes
Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: " Trump has a second, viable stealthy road to victory."
Replies: 89
Views: 15699

" Trump has a second, viable stealthy road to victory."

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/donald-trumps-stealthy-road-victory-172235 Without disagreeing with the conventional wisdom about the final tally when all the legal votes are counted, I believe the current consensus is missing the fact that Trump has a second, viable stealthy road to victory .....
by StinkyToes
Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold
Replies: 48
Views: 15890

Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

https://winklevosscapital.com/the-case-for-500k-bitcoin/ The PP was devised before Bitcoin was a thing. Is it time for PP to adapt? Would a 20/20/20/20/20 portfolio split between stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and Bitcoin be superior to the current version? What about a 24/24/24/24/4 portfolio? Or maybe...
by StinkyToes
Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Racial IQ Gap, Nature versus Nurture
Replies: 35
Views: 6264

Re: Racial IQ Gap, Nature versus Nurture

And yet every winner of the Olympic 100m dash and marathon has been from Africa (different parts of the continent for different race lengths) for the last 50 some years. This is false. Men's marathon winners during the last 50 years include Stefano Baldini of Italy, Hwang Young-cho of South Korea, ...
by StinkyToes
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:52 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?
Replies: 16
Views: 4790

Re: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?

Okay, these ideas may or may not be legal. And I expect any attorney would counsel against them. 1 - Just move it all to gold and tell your kids where it is stored. Or lose it in the river and tell your kids where to go fishing. 2 - Move all of your assets into a holding company. Make the kids shar...
by StinkyToes
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?
Replies: 16
Views: 4790

Re: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?

Well, your requirement that it be legal sure eliminates a lot of the fun ideas! Since my son lives in Portland, I wondered if I could just marry him. Then he could have my estate when I die. Your post made me snort coffee up the nose! Stinky, I notice this is the second time in the last few days th...
by StinkyToes
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?
Replies: 16
Views: 4790

Re: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?

You can give money to your kids, but it doesn't have to be spread over 30 years, and shouldn't be if you're worried about that $10+MM exemption going away. The IRS has ruled that if you give away money during a time of a high exemption that later goes down, then they won't retroactively go after it...
by StinkyToes
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?
Replies: 16
Views: 4790

Can we talk about legal ways to avoid estate taxes?

The current estate tax exclusion is $11.58 million per individual. Let's just say for the sake of argument that the exclusion will eventually be lowered and the estate tax rate will eventually be raised. What are the best, low-cost ways to legally minimize exposure to this tax? One simple thing peop...
by StinkyToes
Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 20769

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

Study finds reparations plan could cost $6.2 quadrillion
https://news.yahoo.com/study-finds-repa ... 37453.html

I believe that's $6,200,000,000,000,000, or $151 million per descendant.
by StinkyToes
Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 20769

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

I think we will have plenty of warning if a wealth tax that could capture middle to upper middle class US citizens becomes a real danger. They'll start with ultra-high wealth individuals, then they will gradually ratchet down the threshold, just as happened with the AMT. I imagine that a low thresh...
by StinkyToes
Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 20769

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

I think we will have plenty of warning if a wealth tax that could capture middle to upper middle class US citizens becomes a real danger. They'll start with ultra-high wealth individuals, then they will gradually ratchet down the threshold, just as happened with the AMT. I imagine that a low thresh...
by StinkyToes
Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Second passport?
Replies: 27
Views: 10807

Re: Second passport?

I've been looking into all this with help from one of the Forum members. If you qualify by descent, that is a wonderful option. If not, here are some of the countries that have come up in my readings: Argentina: Retiree visa is pretty easy to get. After just 2 years of residency in Argentina (physic...
by StinkyToes
Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Second passport?
Replies: 27
Views: 10807

Second passport?

I believe the political situation in my home country (USA) will become increasingly bad in the coming years (more violence, less freedom, less opportunity, higher taxes, increasingly dysfunctional government, etc). I am interested in obtaining a second passport just in case the fit really hits the s...
by StinkyToes
Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 20769

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:36 am
Always maintain physical exposure to lead and brass.
i've got this covered.
by StinkyToes
Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 20769

The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

I am a relatively new member of this Forum. I looked but could not find the rules on political posts.* I hope this post falls within the rules. If not, I hope a one-time exception can be made given the seriousness of the subject matter and because (I assume) many of us are asking ourselves this ques...
by StinkyToes
Tue May 12, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29695

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

The latest consumer price index update is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm What I got right: - food at home prices jumped in April, rising 2.6% month over month. - medical care services prices are still rising, up 0.5% month over month. - shelter prices did not fall (flat month over...
by StinkyToes
Thu May 07, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29695

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

It's not just San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Someone in my family bought a house in Maryland last week. She said 32 potential buyers signed up for private showings of the house on the first weekend. Out of those, 13 of them submitted offers. This was during a lockdown. She said the large number ...
by StinkyToes
Wed May 06, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29695

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

San Francisco Bay Area home prices still rising: https://mortgage.originalandsafe.com/even-pandemic-cant-slow-bay-area-home-prices/ "Median sale prices in the region increased 1.5%, led by year-over-year gains in the counties of Alameda (5.1%), San Mateo (6.5%) and Santa Clara (4.8%), according to a...
by StinkyToes
Wed May 06, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29695

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

Has anyone noticed that oil prices are rebounding? "U.S. oil prices jumped nearly 20% on Tuesday, with the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate crude reaching $24.56 on its fifth straight day of gains." https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/05/05/why-are-oil-prices-rebounding/#6...