Search found 15 matches

by kwg2005
Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Heretics. https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ I get bond convexity. If you buy your bonds at 2.5 and the current yields drop to 1.5, your price per bond rises. It helps offset the losses of the other assets. Of course as you get closer to...
by kwg2005
Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: VIPSX and iBonds instead of LTT’s and TBills
Replies: 2
Views: 1063

Re: VIPSX and iBonds instead of LTT’s and TBills

There’s an intelligent poster on Bogleheads (willthrill81) who unlike many others on that forum understands and respects the PP. He proposed this substitution in the GB. Of course I’m familiar with the arguments against TIPS made in the PP book and elsewhere but they’re largely based on their anoma...
by kwg2005
Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Based on the insane inflation rate being reported, it appears to me that it is official US government policy to rapidly destroy the purchasing power of the US dollar. This makes holding 50% of my portfolio in treasuries (25 tbond, 25 tbill) totally untenable and irresponsible for good stewardship o...
by kwg2005
Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It appears that there were more investors than panicked old Budd who questioned the validity of the PP moving forward. Where were you when I was being attacked for my perspective? Were you too afraid to voice the same opinion as mine? Now people are either selling some or all of their LTT’s down 15...
by kwg2005
Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Although we may not know the future with certainty, the evidence is coming into sharper focus of where we are headed. Consider the following data points... Upside breakout of 40-year declining US tbond rate trend line Us response to Ukrainian situation... Pushing more conflict rather than looking f...
by kwg2005
Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Today I sold off some of my LTT position. I will probably regret doing it. I just don't see keep putting good money after bad. Ha, well isn’t that phrase more for poor quality stocks and bonds? Treasurys are still quality even if the real return horizon doesn’t look so good right now. I am thinking...
by kwg2005
Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I’m staying the course. I add to the lagged asset every two weeks. Mostly been LTTs right now. No one knows the future. The picture on rates could change very quickly. Today I sold off some of my LTT position. I will probably regret doing it. I just don't see keep putting good money after bad. I've...
by kwg2005
Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Maybe a good thought experiment to to think what would happen if 30 year bonds go to 5 percent. Can the government afford to pay that interest rate? They might have to go back to QE which will bring the yields back down. I wish part of the portfolio would jump up to offset the falling bonds. In ord...
by kwg2005
Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Just read "The psychology of money" by Morgan Housel for second time. One can get fooled by the fact its short and quite easy-going read, though I cannot stop recommending it due to being kind of generous in investing wisdom. " There are few financial variables more correlated to performance than c...
by kwg2005
Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

> default in the US in the next 10-20 years. I don't think the US government can run crazy deficits forever, and increasing taxes isn't popular Answer to both is inflation. Then subsidize gas and food. If they still riot over housing, climate/covid lockdowns. But 30 year is at 2.76%. Still some roo...
by kwg2005
Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I added to my 30 year treasuries about 2 months ago. I think I’m at about 17ish percent (in a GB). I may add a bit more soon. They do make me very nervous though, with Biden taking every step possible for Countries to distrust the dollar with their reserves. I am staring to worry about an actual de...
by kwg2005
Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140557

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I've been doing the HBPP for almost 9 years and I've done decently well with it. It's been a bit frustrating to see inflation soaring lately and my portfolio basically going nowhere or dropping a bit. And it's been especially frustrating to watch Treasuries drop a lot and it seems the stage is set ...
by kwg2005
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT in an inflationary environment
Replies: 9
Views: 4490

Re: LTT in an inflationary environment

ochotona wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:57 am
IMG_20200328_113856.jpg
So what's the forecast here? It looks like Stocks are high and bond prices are high (yields low).
by kwg2005
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sold out
Replies: 14
Views: 4740

Re: Sold out

I notice people calling gold ETFs paper gold. I always thought these gold ETFs store real gold in a vault. My thought on the shortage of gold coins is that maybe mom and pops are going to their coin dealer to buy gold due to the massive money printing that's happening, but the coin stores didn't hav...
by kwg2005
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT in an inflationary environment
Replies: 9
Views: 4490

Re: LTT in an inflationary environment

I am no economist but here's my thinking. In a honest world with sound money, if the government were to bail everyone out and issue treasuries to pay for it, the interest rate would need to rise to entice buyers to buy the bonds. Supply of bonds would rise so the interest rate would have to go up to...