Search found 92 matches

by welderwannabe
Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:41 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Single-bond ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 4593

Re: Single-bond ETFs

XHLF should fix the duration issue. They keep a portfolio of treasuries that targets a 6 month duration. And for only .03 I have read several articles that say on the run treasuries (or on the run treasury ETFs like TBIL) underperform a portfolio of treasuries targeting the same duration: https://f...
by welderwannabe
Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 15
Views: 1031

Re: When will indexing blow up?

For indexing to fail we have to assume that there won't be a decent slug of people who think they are smarter than others and can make more money by investing in individual stocks. With human nature the way it is, I don't think that will ever happen...and if by some chance it somehow starts to, then...
by welderwannabe
Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:46 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2631

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

When I look at my portfolio, my gold has outperformed everything else during the period inflation has been crazy. I'd say its doing just fine.
by welderwannabe
Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:07 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Single-bond ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 4593

Re: Single-bond ETFs

I have read the website and several articles on these single bond ETFs. I do not get the advantage of owning an ETF that trades into the current 3 month Treasury each month as opposed to just a generic Treasury ETF like SGOV or XHLF that holds a variety of 3-6 month treasuries at much lower expense...
by welderwannabe
Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:57 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 17
Views: 1195

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

Definitely agree with all you have to say but isn't it somewhat similar to the common saying about when one thinks the stock prices are way too high but that the stock market does not care what you think. Well the two are closely related IMHO. When rates are uber low for long, and the govt prints e...
by welderwannabe
Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:08 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 17
Views: 1195

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

For how years (decades) has that been said? Fair, but debt as a percent of GDP is 3X what it was not too long ago. Its really exploded in the last few years. There has to be an upper limit, just no one knows what it is. Some would argue we've already hit and thats a reason why inflation has been so...
by welderwannabe
Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Treasury bond pricing
Replies: 5
Views: 719

Re: Treasury bond pricing

OK, thanks, makes sense. I have no idea why they do it that way, considering the percent and dollar amounts really equate to the same, but I'm sure there is a good reason. I've never used Treasury Direct and was not aware they would sell in $100 increments. Brokerages sell secondary market and auct...
by welderwannabe
Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:15 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 17
Views: 1195

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

Which, if the effect is to just trigger more inflation, could put that 5 percent return in a very different light. If this is what it takes to stir interest in treasuries, it seems to me that there's a different sort of risk we ought to be talking about. That said, I bought another 10K last week. Y...
by welderwannabe
Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:38 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 17
Views: 1195

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

The Fed owns 40% of all the outstanding Treasurys already. They can just crank up purchases if foreigners decide they don't want it.

They will keep the printing presses rolling.
by welderwannabe
Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 12
Views: 1182

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

Nothing wrong with the above, except I'd add that ibonds are tax deferred which also adds to their benefits.
by welderwannabe
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Direct Indexing
Replies: 2
Views: 741

Re: Direct Indexing

Im also not sure theyve figure out the transfer process from one brokerage to another. The stocks would transfer fine, sure, but its just gonna look like a pile of stocks to the receiving broker. Direct indexing is really a method to keep you from being able to churn out to another broker, or at lea...
by welderwannabe
Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1215698

Re: The GOLD scream room

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:30 pm
Or, you could only do business with trustworthy people.
Trustworthy people are trustworthy until they are not.

Ive got a Sigma on order.
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 12:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

SilentMajority wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:32 am
Ok they mention the sunshine mint in D's article and they're calling them "planchets". I've heard that term a lot, fancy.
Im going with "overpriced metallic circles", AKA OPMC.
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:04 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

If you're bored out of your skull, this is the discussion I heard about it recently.

https://youtu.be/9nsVdDC0OIM
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:49 am
Not sure if this one has been posted yet
https://coinweek.com/us-mint-news/under ... -u-s-mint/
Thanks for that, it lines up with what I heard. Glad I wasn't making stuff up for once! >:D
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:10 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

Ok thanks for finding that. This really shows that the premiums on other coins is EXTREMELY low. These other mints must be operating at a loss if their new coins get to retailers and get sold to the public at $3 - $4 over spot and free shipping and all that. When the Gold to Silver ratio gets high ...
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:01 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: WiFi Extender?
Replies: 20
Views: 543

Re: WiFi Extender?

At first I thought I had hit another dead-end. Could not even connect to the router from this computer. Then I FINALLY realized that this computer had to be disconnected from my main router and connected to that router. After that the rest of the setup went smoothly. I even quickly found my long wi...
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:55 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

I'm not sure it's illegal for the mint to make a profit on bullion. It is according to the law. Public Law 99-61 is the law that effectively started the American Eagle program, by amending a previous law. Its been amended several times over the years, but the part about the selling price of the coi...
by welderwannabe
Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:59 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Reminder about Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 916

Re: Reminder about Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund

Maddy wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 2:58 pm
welderwannabe wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:58 am
The pure-play is their Treasury Only MM. . .
That would be FDLXX?
Yes, thats the one.
by welderwannabe
Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:51 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Reminder about Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 916

Re: Reminder about Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund

A repo is basically a short term collateralized loan. I like to think of it as going to a pawn shop, except you pawn a US Treasury instead of Grandpa's old guitar. If I wanted to borrow $10,000 I could sell you a $10,000 Treasury for $9000 and promise to buy it back from you the next day for $9010. ...
by welderwannabe
Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:42 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

Ok, I found the link. You can look up Silver Eagle production at the US Mint's site here https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/bullion-sales . However here is the short story 2020 30 Million Silver Eagles Made 2021 28 Million Silver Eagles Made 2022 16 Million Silver Eagles Made Whil...
by welderwannabe
Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

The premium the US mint charges the authorized dealers is outrageous. I think it's $8 or more right now and min buy is 10,000. The criteria to become an authorized dealer is also very steep. Just a couple years ago the premium to authorized dealers was close to $2 and still considered high. Obv inf...
by welderwannabe
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however. You're right on the premiums. Silver Eagles were close to 100% premium a couple months back. They are still obscene, which is why I w...
by welderwannabe
Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:58 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Reminder about Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 916

Re: Reminder about Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund

I'll also add that its very frustrating that these money market houses, like vanguard, basically have 3 funds that do the same things. Their cash reserves and federal MM do a ton of repos, and so does their Treasury MM now apparently. Why even have the 3 funds if they are mostly the same? They shoul...
by welderwannabe
Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 2588

Re: Silver

My silver maple leafs came in. What beautiful coins. I think they look almost as good as eagle Proofs.