Search found 732 matches

by jalanlong
Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

This is what I got back from my doctor's office less than 1.5 hours after I'd sent a message regarding symptoms and the expired test dates: "Vincent, There has been recent information put out that there are certain brands of test that remain stable for a certain number of months after expiration. J...
by jalanlong
Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:45 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I don’t think it’s based on evil. It’s stupidity and ignorance based on political correctness. I was against lockdowns from the beginning for a lot of reasons and was shocked at how much of society readily went along with them. Now we are 2+ years down the road and reaping the repercussions..supply...
by jalanlong
Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2178

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Speaking of treasury bill funds. Here are some good options I have come across that may help some: SGOV https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf Expense Ratio: 0.05% Effective Duration: 0.10 yrs 30 Day SEC Yield: 2.42% VUSXX https://investor.vanguard.com/invest...
by jalanlong
Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2178

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...
by jalanlong
Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

pugchief wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:32 am
Thanks for the backup, I Shrugged.

Again, this is why so many smart people who used to post here and lean right stopped. It's exhausting.
+1000
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3634

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 1
Views: 294

When is it time to load up on bonds.

My grandparents were of the depression generation. They never had really high paying jobs nor did they ever invest a penny into the stock market or real estate etc. However, they did retire with a pretty good nestegg thanks to thrifty savings and also the fact that they saved most of their money in ...
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 2084

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

FYI -- I published a new post today that reviewed portfolio returns in the first half of 2022, and it included a section on this topic. Halfway to Nowhere: 2022 Mid-Year Portfolio Rankings Be sure to take a look at the "stock sectors" chart in the article and think about what the resulting mix woul...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4634

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:25 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4634

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

Great stories, for sure. But, for every one of those winners, there are probably at least 10 losers who bought stocks in companies that went bust. LIke, say, Enron. Or Eastman Kodak. Or Woolworths. What would have happened to a person who bought the equivalent of an index fund instead of stock XYZ?...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4634

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4634

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:19 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4634

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

Great stories, for sure. But, for every one of those winners, there are probably at least 10 losers who bought stocks in companies that went bust. LIke, say, Enron. Or Eastman Kodak. Or Woolworths. What would have happened to a person who bought the equivalent of an index fund instead of stock XYZ?...
by jalanlong
Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Although most people on the forum now tend to dismiss Budd, either I missed or there never was a great response to his opinion. If we are actually in a multi-year trend of slowly rising interest rates, what will keep the PP or any Risk Parity portfolio from having the losses we have seen this year h...
by jalanlong
Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:48 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: iShares® iBonds® Dec 2023 Term Treasury ETF
Replies: 3
Views: 540

Re: iShares® iBonds® Dec 2023 Term Treasury ETF

I am pretty familiar with these defined maturity funds from Ishares and Invesco. I use them quite a bit for known expenses in the future.
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 01, 2022 4:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2232

Re: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds

Here ya go...this is how it happens https://pwco.com/how-bond-portfolios-lose-money-and-bounce-back/ Of course reality and interest rates moving around make it more complex but the end effect is the same...complete self-healing over time (largely tied to duration length) The problem with the exampl...
by jalanlong
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:27 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock Picking in the PP
Replies: 2
Views: 665

Re: Stock Picking in the PP

Anyone doing it? Buy and hold high beta stocks across the broad market. I went back in the old threads where this was raised and the primary objection was cost. Well, times have changed and now with free trades, it’s cheaper to run your own index. Say 25-50, equally weighted, across the broad marke...
by jalanlong
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:03 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Trump reelection bid
Replies: 220
Views: 8317

Re: Trump reelection bid

fp, Great response. I think I'm near 100% in agreement. I've got a different take on how to get us there though. Term limits. My observation is that anti-establishment turns establishment fairly quickly. Whether you are a Maga or Squad/Berniesta, they're both batting for special interests by and la...
by jalanlong
Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Trump reelection bid
Replies: 220
Views: 8317

Re: Trump reelection bid

Primaries are up first, so I think the poll most reasonably is asking about that. Sounds like everybody here has somebody else they like better. But, could he still sneak through if everybody doesn't agree on who else? In which case in the general it's the "lesser of two evils" question. I think th...
by jalanlong
Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

For me, LTTs are a buffer against deflationary shocks (2008, 2020, et al.) and an insurance policy against a Second Great Depression that lasts a generation. I would be a fanatical gold-bug if the PP didn't protect me from myself so well, so for me to admit that a protracted deflationary regime car...
by jalanlong
Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Okay, sorry I misinterpreted. I think I understand the positions of the recent posters here. If you look at some of the older posts, there were many that denied the reality of Covid, but I'm glad to see that the present discussions are more reasonable. After a million plus deaths from Covid in the ...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

If we agree that COVID is airborne, why the vitriol against masks? What's the downside to wearing one to avoid the chance of getting long COVID? There is not vitriol over someone else wearing a mask..just one over making me or my special needs son wear one in school all day long including outside i...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5562
Views: 769538

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Dr. Brix admits in her book that she lied. Guess what? She's not the only liar. What is truly amazing is that they are continuing this (see LA County) and there isn't massive pushback. Why? Because there are so many people still brainwashed by the original lies, they just can't get past their false...