Search found 727 matches

by jalanlong
Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2818

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 1
Views: 241

When is it time to load up on bonds.

My grandparents were of the depression generation. They never had really high paying jobs nor did they ever invest a penny into the stock market or real estate etc. However, they did retire with a pretty good nestegg thanks to thrifty savings and also the fact that they saved most of their money in ...
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1957

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

FYI -- I published a new post today that reviewed portfolio returns in the first half of 2022, and it included a section on this topic. Halfway to Nowhere: 2022 Mid-Year Portfolio Rankings Be sure to take a look at the "stock sectors" chart in the article and think about what the resulting mix woul...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4507

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:25 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4507

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

Great stories, for sure. But, for every one of those winners, there are probably at least 10 losers who bought stocks in companies that went bust. LIke, say, Enron. Or Eastman Kodak. Or Woolworths. What would have happened to a person who bought the equivalent of an index fund instead of stock XYZ?...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4507

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4507

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...
by jalanlong
Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:19 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 31
Views: 4507

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

Great stories, for sure. But, for every one of those winners, there are probably at least 10 losers who bought stocks in companies that went bust. LIke, say, Enron. Or Eastman Kodak. Or Woolworths. What would have happened to a person who bought the equivalent of an index fund instead of stock XYZ?...
by jalanlong
Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 211
Views: 13533

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Although most people on the forum now tend to dismiss Budd, either I missed or there never was a great response to his opinion. If we are actually in a multi-year trend of slowly rising interest rates, what will keep the PP or any Risk Parity portfolio from having the losses we have seen this year h...
by jalanlong
Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:48 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: iShares® iBonds® Dec 2023 Term Treasury ETF
Replies: 3
Views: 504

Re: iShares® iBonds® Dec 2023 Term Treasury ETF

I am pretty familiar with these defined maturity funds from Ishares and Invesco. I use them quite a bit for known expenses in the future.
by jalanlong
Thu Sep 01, 2022 4:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2113

Re: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds

Here ya go...this is how it happens https://pwco.com/how-bond-portfolios-lose-money-and-bounce-back/ Of course reality and interest rates moving around make it more complex but the end effect is the same...complete self-healing over time (largely tied to duration length) The problem with the exampl...
by jalanlong
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:27 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock Picking in the PP
Replies: 2
Views: 624

Re: Stock Picking in the PP

Anyone doing it? Buy and hold high beta stocks across the broad market. I went back in the old threads where this was raised and the primary objection was cost. Well, times have changed and now with free trades, it’s cheaper to run your own index. Say 25-50, equally weighted, across the broad marke...
by jalanlong
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:03 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Trump reelection bid
Replies: 220
Views: 7297

Re: Trump reelection bid

fp, Great response. I think I'm near 100% in agreement. I've got a different take on how to get us there though. Term limits. My observation is that anti-establishment turns establishment fairly quickly. Whether you are a Maga or Squad/Berniesta, they're both batting for special interests by and la...
by jalanlong
Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Trump reelection bid
Replies: 220
Views: 7297

Re: Trump reelection bid

Primaries are up first, so I think the poll most reasonably is asking about that. Sounds like everybody here has somebody else they like better. But, could he still sneak through if everybody doesn't agree on who else? In which case in the general it's the "lesser of two evils" question. I think th...
by jalanlong
Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 211
Views: 13533

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

For me, LTTs are a buffer against deflationary shocks (2008, 2020, et al.) and an insurance policy against a Second Great Depression that lasts a generation. I would be a fanatical gold-bug if the PP didn't protect me from myself so well, so for me to admit that a protracted deflationary regime car...
by jalanlong
Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Okay, sorry I misinterpreted. I think I understand the positions of the recent posters here. If you look at some of the older posts, there were many that denied the reality of Covid, but I'm glad to see that the present discussions are more reasonable. After a million plus deaths from Covid in the ...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

If we agree that COVID is airborne, why the vitriol against masks? What's the downside to wearing one to avoid the chance of getting long COVID? There is not vitriol over someone else wearing a mask..just one over making me or my special needs son wear one in school all day long including outside i...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Dr. Brix admits in her book that she lied. Guess what? She's not the only liar. What is truly amazing is that they are continuing this (see LA County) and there isn't massive pushback. Why? Because there are so many people still brainwashed by the original lies, they just can't get past their false...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Surely that also means that the infection- and case-fatality rates will approach zero. I am not sure that matters. Deaths are rarely quoted any more. The decisions now seem to all be based on the percentage of increase. The cases and hospitalizations here now are much lower than they were last year...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Again reporting from "ultra-liberal" Western Massachusetts where the vaunted liberal authoritarianism does NOT seem to reign. Yesterday I was at a music event. I was there from about 2 PM to 11:30 PM. There were two stages inside and one stage outside. There were a lot of people there. When I was l...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I saw a news article today that said "chances are you will catch COVID over and over again". So much for flattening the curve and returning to normal. Of course at this point no one even cares anymore. Our local health authority also told us to expect a 7th wave this summer. It's old hat. Just back...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5555
Views: 764722

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I guess it might be time to resurrect a thread I hoped would be disappearing forever. Has anyone noticed Covid mania coming back to their area? Last Thursday I went to the grocery store and noticed upon entering that every worker had on a mask. As I shopped I then noticed that every customer had on ...
by jalanlong
Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I don't get why the poor relative has gotten so much flack. The relative in question is doing so well that he doesn't ever look at his portfolio, so lets assume that his pre-retirement savings was quite healthy. Looking at on the longterm trends it seems that the SP500 typically yields about 4.4% -...