Search found 712 matches

by jalanlong
Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Okay, sorry I misinterpreted. I think I understand the positions of the recent posters here. If you look at some of the older posts, there were many that denied the reality of Covid, but I'm glad to see that the present discussions are more reasonable. After a million plus deaths from Covid in the ...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

If we agree that COVID is airborne, why the vitriol against masks? What's the downside to wearing one to avoid the chance of getting long COVID? There is not vitriol over someone else wearing a mask..just one over making me or my special needs son wear one in school all day long including outside i...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Dr. Brix admits in her book that she lied. Guess what? She's not the only liar. What is truly amazing is that they are continuing this (see LA County) and there isn't massive pushback. Why? Because there are so many people still brainwashed by the original lies, they just can't get past their false...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Surely that also means that the infection- and case-fatality rates will approach zero. I am not sure that matters. Deaths are rarely quoted any more. The decisions now seem to all be based on the percentage of increase. The cases and hospitalizations here now are much lower than they were last year...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Again reporting from "ultra-liberal" Western Massachusetts where the vaunted liberal authoritarianism does NOT seem to reign. Yesterday I was at a music event. I was there from about 2 PM to 11:30 PM. There were two stages inside and one stage outside. There were a lot of people there. When I was l...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I saw a news article today that said "chances are you will catch COVID over and over again". So much for flattening the curve and returning to normal. Of course at this point no one even cares anymore. Our local health authority also told us to expect a 7th wave this summer. It's old hat. Just back...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726045

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I guess it might be time to resurrect a thread I hoped would be disappearing forever. Has anyone noticed Covid mania coming back to their area? Last Thursday I went to the grocery store and noticed upon entering that every worker had on a mask. As I shopped I then noticed that every customer had on ...
by jalanlong
Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16039

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I don't get why the poor relative has gotten so much flack. The relative in question is doing so well that he doesn't ever look at his portfolio, so lets assume that his pre-retirement savings was quite healthy. Looking at on the longterm trends it seems that the SP500 typically yields about 4.4% -...
by jalanlong
Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16039

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

One thing I just picked up from a random walk down wall street regarding dividends. It is actually preferred for a company to buy back shares instead of distributing dividends because you pay less tax on capital gains versus dividends. I don't have proof right now but I expect it is now rare for a ...
by jalanlong
Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16039

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

A retirement draw is based on portfolio value . Not whether the income it spins off is from dividends , total return or interest. I sure hope you don’t use any advice from them I have had these discussions with him over holiday gatherings. He is going with the old premise of he buys a stock one tim...
by jalanlong
Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:00 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Replies: 11
Views: 1336

Re: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)

Why would he be down on TBill etfs? I’m keeping my dry powder in SGOV which is a 0-3 month treasury bill etf with a .05% expense ratio. I prefer the ease of that instead of setting up auto rolling etc. Especially since I can reinvest the distributions into more shares.
by jalanlong
Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16039

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I’d like to hear from someone who had a 100% stocks investing plan starting in 1960, and how they stuck with it through the crushing 15 year bear market that started in 66 or so, as their retirement outlook became more and more bleak. When by the end they were forgoing double digit interest from mo...
by jalanlong
Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:15 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 826

Bond ETFs vs Individual Bonds

I have been trying to wrap my head around constant maturity bond ETFs for ages and for some reason I just dont get it. The article from Cullen Roche below says that bond etfs are not any riskier than holding individual bonds as long as you hold the fund for its duration. He claims the problem is tha...
by jalanlong
Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:07 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: US Constitution - Originalism vs. Living Constitutionalism
Replies: 56
Views: 1671

Re: US Constitution - Originalism vs. Living Constitutionalism

Look at the Dobbs decision. The effect of the ruling is not that abortion is illegal, it's that it is not constitutionally protected. So the issue is sent back to states to do as their legislatures decide. Politically speaking, this is an Anti-Federalist outcome. Let your fellow locals decide, not ...
by jalanlong
Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Quality Time Left
Replies: 26
Views: 860

Re: Quality Time Left

J, there is a middle ground, you know. :) That’s why I like the PP. Me personally, I would NOT pay down that 3.25 mortgage. By the way, weren’t you despairing about not ever being able to buy a house last year? Or am I thinking of someone else? No, definitely not me. Although I would wonder how on ...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:10 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. Politics - Left vs Right
Replies: 32
Views: 899

Re: U.S. Poltics - Left vs Right

I still believe that was the downfall of the Republicans back in 2016. Once they saw Trump had a sizable coalition, they should have thrown all of their weight behind one candidate like Rubio. Instead they let a bunch of smaller candidates like Cruz hang around and divide up the non-Trump votes and...
by jalanlong
Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:01 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. Politics - Left vs Right
Replies: 32
Views: 899

Re: U.S. Poltics - Left vs Right

This time they need to find their candidate asap and throw all of their support behind them. I think that guy is DeSantis. The problem is that Trump may not want to get out of the way. You heard it here first: DeSantis vs Newsom in the 2024 presidential election. How bad will the hatchet job on DeS...
by jalanlong
Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:11 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Quality Time Left
Replies: 26
Views: 860

Quality Time Left

I have a random thought I would like to get the forum's opinions on. I have spent a lot of time the last 10-20 years studying stocks, investments, optimal portfolios etc. The irony was that I never made that much money or had that much in savings for it to amount to much. I was always thinking about...
by jalanlong
Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:38 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: US Constitution - Originalism vs. Living Constitutionalism
Replies: 56
Views: 1671

Re: US Constitution - Originalism vs. Living Constitutionalism

I do not agree that it will be a societal conversation because I do not believe people of either party like to get bogged down into principals. Having a principled belief system can lead a person to outcomes they may not necessarily find palatable. And one thing that most Americans (especially parti...
by jalanlong
Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 9
Views: 1517

Re: coping with a LTT bear market

I always hate that word on sale as all we have is a price that something is valued at . There are those here who thought Tlt was on sale at 145 or so . A lower price does not mean a sale … We spend 80% of all our investing time between the last low and last high . Is your buy really on sale when it...
by jalanlong
Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:06 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. Politics - Left vs Right
Replies: 32
Views: 899

Re: U.S. Poltics - Left vs Right

I went from socially liberal, but politically apathetic to being a partisan Democrat in 2004 with the twin calamities of the Iraq war and Katrina. I felt that if the party of "small" government couldn't govern, then I might as well vote for the party that believed in running a proper government, ev...
by jalanlong
Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 16039

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I mean , it is no different then the fact that even 100% equities can loose way more at this point and still be ahead balance wise of the pp so you need to look at a complete cycle . False. Consider someone who is about to retire. The returns of a complete cycle are less relevant to said individual...
by jalanlong
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:24 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 228
Views: 10343

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

School shootings are also down from the 1990s. The avg American would certainly not guess that. The data suggests your statement is nonsense. Note the 2022 data is only through May. Annualized it looks pretty consistent with 2020. More information can be found at: https://www.chds.us/ssdb/charts-gr...