Search found 355 matches

by jalanlong
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs EDV vs ZROZ
Replies: 13
Views: 11367

Re: TLT vs EDV vs ZROZ

I've used EDV for the past 8 years for all my long bonds. Keep in mind EDV is about 50% more volatile than TLT so you need less of it to balance out your stock holdings. Craig, Tex and others have discussed before so review the older posts in the bond section. Can you explain why the volatility nee...
by jalanlong
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Replies: 15
Views: 603

Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?

Wellesley (non-global) is a wonderful fund. For a long time, I’ve been tempted to employ a vp of my select indy dividend stocks with VCIT (Vanguard intermediate corporate bond etf) as a kind of homemade wellesley. Even a mix of of VTI (total stock) and VCIT at Wellesley’s current stock-bond proport...
by jalanlong
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:47 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Volcker
Replies: 32
Views: 1185

Re: Volcker

I think even Volcker commented that there was no way rates could be raised like they were. The federal budget to service the debt would destroy the government. The market crash would potentially leave seventy million people retiring in abject poverty with an epic stock market crash (401ks and pensi...
by jalanlong
Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:59 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 854

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

I would love nothing more than to be optimistic. I mean optimism means I get to load up on stocks. I loved buying stocks as a kid, watching the prices go up, getting my dividends etc. But everything I see tells me the economic future is not going to be so bright. 1) what I have seen at my last two j...
by jalanlong
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 19
Views: 676

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

I think because dividends are tangible. If you don’t pay it then everyone notices. On buybacks, companies are always announcing their intention to buy back stock. But people rarely follow-up to measure if the promises were kept. Plus companies tend to buy back shares at really high prices and sit o...
by jalanlong
Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:41 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 19
Views: 676

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

I read the first link about Abbott Labs dividend lady. Good stuff. I was inspired by something I read on the net in the 90's. This guy wrote, "if you want to ensure that your children have plenty of income there is only one way I know of." You start with a million dollars and buy shares of many dif...
by jalanlong
Sat Feb 27, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 19
Views: 676

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

While technically true, only 1 of the original Dow stocks actually went out of business. The others merged into companies that still exist today. For example Chicago Gas is now part of Integrys Energy. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/who-were-original-dow-jones-industrial-average-dj...
by jalanlong
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:51 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 19
Views: 676

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

The biggest challenge is knowing in advance which stocks are going to be around for 30 years. I would definitely modify with something that tossed out stocks from time to time and selected new ones. If one didn't want the hassle of self managing a concentrated ETF that focuses on dividends with a g...
by jalanlong
Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:45 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 19
Views: 676

Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

I love stories like these below. Do you think this strategy is still valid in 2021 moving forward the next 20-30 years? https://www.thecompoundinvestor.com/grace-groner-abbott-labs-millionaire/ https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/02/the-smart-investing-strategy-a-janitor-used-to-build-an-8-million-portfoli...
by jalanlong
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario
Replies: 128
Views: 2079

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

By last summer I figured there wouldn’t be much flu because of the COVID precautions. I know you [SomeDude] don’t want to believe that, but I do. If the Covid precautions worked so well for the flu, why didn't they also work for Covid? Everyone at risk from the flu was already dead from Covid I gue...
by jalanlong
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:47 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario
Replies: 128
Views: 2079

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

https://nypost.com/2021/02/19/white-house-working-with-social-media-to-silence-anti-vaxxers/ "The White House is asking social media companies to clamp down on chatter that deviates from officially distributed COVID-19 information as part of President Biden’s “wartime effort” to vanquish the corona...
by jalanlong
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:40 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario
Replies: 128
Views: 2079

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Not trying to make a political point but I do find it fascinating how Covid has exposed a lot of collectivist tendencies in a country that is supposedly so individualist. The slogans are everywhere..."We are in this together" or "Stronger Together." Even my son's elementary school tshirts this year...
by jalanlong
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario
Replies: 128
Views: 2079

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

https://nypost.com/2021/02/19/white-house-working-with-social-media-to-silence-anti-vaxxers/ "The White House is asking social media companies to clamp down on chatter that deviates from officially distributed COVID-19 information as part of President Biden’s “wartime effort” to vanquish the coronav...
by jalanlong
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario
Replies: 128
Views: 2079

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Not trying to make a political point but I do find it fascinating how Covid has exposed a lot of collectivist tendencies in a country that is supposedly so individualist. The slogans are everywhere..."We are in this together" or "Stronger Together." Even my son's elementary school tshirts this year ...
by jalanlong
Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:50 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 854

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's ri...
by jalanlong
Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 854

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

I have heard several podcasts recently where the guests recommended gold and silver due to all of the reasons previously stated but then went on to say don't make it more than 10% of your portfolio. I don't really understand why. Since 1989 (a random date i chose) gold has returned around 4.5%, hand...
by jalanlong
Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 15
Views: 4761

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the ...
by jalanlong
Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 854

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

I am very pessimistic about the direction I see the economy taking and how it will affect three of the four elements of the permanent portfolio. Higher taxes, continuing Wuhan virus restrictions and more regulation will harm the stock market, huge deficit spending will impact long term bonds, and e...
by jalanlong
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 155
Views: 85854

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

UST/TQQQ/VGSH 70/20/10 (The bullet) VGSH/TQQQ/TMF/DGP 44/25/12.5/18.5 (The barbell) - Note the change from UGLD to DGP and the change in weighting of gold etfs and cash. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% (Newbie 1) BND 70%, TQQQ 25%, VIXY 5% (Newbie 2) A very good year for RP that's for ...
by jalanlong
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Using Zeroes for LTT
Replies: 6
Views: 478

Re: Using Zeroes for LTT

Zeros can be a lot more volatile.... This is true. Interestingly 18% EDV in the PP is equivalent to 25% TLT, this actually frees up 7% that could be diverted to cash or reits or some other asset not typically found in the PP That was my thought. If i used EDV at 15-20% I could increase stocks and g...
by jalanlong
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3260

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Going to listen the the podcast. The one thing I thing that LTT’s may be very good for is the 30x spike they will provide of we have deflationary shock. But if we turn inflationary they will be one big heavy anchor ...so it is a gamble ...actually better odds though as the fed will opt for inflatio...
by jalanlong
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 4058
Views: 238104

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I can understand that way of thinking in the first few months of the unknown. But after a year, how has the average person not at some point run into the data of say the mortality rate and compare that to the hysteria. I mean at this point maybe 100 celebrities and pro athletes have tested positive...
by jalanlong
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 4058
Views: 238104

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

The sad reality is that a lot of people don't think very critically about things, and they believe whatever the media and public health authorities (like Fauci) tell them. So regardless of the actual risks, until Fauci and the media change the narrative to say that it's safe the leave the house and...
by jalanlong
Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 4058
Views: 238104

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Yes, I'm more or less on Tortoise's page as regards the flu. I didn't say it wasn't important, I said it can no longer be diagnosed because there isn't a sensitive enough test for it. The question, I guess, is whether it's worth tanking the economy and shutting down schools every winter when the fl...
by jalanlong
Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 4058
Views: 238104

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Yes, there really needs to be some sort of societal discussion of what is and isn't an acceptable level of risk. Here's an idea for an acceptable level of risk: your risk of dying in a car crash, if you drive an average number of miles per day. That is a number that is not hard to calculate. If you...