Search found 687 matches

by ppnewbie
Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7675

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Substituting Wellesley for cash in the HBPP looks great as well. Highest Sharpe, Sortino and a neutral correlation to the general market. Need to understand Wellesley better because it lowers correlations while increasing the amount of equities. Maybe the chart is a result of the timeframes which is...
by ppnewbie
Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 21
Views: 1006

Re: Gold is not an investment

If the earnings stay consistent - I eventually get it back in a higher stock price or someone a tries to acquire the company or I get a big dividend one day. Is this unusual? It’s served me very well over the last many years. Basically value investing.
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 21
Views: 1006

Re: Gold is not an investment

Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that ...
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 5:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7675

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

dualstow wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 5:28 pm
Approximate the returns and drawdowns, maybe. I still don’t think it’s the same. It may not always be so close. And, you don’t have cash that you can withdraw.
OK
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7675

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

It’s also fun to try to replicate an HBPP in two components Wellesley and gold OR Wellington and gold. It’s a cool portfolio, but how is that replicating the HBPP? That’s like replicating a pizza with a bowl of spaghetti and meatballs. Also a fine dish, but not the same. Gold, Stock, Bonds, Short t...
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 7
Views: 836

Re: coping with a LTT bear market

@Mike59 thanks for the post. Excellent insights. I am about to rebalance. Hopefully, I won’t lose my nerve before I jump further into the LTT pool!
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7675

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

It’s also fun to try to replicate an HBPP in two components Wellesley and gold OR Wellington and gold.
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7675

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I recommended Wellesley to a friend recently, after I pointed out that his financial advisor was stealing his money in fees. At first he got mad at me then he realized I was right. It’s fun to throw in Wellesley in HBPP backtests (for the cash portion). Also one way to look at the HBPP is a place to...
by ppnewbie
Fri May 27, 2022 1:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?
Replies: 8
Views: 611

Re: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?

Eagles are in the greatest demand and I believe easier to sell back to a coin shop. I like Maple Leafs and Brittanias as well. Be a little careful with bigger bars. They are easier supposedly easier counterfeit and a coin shop may want to drill into the bar to check it (maybe a 100 oz bar). I also h...
by ppnewbie
Thu May 26, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 47
Views: 3836

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Monkeypox is worth a few million "impressions". The click machine must be fed.
by ppnewbie
Tue May 24, 2022 5:00 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
Replies: 5
Views: 615

Re: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?

Dxy up 12.59% in last year now. My understanding of what I have heard is all the dollar denominated debt is needing to be paid off. That causes the demand for the dollars and selling of everything else to get the dollars. The would include the selling of long bonds making rates go up there even tho...
by ppnewbie
Tue May 24, 2022 10:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079940

Re: The GOLD scream room

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 10:15 am
joypog wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am
Even if it ends up being a tulip

cute O0
Put one percent GBTC in a HBPP in a backtest and see how it juices your returns over the last 5 years.
by ppnewbie
Tue May 24, 2022 12:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079940

Re: The GOLD scream room

joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
Based off of gbtc I think it’s 32.83%.
by ppnewbie
Mon May 23, 2022 9:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079940

Re: The GOLD scream room

I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well. Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever. I was once watching some variety show in the late 70’s and I remember a person who could mimic what an...
by ppnewbie
Mon May 23, 2022 3:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 228
Views: 27258

Re: BTC in the PP

IMHO - Decentralized databases (blockchain) and computing (smart contracts) are pretty momentous new developments in the world, but at the moment it is complete Mad Max territory.
by ppnewbie
Mon May 23, 2022 1:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 228
Views: 27258

Re: BTC in the PP

A continued...ah, no. https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-when-things-break/ 3) Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins. Here’s an alarming disclosure from CoinBase in which they explain that the Bitcoin they custody could be considered firm assets in case of bankruptcy. In other words, cust...
by ppnewbie
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079940

Re: The GOLD scream room

I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
by ppnewbie
Sat May 21, 2022 1:07 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 47
Views: 3836

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

It’s baby formula shortages turn in the spot light. I wonder what humans did for the approximate 300,000 years before it was invented.
by ppnewbie
Tue May 17, 2022 5:10 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 47
Views: 3836

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Here is a good link to get a broader perspective on the world:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
by ppnewbie
Tue May 17, 2022 3:33 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 518
Views: 26911

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol) What is the significance of the steel plant? Physically, it was the last hold out that enabled interdiction of a land bridge to Crimea Metaphorically, it turned into the Ukrainian version of the Alamo or if you're into ancient h...
by ppnewbie
Tue May 17, 2022 9:37 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 518
Views: 26911

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 7:22 am
The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)
What is the significance of the steel plant?
by ppnewbie
Mon May 16, 2022 12:52 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 47
Views: 3836

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Mass Shootings seem to be capturing attention. I believe there is something like an average of 10 mass shootings per week in the US. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/15/1099008586/mass-shootings-us-2022-tally-number https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting Back in less propagandistic tim...
by ppnewbie
Mon May 16, 2022 11:13 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 518
Views: 26911

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

More excellent analysis kbg.
by ppnewbie
Mon May 16, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 518
Views: 26911

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia. There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of t...
by ppnewbie
Mon May 16, 2022 2:25 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 47
Views: 3836

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Mass Shootings seem to be capturing attention. I believe there is something like an average of 10 mass shootings per week in the US.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/15/10990085 ... lly-number

https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/repo ... s-shooting