Search found 429 matches

by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 2
Views: 60

Next up on the planned crisis list

Wow thats click baity? Straight from the heart of Davos - Ukraine, Climate change, Cyber warfare... I was a lefty, morphing into a libertarian (still left leaning), now a libertarian (right leaning). I've never done it before but in the absence of a very wise heavily right leaning democrat, I'm like...
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation .. Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions I bet a GB with BITCOIN outperforms. Well track it going ...
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Best Cash Back Credit Card
Replies: 10
Views: 179

Re: Best Cash Back Credit Card

I play the 5% cash back category game. Discover https://www.discover.com/credit-cards/cashback-bonus/cashback-calendar.html Chase Freedom https://www.chasebonus.com/ https://creditcards.chase.com/cash-back-credit-cards/freedom/flex The fidelity 2% cash back card for everything else. The automatic r...
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:14 am
It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation ..

Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions
I bet a GB with BITCOIN outperforms.
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:02 am
Nice attempt for what it’s worth …your more ambitious than I am. It does backtest well .

Now I need to name it

I think wellsely is close although wellesly does hold a fair amount of long term bonds .

Wellesly is a fine fund for retirement
Bitcoin
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.07.50 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.07.50 AM.png (375.52 KiB) Viewed 51 times
Longer Term backtest when you take out GBTC (backtest only go to 2016).
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.10.37 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.10.37 AM.png (295.4 KiB) Viewed 51 times
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

11 percent drop during the 2020 crash. From 24144 to 21481. Thats good.

Modifying the post a bit. I removed GBTC and this seems to basically track a GB portfolio
by ppnewbie
Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

Signal! I think we may have a winner.
MJ_Backtest.png
MJ_Backtest.png (287.6 KiB) Viewed 60 times
MJ_Performance.png
MJ_Performance.png (236.88 KiB) Viewed 60 times
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Best Cash Back Credit Card
Replies: 10
Views: 179

Re: Best Cash Back Credit Card

Thanks for the input!
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

OK last question for MJ.

Is the following statement true?

This statement is false.
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

If he had this info, and disclosed it on this forum, everyone would realize him as the charlatan that he is. I don’t think he’s a charlatan at all. However, without the numbers, there’s a lot of confidence in these posts in pretty much every nook anad cranny of this, a permanent portfolio forum, co...
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

As folks can see I am trying to find the signal in the noise. I’ve gotten two solid pieces of info. One was the portfolio break down and the other was list of the funds used (at one point in time). What I don’t know is what were MJ’s allocation in percentages (of the (26.4%). Apologies in advance - ...
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

No idea …All I can tell you is what the individual models show since I only do a year end balance comparison AFTER OUR YEARLY SPENDING. There are just to many moving parts in retirement because many pieces of the portfolio are in our taxable account we live on . So money is always going in and comi...
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

I don’t track performance since I retired and we are drawing out 6 figures a year ..only tracking I do personally is i compare balances left year to year …it’s the only thing that matters now Any performance tracking I do is done by the newsletter in the models themselves and i use a mix of two of ...
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

From 11/30 2020
portfolios.png
portfolios.png (745.01 KiB) Viewed 234 times
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

I was just about post that same image. Thanks.
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

I don’t track performance since I retired and we are drawing out 6 figures a year ..only tracking I do personally is i compare balances left year to year …it’s the only thing that matters now Any performance tracking I do is done by the newsletter in the models themselves and i use a mix of two of ...
by ppnewbie
Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

Although we like to say thinking this time is different , rarely happens , the truth is history rarely repeats itself . Not long ago one of your oft-repeated tropes was how much money people lose assuming "this time is different" rather than sticking with "what has been and has a good chance of con...
by ppnewbie
Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Best Cash Back Credit Card
Replies: 10
Views: 179

Best Cash Back Credit Card

I'm in the market for a new simple cash back credit card. With no categories and rules etc...I thought I would ask the smart people on this forum for recommendations. So far I have come across the BofA cash back card that would pay up to 2.62% cash back. https://www.bankofamerica.com/credit-cards/pr...
by ppnewbie
Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by ppnewbie
Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by ppnewbie
Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by ppnewbie
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3252

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels some...
by ppnewbie
Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

Not sure if anyone else has experience with the PP without the benefit of rebalancing. Without it, I'm not sure the PP works. It may be a way to hedge severe downturns but not a way to generate a return. Also, for me I kept it out of my taxable account in order to avoid the major issue of taxes duri...
by ppnewbie
Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3986

Re: Yay PP!

I’m confused here. What is your exact allocation (percentages) , when did you get in to the PP, how many times have you rebalanced, how many times have you added more money into the PP. Also gold is up fifty percent in three years. IMHO: If your young and have a long runway of earnings you should co...