Search found 697 matches

by ppnewbie
Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:20 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 68
Views: 6653

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

And there are a few pro-life women. A poll asked if I'd be ok with my CA tax dollars being used to bring women here for abortions. I said sure, grind em up we need stem cells. Newsom spent $100,000 on DeSantis' opponent, instead of using that money to help Californians https://www.youtube.com/watch...
by ppnewbie
Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:48 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 68
Views: 6653

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

It seems from reading many of the recent posts on several threads that a lot of people have lost faith in the government. What's next? Apathy, escapism, fix it, revolution, bend over and take one for the Gipper, bitch more, put your faith in something that is everlasting, something else, ....... ? ...
by ppnewbie
Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 39
Views: 3450

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

Basic question...what exactly is "Cape" and how do I calculate it? Thanks! CAPE = Cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio. It's essentially a PE ratio, using a ten-year average of earnings. You can look it up here: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Some use 1/CAPE to estimate future stock retur...
by ppnewbie
Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 68
Views: 6653

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

It seems from reading many of the recent posts on several threads that a lot of people have lost faith in the government. What's next? Apathy, escapism, fix it, revolution, bend over and take one for the Gipper, bitch more, put your faith in something that is everlasting, something else, ....... ? ...
by ppnewbie
Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 1644
Views: 250094

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

I noticed moon cakes at Costco as well.
by ppnewbie
Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:28 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 1644
Views: 250094

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:17 pm
Random thought on my walk today:

James Rickards is the Deepak Chopra of the investment world.

I think the comparison is apt.
Good one!
by ppnewbie
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 211
Views: 13541

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

As an avid reader of Gyroscopic and Bogleheads threads from years, even a decade ago, this thread gave me a strange sense of deja vu. It is remarkable how quaint the turmoil of the past seems when viewed in retrospect. I can't help but feel that all this panic about LTT will one day seem amusing (....
by ppnewbie
Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 68
Views: 6653

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

What I find is strange is how much of a mountain was made out of this. They had some parties while the country was locked down and he hired a person that was not vetted properly. Another dumb mistake. No funneling weapons to rogue states, war crimes, cash transfers, bribes. Just some parties and a ...
by ppnewbie
Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 68
Views: 6653

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

What I find is strange is how much of a mountain was made out of this. They had some parties while the country was locked down and he hired a person that was not vetted properly. Another dumb mistake. No funneling weapons to rogue states, war crimes, cash transfers, bribes. Just some parties and a h...
by ppnewbie
Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:30 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41033

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

What is everyone’s best guess as to how many people will die from this conflict directly or indirectly. I’m thinking 2 million. Global famine, actual war, diseases of poverty, etc, etc…
by ppnewbie
Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Substituting Wellesley for cash in the HBPP looks great as well. Highest Sharpe, Sortino and a neutral correlation to the general market. Need to understand Wellesley better because it lowers correlations while increasing the amount of equities. Maybe the chart is a result of the timeframes which is...
by ppnewbie
Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 35
Views: 2997

Re: Gold is not an investment

If the earnings stay consistent - I eventually get it back in a higher stock price or someone a tries to acquire the company or I get a big dividend one day. Is this unusual? It’s served me very well over the last many years. Basically value investing.
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is not an investment
Replies: 35
Views: 2997

Re: Gold is not an investment

Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that ...
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 5:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

dualstow wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 5:28 pm
Approximate the returns and drawdowns, maybe. I still don’t think it’s the same. It may not always be so close. And, you don’t have cash that you can withdraw.
OK
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

It’s also fun to try to replicate an HBPP in two components Wellesley and gold OR Wellington and gold. It’s a cool portfolio, but how is that replicating the HBPP? That’s like replicating a pizza with a bowl of spaghetti and meatballs. Also a fine dish, but not the same. Gold, Stock, Bonds, Short t...
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 9
Views: 1832

Re: coping with a LTT bear market

@Mike59 thanks for the post. Excellent insights. I am about to rebalance. Hopefully, I won’t lose my nerve before I jump further into the LTT pool!
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

It’s also fun to try to replicate an HBPP in two components Wellesley and gold OR Wellington and gold.
by ppnewbie
Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I recommended Wellesley to a friend recently, after I pointed out that his financial advisor was stealing his money in fees. At first he got mad at me then he realized I was right. It’s fun to throw in Wellesley in HBPP backtests (for the cash portion). Also one way to look at the HBPP is a place to...
by ppnewbie
Fri May 27, 2022 1:02 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?
Replies: 8
Views: 1139

Re: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?

Eagles are in the greatest demand and I believe easier to sell back to a coin shop. I like Maple Leafs and Brittanias as well. Be a little careful with bigger bars. They are easier supposedly easier counterfeit and a coin shop may want to drill into the bar to check it (maybe a 100 oz bar). I also h...
by ppnewbie
Thu May 26, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 68
Views: 6653

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Monkeypox is worth a few million "impressions". The click machine must be fed.
by ppnewbie
Tue May 24, 2022 5:00 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
Replies: 7
Views: 1193

Re: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?

Dxy up 12.59% in last year now. My understanding of what I have heard is all the dollar denominated debt is needing to be paid off. That causes the demand for the dollars and selling of everything else to get the dollars. The would include the selling of long bonds making rates go up there even tho...
by ppnewbie
Tue May 24, 2022 10:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3553
Views: 1137761

Re: The GOLD scream room

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 10:15 am
joypog wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am
Even if it ends up being a tulip

cute O0
Put one percent GBTC in a HBPP in a backtest and see how it juices your returns over the last 5 years.
by ppnewbie
Tue May 24, 2022 12:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3553
Views: 1137761

Re: The GOLD scream room

joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
Based off of gbtc I think it’s 32.83%.
by ppnewbie
Mon May 23, 2022 9:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3553
Views: 1137761

Re: The GOLD scream room

I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well. Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever. I was once watching some variety show in the late 70’s and I remember a person who could mimic what an...
by ppnewbie
Mon May 23, 2022 3:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 231
Views: 31846

Re: BTC in the PP

IMHO - Decentralized databases (blockchain) and computing (smart contracts) are pretty momentous new developments in the world, but at the moment it is complete Mad Max territory.