Search found 124 matches

by ppnewbie
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)
Replies: 5
Views: 171

Re: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)

I have not looked into to it in detail but from what I remember it is a tiny etf that may not trade well. On a positive note it is back by the Western Australian government.
by ppnewbie
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: New ETF option from State Street GLDM
Replies: 1
Views: 92

New ETF option from State Street GLDM

.18 expense ratio each share is 1/100 of an ounce. Looks like it could be a winner. State Street plus lowest ER on the market.
by ppnewbie
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)
Replies: 5
Views: 171

Re: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)

I chose IAU instead of GLD etf in my 401k. It has a lower expense ratio. It was the second largest gold etf so I figured it was relatively safe. GLD is the (pardon the pun) gold standard though. It is the largest and I believe it is the most liquid. Meaning when you want to sell there is going to be...
by ppnewbie
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Re: Coin Flip

InsuranceGuy wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:11 am
OTM options on SPY/SPX should be able to be calibrated to 50/50.
Thanks for the suggestion.
by ppnewbie
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Re: Coin Flip

One more issue that you would need to factor in: The distribution of wins/losses are guaranteed not to be gaussian. So don't use a random number generator for your simulation. You would be surprised how quickly you can go broke if you assume a normal distribution. Model this with historical tick by ...
by ppnewbie
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining GB with spread trend
Replies: 15
Views: 512

Re: Combining GB with spread trend

How do you feel about REITs midterm? Personally, REITs feel like they are in a precarious position.
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Re: Coin Flip

I need a free lunch! ;)
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Re: Coin Flip

I was thinking that the PP is essentially a form of this strategy. LTT and Stocks are fifty percent risk on (the coin flip) and cash and gold are fifty percent risk off portion of the bet that rebalances. It's just the time period is to slow. I need to go through kbg's "inspired leveraged portfolio"...
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Re: Coin Flip

Perfect thanks. During the quarantine, I can learn about the Kelly Criterion. Thanks!
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Re: Coin Flip

Probably. I tried it with some code and the results were very interesting. Do you have any idea on how to try this in the real world?
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 309

Coin Flip

Does anyone know a volatile force in the market that is: As close to random as possible I could make a big bet on that I would double money on if the bet went my way or lose half (preferably not 100 percent) if the bet went the wrong way. The random force occurred as much as possible - preferably ar...
by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Pushing your chips "all in" for the PP
Replies: 14
Views: 2138

Re: Pushing your chips "all in" for the PP

I became more open to the HBPP when I started to understand gold more and when I realized how artificially inflated and fragile the market was. Also my taxable account is nearly a hundred percent in buffet style value stocks. It was built over many years. So I figured I would have one gyroscope (the...