I wish I could backtest VCIT / VTI further.

Here is a good one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7r7nTVmdLc

I think Mike Maloney first published this little gem a few years ago in his Hidden Secrets of Money series.

I think even Volcker commented that there was no way rates could be raised like they were. The federal budget to service the debt would destroy the government. The market crash would potentially leave seventy million people retiring in abject poverty with an epic stock market crash (401ks and pensio...

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's ri...

As someone who works in infrastructure. This kind of thing happens. In my field its called "technical debt". There are so many things that happen on a day to day, year to year basis that black swan events always get ignored. The debt keeps growing and growing...until kaboom! It's just the way it is....

My humble take is that both sides of the media are pretty much trash at the moment. They are simply singing for their dinner and this articles success is purely measured in clicks (which translates to money). These guys will start writing about donkeys if they would get paid for it. Another interest...

The reason I opted out of TLT was the expense ratio but with a .05 % expense ratios - It's pretty hard to beat SCHQ and VGLT. And it saves the hassle of buying and selling LTT's at auction. But a pro with an actual LTT, is that your only counter party is the US Govt. You will get your money back. Th...

I ran 100% wellesley, 75% wellesley, 25% IAU, and an HBPP(TLT,IAU,VTI,BIL). They were all pretty similar. I also did one with Wellington funds. None of the portfolios took a big hit during the March crash. The images show the numbers before the market downturn and at the bottom. Portfolios.jpg Welle...

Sorry for the annoying question here. Can I get a quick recap on the newbie 2 rules. Rebalance bands and frequency of rebalancing.

I watched an interesting YouTube video of someone discussing trying to sell his rhodium bar.

He had a hard time finding a dealer willing to buy it but I believe he finally found one who had a big buyer lined up.

That’s actually pretty close!

Maybe - I was actually looking at that recently. Then also started looking at Wellington. I’m going to backtest Wellington / IAU against the PP. Thanks for the suggestion.

Curious if there any funds / etf’s in the Vanguard family or other major players that could be used for a US Goldsmith PP.

You can plug this allocation Tyler’s site - portfoliocharts.com and get a good idea of how it is going to perform long term. Also portfoliovisualizer.com is good for backtesting. I did a quick check and it looks pretty good. There was a 17% drawdown but I think the lowest year was a -4 percent retur...

That allocation may be painful during times of prosperity. And LTB’s losses may outpace your gains if interest rates rise due to inflation. I’m curious on how it back tests.

Sorry read your post wrong - I thought it was .33 cash not stocks.

Thanks for the link Hal.

That sounds like magic. STT get the yield of ITT's.

Just subscribed to this topic so I don’t miss your update again. That was a good one!

Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.

And.....they are gone

I agree with Kevin. I’m just letting my LTTs fade a bit - they are at about 20 percent at the moment and my PP is tilting towards a bet that we will see inflation. But if there is another major crash I think the LTT’s will help keep the ship upright.

I have been doing a deep dive lately and the next 15 or 20 years could be a massive shock to old institutions. I am going to start getting me feet wet and continue to research.

Going to listen the the podcast. The one thing I thing that LTT’s may be very good for is the 30x spike they will provide of we have deflationary shock.

The best thing was when I talked to this person (a former Wall Street fat cat), he was crying and whining that nobody could have predicted so much QE. I kind of subtlety asked how long interest rates have been going down and how many rounds of QE have happened since 2008 but backed off because these...

Inflation - Gold and stocks.