Search found 259 matches
- Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:36 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 599
Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
I wish I could backtest VCIT / VTI further.
Re: Volcker
Here is a good one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7r7nTVmdLc
I think Mike Maloney first published this little gem a few years ago in his Hidden Secrets of Money series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7r7nTVmdLc
I think Mike Maloney first published this little gem a few years ago in his Hidden Secrets of Money series.
Re: Volcker
I think even Volcker commented that there was no way rates could be raised like they were. The federal budget to service the debt would destroy the government. The market crash would potentially leave seventy million people retiring in abject poverty with an epic stock market crash (401ks and pensio...
- Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:06 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
- Replies: 26
- Views: 853
Re: Gold Defensive Strategy
If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's ri...
- Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:54 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Texas: all hat no cattle?
- Replies: 29
- Views: 730
Re: Texas: all hat no cattle?
As someone who works in infrastructure. This kind of thing happens. In my field its called "technical debt". There are so many things that happen on a day to day, year to year basis that black swan events always get ignored. The debt keeps growing and growing...until kaboom! It's just the way it is....
- Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:12 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Conservative's Neighborly Gesture Causes Angst, "Moral Dilemma" for Leftist
- Replies: 7
- Views: 398
Re: Conservative's Neighborly Gesture Causes Angst, "Moral Dilemma" for Leftist
My humble take is that both sides of the media are pretty much trash at the moment. They are simply singing for their dinner and this articles success is purely measured in clicks (which translates to money). These guys will start writing about donkeys if they would get paid for it. Another interest...
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
- Replies: 18
- Views: 778
Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
The reason I opted out of TLT was the expense ratio but with a .05 % expense ratios - It's pretty hard to beat SCHQ and VGLT. And it saves the hassle of buying and selling LTT's at auction. But a pro with an actual LTT, is that your only counter party is the US Govt. You will get your money back. Th...
- Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:35 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 599
Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
I ran 100% wellesley, 75% wellesley, 25% IAU, and an HBPP(TLT,IAU,VTI,BIL). They were all pretty similar. I also did one with Wellington funds. None of the portfolios took a big hit during the March crash. The images show the numbers before the market downturn and at the bottom. Portfolios.jpg Welle...
- Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:23 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 155
- Views: 85845
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Sorry for the annoying question here. Can I get a quick recap on the newbie 2 rules. Rebalance bands and frequency of rebalancing.
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:35 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rhodium
- Replies: 7
- Views: 168
Re: Rhodium
I watched an interesting YouTube video of someone discussing trying to sell his rhodium bar.
He had a hard time finding a dealer willing to buy it but I believe he finally found one who had a big buyer lined up.
He had a hard time finding a dealer willing to buy it but I believe he finally found one who had a big buyer lined up.
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:11 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 599
Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
That’s actually pretty close!
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 599
Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Maybe - I was actually looking at that recently. Then also started looking at Wellington. I’m going to backtest Wellington / IAU against the PP. Thanks for the suggestion.
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:04 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 599
US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Curious if there any funds / etf’s in the Vanguard family or other major players that could be used for a US Goldsmith PP.
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
- Replies: 45
- Views: 1181
Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
You can plug this allocation Tyler’s site - portfoliocharts.com and get a good idea of how it is going to perform long term. Also portfoliovisualizer.com is good for backtesting. I did a quick check and it looks pretty good. There was a 17% drawdown but I think the lowest year was a -4 percent retur...
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
- Replies: 45
- Views: 1181
Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
That allocation may be painful during times of prosperity. And LTB’s losses may outpace your gains if interest rates rise due to inflation. I’m curious on how it back tests.
Sorry read your post wrong - I thought it was .33 cash not stocks.
Sorry read your post wrong - I thought it was .33 cash not stocks.
- Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:52 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: BelangP's 65/35 vs PP
- Replies: 12
- Views: 801
Re: BelangP's 65/35 vs PP
Thanks for the link Hal.
- Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How does the G-Fund Work?
- Replies: 23
- Views: 647
Re: How does the G-Fund Work?
That sounds like magic. STT get the yield of ITT's.
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:08 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Best Silver deal
- Replies: 21
- Views: 610
Re: Best Silver deal
Just subscribed to this topic so I don’t miss your update again. That was a good one!
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Best Deal right now on Gold
- Replies: 121
- Views: 6138
Re: Best Deal right now on Gold
Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:00 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Best Silver deal
- Replies: 21
- Views: 610
Re: Best Silver deal
And.....they are gone
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:55 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
- Replies: 66
- Views: 3258
Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
I agree with Kevin. I’m just letting my LTTs fade a bit - they are at about 20 percent at the moment and my PP is tilting towards a bet that we will see inflation. But if there is another major crash I think the LTT’s will help keep the ship upright.
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:18 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I think it’s time to move into crypto
- Replies: 75
- Views: 1219
I think it’s time to move into crypto
I have been doing a deep dive lately and the next 15 or 20 years could be a massive shock to old institutions. I am going to start getting me feet wet and continue to research.
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:11 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
- Replies: 66
- Views: 3258
Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Going to listen the the podcast. The one thing I thing that LTT’s may be very good for is the 30x spike they will provide of we have deflationary shock.
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:07 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Renaissance Fund open to investors is laying an egg
- Replies: 3
- Views: 538
Re: Renaissance Fund open to investors is laying an egg
The best thing was when I talked to this person (a former Wall Street fat cat), he was crying and whining that nobody could have predicted so much QE. I kind of subtlety asked how long interest rates have been going down and how many rounds of QE have happened since 2008 but backed off because these...
- Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:55 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 1346
Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?
Inflation - Gold and stocks.