Search found 1189 matches

by pmward
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Growth Stocks vs Total Market
Replies: 13
Views: 1131

Re: Growth Stocks vs Total Market

There is absolutely no way Harry meant small-crap value. Harry meant the stocks that benefit the most in prosperity... ie bubble stocks. Only after he looked at market regime did he look for the most volatile asset in that regime. I also agree that "growth" as is defined in growth index funds isn't ...
by pmward
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2943
Views: 634167

Re: The GOLD scream room

I took the easy way out, which hopefully makes sense. Took profits and rebalanced GLD and SLV to near their correct amounts without having to touch physical. It pushed cash to above my rebalance limit, but I had in 2016 dropped my cash % from 25 to 10. This will raise it back to about 15%. I can li...
by pmward
Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2943
Views: 634167

Re: The GOLD scream room

Yeah in the short term gold is indeed feeling a bit "toppy" to me. I think a small $100-200 correction would be a healthy and good thing at this point. But who knows? August and September are strong months for gold seasonally speaking. So it could continue to soar a bit longer. Also, interesting tha...
by pmward
Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2943
Views: 634167

Re: The GOLD scream room

Gold is still cheaper than both stocks and bonds relatively speaking. I don't sell my stocks or bonds the day they hit a new all-time high. I'm certainly not going to do that on gold, especially when I believe gold will be the winner out of the 3 in the 2020's. Has the popular media and robinhood tr...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in an overvalued economy
Replies: 7
Views: 622

Re: Permanent Portfolio in an overvalued economy

I appreciate your thoughts pmward. That's where I am. I don't think it is a sure thing, but it seems to me like one hell of an upside. The way we imagine the world could change drastically in the next couple of decades. The key is to position yourself to gain if it happens, but not take too much of...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock Indexes Seem Busted. 20% in 4 stocks
Replies: 19
Views: 1461

Re: Stock Indexes Seem Busted. 20% in 4 stocks

Another way popped into my mind that one could express this other than just factors and international. S&P 500 equal weight. There is a handy ETF RSP that does this for you, and since it's an ETF you don't get taxed on the quarterly rebalancing like you would in a mutual fund. RSP actually tends to ...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: How Does Collectibles Tax Rate Work for ETFs?
Replies: 1
Views: 216

Re: How Does Collectibles Tax Rate Work for ETFs?

Yes, gold ETF's do fall under the collectables tax bucket. You can use tax loss harvested in other assets to offset gold gains, but there is an order of priority the offsetting goes in, so you have to make sure you have enough losses harvested to cover all your gains in all assets for that year. Mat...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2943
Views: 634167

Re: The GOLD scream room

Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level??? Pu...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock Indexes Seem Busted. 20% in 4 stocks
Replies: 19
Views: 1461

Re: Stock Indexes Seem Busted. 20% in 4 stocks

Everyone in this thread is only looking at left tail risk. What about right tail risk? What if those big tech names you're afraid of do continue to carry the indexes for the next decade or more? Not saying this will happen, but it is certainly possible. If one goes to great lengths to tilt away from...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in an overvalued economy
Replies: 7
Views: 622

Re: Permanent Portfolio in an overvalued economy

I still think from a high level perspective that we are still only in the 3rd or 4th inning of the tech revolution. I think tech as a whole will continue to out perform on the whole for decades to come. There is literally infinite innovation that can happen, and just like in the industrial revolutio...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 3418

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

QQQ and a small cap index are a much better mix than QQQ and SPY. I think pairing QQQ and an S&P600 index fund is an excellent option. They do a good job of zig zagging with each other in terms of performance. A 50/50 QQQ/IJR portfolio beats a 100% allocation to either in every performance metric t...
by pmward
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2943
Views: 634167

Re: The GOLD scream room

Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???