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by pmward
Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 407
Views: 85165

Re: The Bond Dream Room

I showed my TLT chart to my wife she told me to sell some. I did when my tight trailing stop alert went off. More and more cash... I'm not so sure cash is any better of an investment at this point in time. Cash is turning back into a fixed expense, lol. Seems to me like maybe trading something like...
by pmward
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 407
Views: 85165

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6pGEU2hejz-CDa08DwcwcHrHSm-/view Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes t...
by pmward
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buffett calling the top in growth?
Replies: 3
Views: 190

Buffett calling the top in growth?

Buffett is really loading up on AMZN. Is this the contrarian indicator that growths outperformance has peaked and that we are going to shift into the opposite regime where growth suffers and value relatively out performs? Seeing a big name value guy throw in the towel and start chasing growth has th...
by pmward
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2563
Views: 423812

Re: The GOLD scream room

So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain: The latest move IS simply a random event. The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years. The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something t...
by pmward
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 407
Views: 85165

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6pGEU2hejz-CDa08DwcwcHrHSm-/view Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes t...
by pmward
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 19
Views: 432

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

Yeah, for new funds, they are such a small percentage of the overall that I don't really worry about it too much. It does feel silly putting money into just about any individual asset right now, haha. I agree with kgb that it's the portfolio as a whole that really matters, and that's what I keep in ...
by pmward
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 407
Views: 85165

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Fun perspective. Record set on 30 year us bonds: https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/business/record-set-on-30-year-us-bonds.html Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up. Greenspan says 0% is just a n...
by pmward
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 40 Years since the death of equities
Replies: 4
Views: 230

Re: 40 Years since the death of equities

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:28 pm
Whys inflation bad for stocks. Prices go up nominally, profits go up nominally
The 70s beg to differ...
by pmward
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 679
Views: 126154

Re: Stock scream room

Yeah it is really funny listening to all the people freak out in my works investment Slack room. Most of the people on that board are not just 100% stocks, but heavy into gambling on IPO's and flavor of the month story stocks. Lots of tears there today. And me, I'm just sitting back from the comfort...
by pmward
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 407
Views: 85165

Re: The Bond Dream Room

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
by pmward
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 407
Views: 85165

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Thanks Kriegs!
by pmward
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2563
Views: 423812

Re: The GOLD scream room

Not surprising, gold is right at a major resistance level. Not surprised to see a little struggle and cool off, regardless of fundamentals. It has recovered most of its initial losses with the tariff news this morning though. Honesty, I don't trust any of the markets right now. I still think stocks ...