Search found 781 matches

by pmward
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Online Depository Program
Replies: 24
Views: 8136

Re: Perth Mint Online Depository Program

Gold is the ultimate safety net of everything going to crap.  At least that's what a lot of people believe, me included.  Maybe it is unwarranted and things hopefully will never get that bad. However, for those who have their (for example) stock portion in VTI, bonds in TLT, cash in a money market,...
by pmward
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 51
Views: 3915

Re: Negative interest rates

Given that inflation (as measured by CPI) is currently 2.3%, that means a zero-yielding Treasury has a real yield of -2.3%. Yet, for a lot of investors, a nominal negative yield of, say, -0.2% (a slightly lower real yield of -2.5%) is just a bridge too far. Investor psychology is an interesting thi...
by pmward
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long Term Energy Play
Replies: 11
Views: 2924

Re: Long Term Energy Play

Old thread. Oh, we thought in 2015 "surely the bottom must be in" for energy. Surely! Sorry... Five more years of Hell, and it's not over by a long shot. But I think we're close to the true button now. Western Canadian Select crude is $5. Alberta tar sands? $0. No bid. I did buy XOP ETF oil and gas...
by pmward
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Shortages caused by refusal to raise prices
Replies: 52
Views: 439

Re: Shortages caused by refusal to raise prices

What I find the most hilarious thing is that whenever you go to the Ramen isle without fail it's sold out of every flavor BUT shrimp ;D I know you meant to type ‘aisle’, but what a pleasant thought. It there were a Ramen Isle I’d vacation there. O0 Well my wife doesn’t know anything about investing...
by pmward
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Shortages caused by refusal to raise prices
Replies: 52
Views: 439

Re: Shortages caused by refusal to raise prices

I overheard an older woman asking a grocery clerk about the availability of some items. The clerk said “ We’re only ordering essential items right now .” Which makes sense. This morning, half of the items I wanted were just cleaned out: canned stews, canned tuna, pasta, lactose-free milk and a few ...
by pmward
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 552
Views: 173421

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Only the Fed would buy long bonds with negative rates. When does it make sense to underweight them in the PP? This is a good question. What percentage of total Treasury debt would need to be held by the Fed before the Treasury market could cease to be considered a true “market” in the normal sense ...
by pmward
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safety of Bond Mutual Funds v. Individual Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 215

Re: Safety of Bond Mutual Funds v. Individual Bonds

I understand the point that it was lack of liquidity in the bond market itself that was the root cause of the problems over the past couple of weeks but it's concerning to me that ETF's did worse. Do these arguments make sense, and if so does that mean bond ETFs (including TLT which is typically sa...
by pmward
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 308
Views: 22051

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

That's a ballsy move, as a mass default and corporate deleveraging is a real possible outcome of this. How are you sizing it? Is it a small percentage moonshot or are you putting decent size behind it?
by pmward
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining GB with spread trend
Replies: 6
Views: 291

Re: Combining GB with spread trend

We had some changes in the trends I was viewing last weekend. I'm using this thread to help me document, sort through, and notate my thoughts as I navigate this crazy time of change. As mentioned yesterday, silver is bouncing from historic oversold conditions relative to gold. As I mentioned I initi...
by pmward
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 1115
Views: 23222

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Yeah there is some discrepancy I've noticed here in the AZ numbers as well. From what I can gather it's that some sources (like the AZDHS) are only reporting the CDC test positives, and others are reporting both CDC and private testing facility positives. I'm not sure if something like that is going...
by pmward
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sold out
Replies: 15
Views: 310

Re: Sold out

I'm of the opinion that the very concept of price gouging is specious. I guess as long as fools are willing to pay a ridiculous premium when there are many other ways they can get gold exposure that are not a rip off the "gauging" will continue. But at the end of the day, buying retail coins from a...
by pmward
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sold out
Replies: 15
Views: 310

Re: Sold out

I notice people calling gold ETFs paper gold. I always thought these gold ETFs store real gold in a vault. My thought on the shortage of gold coins is that maybe mom and pops are going to their coin dealer to buy gold due to the massive money printing that's happening, but the coin stores didn't ha...