Search found 247 matches

by pmward
Sat May 25, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 19
Views: 399

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

I personally think the only real risk in gold ETF's in a crisis is that the holding company decides to cash you out and hold the gold for themselves. At the very least, they have to cash you out for fair value, the SEC will make sure of this in the very least. I think ETF's are safe. But I still hav...
by pmward
Sat May 25, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 608
Views: 111748

Re: Stock scream room

Yeah just because something back tests doesn't mean it's not anything more than just random luck. In this case, a couple of the largest bear market drops happened to be between May and October, and a couple of the biggest rally's happened to be in the other months. These couple cases severely skew t...
by pmward
Fri May 24, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Good Article about Gold ETF's also Tax Loss Harvesting Tip
Replies: 7
Views: 171

Re: Good Article about Gold ETF's also Tax Loss Harvesting Tip

Kbg wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:51 pm
There is tax case precedent on this.
Link to the case? I've never seen any precedent set in the context of ETF's or mutual funds. If there is evidence hiding out there, it would be very valuable for me and anyone else who comes here.
by pmward
Fri May 24, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Large LTT purchase
Replies: 11
Views: 181

Re: Large LTT purchase

Assuming you can buy open market bonds (e.g. those already issued) via a brokerage account(s) I'd definitely ladder. You want to be able to reinvest if interest rates ratchet up. (But that's an implicit forecast for sure) Mathematically, is there really any difference between buying a ladder, or ju...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Large LTT purchase
Replies: 11
Views: 181

Re: Large LTT purchase

Excellent Thread: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9866&hilit=FNBGX I can probably start with all FNBGX (.03% ER) and figure it out (.03% ER). Yep, that would be a good low cost fund. You can even do the same thing I'm doing with c...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 19
Views: 399

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

I think the PP is behaving pretty closely to how it's supposed to theoretically. The one asset I'm not so sure about is gold. I'd have to go back and reread the gold section of "Best Laid Plans" to see if I'm missing/not remembering something. One simple example; in theory gold should not have been...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Large LTT purchase
Replies: 11
Views: 181

Re: Large LTT purchase

Assuming you can buy open market bonds (e.g. those already issued) via a brokerage account(s) I'd definitely ladder. You want to be able to reinvest if interest rates ratchet up. (But that's an implicit forecast for sure) Mathematically, is there really any difference between buying a ladder, or ju...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Large LTT purchase
Replies: 11
Views: 181

Re: Large LTT / STT purchase

Expanding the question to STT Should I buy 1mo,3mo,6mo,1yr in equal proportions with autoroll enabled (see note). OR Just put it all in 1 yr tbills with autoroll enabled. Note: autoroll feature only rolls into the same duration tbill. It doesn't really matter to be honest. I originally started down...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Large LTT purchase
Replies: 11
Views: 181

Re: Large LTT purchase

Personally what I would do is buy all of them at the next auction (next one is June 6). Then you can roll them a little each year. So if you want to target a 5 year rollover you sell and rollover 1/5 for the next 5 years, then after then they just roll automatically. If you do a 10 year rollover, yo...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Good Article about Gold ETF's also Tax Loss Harvesting Tip
Replies: 7
Views: 171

Re: Good Article about Gold ETF's also Tax Loss Harvesting Tip

"Well, did you expect the asset you bought to behave the same?" - IRS auditor prob will never be worth their effort to enforce. Until you show me someone who has actually been audited for this, precedent set in the courts, or some clarification from the IRS explaining what "substantially identical"...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Good Article about Gold ETF's also Tax Loss Harvesting Tip
Replies: 7
Views: 171

Re: Good Article about Gold ETF's also Tax Loss Harvesting Tip

"Well, did you expect the asset you bought to behave the same?" - IRS auditor prob will never be worth their effort to enforce. Until you show me someone who has actually been audited for this, precedent set in the courts, or some clarification from the IRS explaining what "substantially identical"...
by pmward
Thu May 23, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 19
Views: 399

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Haha, yeah and if people sold their long bonds or didn't rebalance when they were down would be seriously missing out this year. Long bonds are the strongest asset at the moment, and just hit a new yearly high today, the highest they've been since the end of 2017. In real after inflation terms the P...